For years the listeners of our Football Machine Vikings podcast have sent in amazing Twitter questions, and far too often we’ve had to leave many of them on the cutting room floor because of time. No longer! Each week we’ll pull some questions that didn’t make the cut and address them in this space.
When Elflien comes back where do you think he plays? Does the rook give up his spot or does Dozier get replaced?
— Ryan (@Antigravity19) November 4, 2020
This question was asked before Minnesota’s onslaught of the Lions where they rushed for 275 yards. There’s no way Ezra Cleveland gives up his right guard spot now, not when the offensive line is playing this well and the rookie’s confidence is building. I think the Vikings may ride the hot hand(s) up front into Chicago and see what happens.
Mike Zimmer has been mum on what Pat Elflein‘s role might be going forward, and the fact that he found himself in trade rumors could mean the team was looking to unload him at the deadline. If Elflein sees the field again, presumably it would be at left guard in place of Dakota Dozier, who grades out as the sixth-worst guard in the NFL. But even Dozier has been playing well during this two-game stretch.
The reality is that neither Elflein or Dozier are likely staples of the future, even though the team has shown loyalty to both over the past couple years. Since both are free agents this offseason, it’s reasonable that the Vikings would simply play whichever one looks better in practice.
Zim said this is a run first team which we knew. Do you guys think Zim even wanted Kirk? I know he had a statment at the combine the year they signed Kirk about hurting his defense. Do you think this move was 90% Rick 10% Zim? If we are a run first team why waste Cap space.
— David Rose (@bigrose9) November 4, 2020
I think Mike Zimmer was fed up with quarterback instability. Physically, three of Zimmer’s starters — Matt Cassel, Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford — had gotten hurt, and Cousins was a pillar of durability. Contractually, the Vikings wanted somebody long-term, and the only quarterback who might have merited a multi-year deal at that time was Case Keenum, who I’m fairly confident gave Zimmer ulcers when he went off script.
Cousins was perceived as an upper-echelon quarterback at the time and, most importantly, was available. If either Keenum or Bridgewater had been under contract for another season, the Vikings might’ve rolled the dice on one of those two, but paying them as free agents meant investing in either overvalued or unpredictable assets.
In some ways Cousins was perfect for Zimmer’s run-first vision because of his excellence at play-action combined with his ability to throw the deep ball, and the 2019 season exhibited that. But run-first teams are always going to have games where they’re forced to come back (just ask the Seahawks), so investing in quarterback play was still necessary if the Vikings were serious about winning a Super Bowl, which they were in 2018. It would’ve been irresponsible at that juncture to risk playing a cheaper, less talented veteran when the championship window was closing.
Which position would it make the most sense to address in the draft if we were to keep our current position of #10 in the first
— James Kunau (@James1297) November 4, 2020
Since this question was asked, the Vikings slipped down to 12th in draft position with Sunday’s win, which takes them further out of contention for a top-end quarterback, so let’s pretend that QB is off the table. What position should the Vikings draft?
On offense, you can’t go wrong with offensive tackle since Riley Reiff will either be gone or in a contract year, but I’m not sure it’s as deep a tackle class as last year. Unlike 2020, there are more upper-tier guards projected to go early, but the Vikings have never invested high picks there. The most fun selection would be Kyle Pitts, the Florida tight end. It feels increasingly likely that Kyle Rudolph‘s future is ticking down in Minnesota, Irv Smith Jr. could use some help, and Pitts is a crazy-talented pass catcher. He would need to figure out how to block, though.
On defense, I think the Vikings should keep rebuilding the secondary, as redundant as it seems. Holton Hill could be on the way out, while Mike Hughes might be entering a contract year with a bad neck. Anthony Harris could walk in free agency, while Harrison Smith will be entering his own contract year. Their defensive line will be fine if Michael Pierce and Danielle Hunter come back full strength; same goes for Anthony Barr at linebacker. But those strengths can fall apart with an unreliable pass defense. Zimmer may have another project on his hands.
What are (non cut) creative ways for the team to save cap space next year? What contracts can be restructured? Barr, Hunter, Smith, Rudolph, or Thielen? Extend Harris with a large signing bonus and low salary per year? Also, will Hollins ever get playing time this season?
— Michael Chau (@Miketchau) November 4, 2020
This will be a huge part of the 2021 offseason: How to improve the team and still stay under the cap. The league has agreed to keep the cap floor at $175 million. It could rise with better-than-expected revenues, but that can’t be assumed. (I’m sure the NFL wouldn’t mind adding two extra playoff teams for more TV revenue.) Under those parameters, the Vikings are over $6 million past the projected cap. In reality, they’ll probably have to shed salary through cuts. If they release Rudolph, Reiff and Shamar Stephen, that’s $20 million saved.
In a world where the Vikings can’t cut anybody, I think Smith is a clear restructure/extend candidate to save something like $5 million. Maybe Reiff is, too, with the way he’s playing. They could play some hardball with Rudolph and ask him to take a pay cut since he’s no longer worth his $9.45 million cap hit, and I think he’d be forced to consider. The Vikings will also have more contract leverage over the injured Anthony Barr, who may be asked to restructure his $15.5 million cap hit with only $7.8 million dead. Presumably, the team has an option to convert some of Thielen’s salary to signing bonus, as they’ve done with Hunter and Eric Kendricks in the past. That could save another $5 million, give or take. Those four moves should give them enough to sign a draft class and negotiate with Brian O’Neill about an extension.
And the fact that Tajae Sharpe remains on the roster over my man Alexander Hollins is a travesty!
