Locks
NBA – Mavs/Jazz Over 222 (-110):
These two squads are running it back two nights after the Donovan Mitchell-less Utah Jazz rocked the Dallas Mavericks by 14 points. Well, this time he’s back and to me, he’s worth two-plus points with his ability to score, generate pace, and make plays. As long as Luka Doncic plays (and hopefully Kristaps Porzingis as well) this game should sail over the 222 mark.
NBA – Malik Beasley Over 20.5 Points (-110):
As soon as Karl-Anthony Towns went down with the wrist injury and contracted COVID, I realized the Minnesota Timberwolves were going to have a tough time scoring.
Boy was I right.
This team is tough to watch night-in and night-out, and with no D’Angelo Russell in the lineup, we’ve had to endure even more Josh Okogie three-point attempts than normal. Keep an eye on Russell’s status tonight, but if he can’t go I expect Beasley to be aggressive once again. And even if Russell plays I still think there is value to Beasley’s over on points — he plays way better at home.
BONUS PICK: Sixers -7 @ Wolves (if Embiid plays)
If Joel Embiid plays, I’m rolling with the Sixers -7. Even if he doesn’t, I still might do it, but keep an eye on who’s actually going to play in this game before making any bets. No Embiid means this is a degenerate pick. But write this in as a lock if he plays and DLo doesn’t.
NCAA Basketball – Iowa +2.5 @ Illinois (-110):
Neither team comes into this game off particularly great performances. But I think there’s a big discount available on Iowa with them losing in strange fashion at home to Indiana, a game where the Hawkeyes went on an 11-minute field goal drought.
That can’t be considered anything but a freak anomaly for the 3rd best offensive efficiency team in the country, but it definitely fuels a misperception in the market to capitalize on here. Illinois just isn’t getting enough contributions from role players, and it’s reflected in significant drops in their offensive and defensive efficiency ratings in this stretch where they’ve lost 2-of-3 at home.
I think this presents an excellent bounce-back opportunity for Iowa and is probably the best buy-low spot there will be on the Hawkeyes all season. This should be a great game to watch, and I actually think Iowa is worth a shot on the moneyline at +125 as well as getting the 2.5 points.
NCAA – Basketball Ohio/Buffalo over 160 (-110):
There are several MAC teams this season where defense is definitely not a priority, and we have two of them in action here. Ohio has a lot of offensive firepower led by sneaky NBA prospect Jason Preston, ranking 20th in offensive efficiency and 26th in effective field goal percentage.
But their defensive efficiency rank of 252nd is what I think will really cost them in this game. Buffalo isn’t elite from an offensive metrics standpoint – 66th in points per possession – but they have the 8th most possessions per game which fuels their high-scoring games and will be the key metric here against that bad Ohio defense.
These teams are a combined 13-3 to the over in MAC play this year, and I think when these styles combine we’ll see a true shootout.
NCAA Basketball – UW-Green Bay @ Cleveland State -3.5 (-110):
I was on this Cleveland State team last Friday when they were laying this exact number at home against Milwaukee.
The Vikings covered that number with ease, and I think they do the same here against a Green Bay team who is much worse than their counterparts down the road in Milwaukee. I think a reason for this short spread is that Green Bay has been covering a lot of numbers as an underdog, 8-4-1 ATS when catching points. But this is a much shorter number than most of what they’ve been covering, and against a much better team.
Cleveland State is particularly better in the first leg of their home doubleheaders, with an 11.3 point average better margin, going 3-0 ATS in those spots, and covering the number by a 12.7 point margin. They are still being undervalued and I have this as closer to a 10-point Vikings win, so lay the short price.
NCAA Basketball – Boise State/Colorado State Over 145 (-110):
It seems the oddsmakers couldn’t look past the result from the first leg of these teams’ doubleheader to the underlying metrics, or to the fact that totals are zig-zag candidates as well.
I’d first point out that both the Broncos and Rams are excellent on offense. Boise ranks 16th in offensive efficiency, Colorado State is 68th. The Broncos are 61st in effective field goal rate, the Rams are all the way up at 18th. When these teams played on Wednesday the total was set at 148, and it finished 14 points short as Boise just couldn’t shoot.
What this new total fails to reflect is how much the scoring jumps for both these teams in their second leg games. All of CSU’s second legs have been higher scoring, by an average of 10.2 points. Same story for Boise, with theirs increasing by an average of 13.2 points. I think that trend continues here, and this number adjusting down makes it even more attractive.
Degenerates
NBA – Knicks/Cavs Over 208 (-110):
208 is a pretty low number for an NBA game, even with these 2 horrible teams playing. Even D3 games get scored in like crazy sometimes so I’m trusting my gut solely based on how low this number is and how equal these two teams are on paper. Expect a 112-102 type game that we just barely get the over in… but get it nonetheless.
Tiny Nick is 126-72 ATS (+51.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
