In the spring of 2018, the Minnesota Vikings felt like they had a contender. A year earlier, the Vikings had the best defense in the NFL and a group of emerging young offensive weapons. They went 13-3 and lost in the NFC Championship game; it felt like they were a quarterback away from putting it all together.
The Vikings signed Kirk Cousins to fill the void, but he fell short of the ultimate goal of winning the Super Bowl. The Cousins experience lasted six full seasons before Minnesota moved on this spring.
That decision changed the landscape of the franchise.
But in the aftermath of the NFL draft, the Vikings are one quarterback away from becoming a contender again. Still, we might not know the answer to who that quarterback is until 2025.
Last weekend brought plenty of excitement about what the Vikings could be this season. Minnesota selected J.J. McCarthy with the 10th-overall pick and traded up for edge rusher Dallas Turner with their second first-round selection. Draft pundits have debated both decisions to trade up, but it’s the latest step toward building the foundation for a true contender.
The Vikings entered this offseason with the foundational pieces on offense. While Cousins left, Minnesota still had elite weapons in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, along with a pair of cornerstone tackles in Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. The addition of Aaron Jones in free agency added some experience to the running game. With Kevin O’Connell at the controls, the offense – which finished 10th in yards and 22nd in points scored last season – has the feel of a sleeping giant.
But while the offense was ready to pop, the defense needed some work. Brian Flores jerry-rigged the Vikings to be in the middle of the pack but needed more talent to elevate them to the next level. They signed Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Blake Cashman in free agency and were determined to add another impact player in the draft.
Many believed the Vikings acquired the 23rd-overall pick from the Houston Texans to get their quarterback, and there were reports that the Vikings made a generous offer to the New England Patriots to move up for Drake Maye. But when they didn’t need to offer that pick to select McCarthy, it provided another opportunity to get an elite player in the draft.
With 14 offensive players going off the board to open the draft, the top defensive players slid. When Turner was available at No. 17, the Vikings packaged a 2024 fifth-round pick, a 2025 third-rounder, and a 2025 fourth-rounder to move up from pick 23 to get him.
Add in the cost of trading with the Houston Texans to acquire pick 23, which included the No. 42 and No. 188 picks in this year’s draft and a second-round pick in 2025, and many felt like it was too expensive. However, it was an investment in a young player at a premium position to build the infrastructure.
If Turner hits, the Vikings will have filled an important role, plus the ammunition to fill other needs in 2025. The Vikings still have their 2025 first-round pick and will enter 2025 with $102.4 million in cap space. Although that number will go down with expected contract extensions for Darrisaw and Justin Jefferson, it provides an avenue to take some massive swings in free agency to make Minnesota’s next quarterback as comfortable as possible.
The question now is who that quarterback will be.
All signs point to McCarthy as that player after the Vikings invested a top-10 pick in him. But while many believe that Sam Darnold is a house of cards for McCarthy to tip over, it feels like the Vikings have a bigger picture in mind.
“There’s no reason why we would put any kind of standards or say, ‘Hey, this is going to happen,’” O’Connell said in an interview with NFL Network last weekend. “Anytime you start making projections on what you think may happen at the quarterback position, you can run into some trouble.”
ESPN’s Kevin Siefert echoed O’Connell’s comments when he reported that the Vikings have several individual benchmarks that McCarthy needs to clear to become the starter. As if that wasn’t proof enough, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said this in his Thursday press conference:
A lot of times when we go back over history and say ‘These quarterbacks have missed,’ there’s a lot of hands that are dirty in that regard. And we’re going to make sure that our hands are clean and give him the best opportunity he can be in this offense.
Vikings history seems to validate Adofo-Mensah’s statement. Minnesota rolled Tarvaris Jackson out at the end of the 2006 season, and he struggled, leading to a failed pick and the eventual recruitment of Brett Favre.
Donovan McNabb wasn’t an effective bridge in 2011, and Christian Ponder made the final 11 starts. However, Minnesota had moved on from him by the end of the 2014 season.
Then there’s Teddy Bridgewater, who spent the first two games behind Matt Cassel before being thrust into action in the third game of the 2014 season.
Vikings fans probably see a similar situation with Darnold, who struggled as a starter with the New York Jets and the Carolina Panthers. However, Minnesota has been bullish on Darnold’s potential in their infrastructure.
“I think his best football is ahead of him because of how he’s handled the last couple of years,” O’Connell said in March. “Whether it’s going 4-2 down the stretch in Carolina in ‘22 or when you turn on the tape of his work in San Francisco, you can tell Kyle [Shanahan], Brian Griese, they did a great job in the next phase of his career. Fundamentals, techniques, things that you look for to see growth. I’m excited to get going with Sam.”
If O’Connell believes he can get the best out of Darnold, it might set up McCarthy to follow Daunte Culpepper‘s blueprint. The Vikings selected Culpepper with the 11th-overall pick in the 1999 NFL Draft. However, he spent his rookie season behind Randall Cunningham and Jeff George before leading Minnesota to the NFC Championship game in his first year as a starter in 2000.
Darnold has enough experience to keep the starting job the entire season. Even if he gets hurt or is ineffective, the Vikings still have Nick Mullens, who drove fans mad with his eight interceptions. Still, he averaged 370 yards and threw six touchdowns in three starts last season.
That would lead the Vikings through 2024 and give them time for a thorough evaluation of McCarthy. If he thrives, McCarthy could be under center of a loaded team in 2025. If he struggles, Minnesota could look to take a swing elsewhere, picking up the next disgruntled quarterback or even going all in to take a quarterback in one of the next two drafts.
That’s why the McCarthy pick was so intriguing. The Vikings didn’t sell the farm to get him. While there is some risk, they have enough talent and wiggle room to be okay if he doesn’t pan out. Either way, Minnesota has entered One Quarterback Away mode again. Now, it’s just a question of who that quarterback will be.
