Locks
NCAA Basketball – NC State @ Syracuse -5 (-110):
There’s not much to like about the spot for NC State here. Their 2-5 ATS record in conference games was bad enough news, but leading scorer Devon Daniels was lost for the season this week with a torn ACL.
Syracuse has been very up and down this season, but this looks like an up spot for them. They’ve been much better at home, winning the last two by 18 and 26 points. NC State is 0-3-1 ATS as a road underdog on the year, and I see this depleted team really struggling in their first game without Daniels.
If the Orange can find their footing offensively against a Wolfpack defense that’s 330th in efficiency over their last three games, they should cover this number with ease.
NCAA Basketball – Illinois St. @ Drake -18 (-110):
I’m sticking with the best ATS record out there, one last time at least. This is a big spread, but among Drake’s 15 straight wins and 12 straight covers to start the season, there have been five home wins by 20 or more points. The Bulldogs really look like an unstoppable force, and their offense that’s 6th in efficiency should have an easy time against an Illinois State team that’s 279th in defensive efficiency.
There’s also precedent for the Redbirds getting blown out, as they dropped two games at the other elite MVC team, Loyola-Chicago, by 30 and 31 points. Laying this many points is not my favorite thing to do, but Drake might be my favorite team of the season so far, and I have to back them once more.
NCAA Basketball – Morgan St./Coppin St. Over 155.5 (-110):
Alright, I know I took this yesterday and it missed by a half-point but hear me out: That game started the slowest I’ve ever seen and went on to still almost hit the over with teams combining to shoot a low 39%.
Let me remind you, these teams played a doubleheader just two weeks ago, with the games finishing at 164 and 168 total points, flying over the total of 153 that was posted in both games. Morgan State, owners of the 89th most efficient offense nationally, is a strong over team in general with a 7-3 record to the over, by an average of 5.7 points, and all of their conference games have flown over the total.
It’s a similar story for Coppin State. They’ve played in nine straight over games before yesterday and are 329th in points allowed per game. They don’t play great basketball in the MEAC, but at least they don’t play much defense so take the over here.
NBA – Nets – 6.5 @ Wizards (-110):
Anyone with NBA TV, this is your chance to switch back and forth between the two worst teams in the NBA; the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Washington Wizards.
The Wizards look like someone just stole their lunch money and the Brooklyn Nets are an absolute bully. As always with the NBA, keep an eye on the injury report, and if everyone’s playing or even if the spread adjusts to Brooklyn’s favor with someone out, take the Nets.
NCAA Basketball – Elon/Delaware Under 133 (-110):
As I was trying to make sense of everything that’s been happening in college basketball, I stumbled across Elon who has really struggled to score as if late. Elon hasn’t broken the 60-point mark since December, and when these two teams squared off yesterday, it wasn’t exactly a shoot-out. I expect that trend to continue today in what should be a low scoring affair.
NCAA Basketball – Loyola-Chicago @ Missouri St. +7 (-110):
Isiaih Mosley and this Missouri State team are no pushovers, so to see them catching seven points at home was too good for me to pass up. Loyola-Chicago hasn’t run into Drake yet so we really don’t know how they stack up, but Missouri State played Drake close, and I think they’re capable of surprising people in this one on this Sunday afternoon.
Missouri State moneyline could be fun at home but I’m taking the 7 points.
NCAA Basketball – Sam Houston St./Stephen F. Austin Over 150 (-110):
This game should be a closely fought battle for the top of the Southland conference, and it’s between two teams who love to put up points. Sam Houston is a strong over team in conference games at 5-2 as they play at the 11th fastest pace in the country, as well as take the 30th most 3-pointers.
Combine that with their defense that allows 1.006 points per possession (227th nationally) and you have a recipe for overs against most teams, but particularly Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks are 6-0 to the over in conference games, play at the 25th fastest pace, and own the 2nd best shooting percentage in the country. It’s rare to find a matchup of two teams who both score over 81 PPG and allow over 71 PPG, so when combined with their styles of play I think it all adds up to this total being a little low.
NCAA Basketball – SMU @ Houston -9.5 (-110):
This is admittedly a pretty big number, but this Houston team is red hot. Not only are the Cougars 8-2 ATS in conference games, but they’re also 6-1 against double-digit spreads and have won their last five games by an average of 21 points.
Included in that run is a 14-point win on the road at SMU where Houston was dominant in spite of a poor shooting day. Offense has not been a problem for the Cougars since then, ranking 15th in offensive efficiency over their last three games. I’ve been skeptical of Houston recently because of the big spreads in their games, but they keep proving themselves and this is the lowest number for them in six games.
I’ll roll with the Cougars here against an SMU team that has covered once in 2021.
NBA – Malik Beasley Over 19.5 Points (-110):
Let’s keep the “Malik Beasley at home” train rolling until he doesn’t cover one or two. Without Towns, this team has been lost and Beasley, Edwards, and Russell are honestly the only guys capable of getting their own shot on this whole roster. Look for Malik to keep rolling tonight in what should be Town’s last absence.
Degenerates
NBA – Cavs -3 @ Wolves (-110):
We’ve been pretty unlucky lately on some ridiculous college basketball finishes but one thing that hasn’t changed is the Wolves are still terrible. Even a bad team like the Cleveland Cavaliers should be able to take care of business easily against the Karl-Anthony Towns-less Wolves. I would have this in the locks but my heart wouldn’t let me do it twice in a row.
Tiny Nick is 131-76 ATS (+51.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
