Locks
NFL (3 Units) 2 Team 6 Point Teaser; Cowboys -1, Raiders +0.5 (-110):
Dallas Cowboys -1 vs. New York Giants
Alright, it’s time to drop the analytics and give it a little gut check. The Cowboys have been looked sharp early in the season and in a home game against the Giants I simply expect that to continue. Dak Prescott is a serious MVP candidate and this offensive can put up 30 against anyone. Match that with Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs and this young defense that continues to improve and you have a serious contender in the NFC. As for the Giants, well, they lost to the Falcons and Daniel Jones is their quarterback. I’ll take my chances with the Cowboys this time.
Las Vegas Raiders +0.5 vs. Chicago Bears
The Raiders are a lot of fun and Derek Carr continues to lead the league in passing yards so far this year. But are they an actual contender in the AFC? To be honest, I’m not sure yet but their only loss came against a strong Los Angeles Chargers team and this pick really isn’t about how good the Raiders are but more about how I think Justin Fields will struggle. Carr knows that his 14-point output a week ago won’t get it done but let’s not count on that as the Raiders know how to put up points quickly. Fields is going to have a hard time keeping up, especially if he doesn’t even attempt 20 passes once again.
NFL (1 Unit) Chargers -2 vs. Browns (-110): 3:05 PM CT on CBS
This is a Minnesota based website so let’s talk about last week’s Vikings/Browns game. That was one of the worst offensive games I have witnessed and I’m not entirely convinced it was because of elite defensive play. Add a lingering left-shoulder injury to Baker Mayfield’s list of challenges and I start to worry about the Browns ability to move the football consistently. As I said on my podcast, I have a similar injury to what Mayfield is dealing with and I couldn’t imagine landing on it, especially with a large human being trying to inflict pain.
As for the Chargers, I absolutely love Justin Herbert. Not only does he have an absolute cannon but his humble leadership style seems to have won over the locker room in only his second NFL season. Herbert plus this over-achieving defense will continue to surprise people atop the AFC West and I’m all for it. A division with Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, and Carr is bound to put up some points, and I expect the Chargers to do just that on this glorious Sunday afternoon.
NFL (1 Unit) Dallas Cowboys -7 vs. NY Giants (-110): 3:25 PM CT on Fox
I know, I know, I put this in the tease section already but that’s how confident I am in the Cowboys to take care of business at home against this lousy Giants team. Read what I said previously or don’t, it doesn’t matter because the Cowboys are winning this game by double digits.
NFL (1 Unit) Green Bay Packers -3 @ Cincinnati Bengals (-110): 12 PM CT on Fox
This game has trap written all over it and I’m diving right into it. The Bengals have 3 wins so far this season so let’s take a quick look at those 3 wins. In their week 1 matchup against the Vikings they were gifted the win on a blown Dalvin Cook fumble call. In Week 2 they lost to the Bears in a game that Andy Dalton and Justin Fields combined for not good. In Week 3 they beat the ghost of Ben Roethlisberger and in Week 4 it took a wild comeback on TNF against the Urban Meyer lead dumpster fire Jags.
It seems a little disrespectful to one of the best quarterbacks of all time to have such a small spread here but it’s just a matter of which Aaron Rodgers shows up. If the Packers take control early look for them to keep their foot on the gas. As long as the Bengals don’t get their crowd into it early I trust Green pay to take care of business in what should be a relatively easy win for last year’s NFC runner-ups.
MLB (0.75 Units) Astros/White Sox Over 8.5 (-110): 7:07 PM CT on FS1
This total reflects a game one total of battling aces more than it does a sweep opportunity for the Astros. Houston’s bats have been hot and Chicago should get a little boost from their home crowd. Neither pitcher here is a slouch but neither is an ace either so I’m rolling with my gut and taking the over here. I also think the Astros sweep in this one but I’m not going to make an actual pick of it.
MLB (1 Unit) Rays/Red Sox Over 8 (-110): 3:07 PM CT on MLBN
This is pretty much the same situation as the other game I just talked about. 8 is a low number especially one game after these teams combined for 20 total runs just two days ago. This game is also in Fenway which is a hitter’s ballpark with a shortened left field (i.e. the Green Monster). Look for Nelson Cruz, J.D. Martinez, and Co. to get a hold of a few en route to an over.
Degenerates
NFL K.C. Chiefs/Buffalo Bills Over 56 (-110): 7:20 PM CT on NBC
When these two teams faced off in the playoffs earlier this year it was a lot of fun. That game hit 62 even though the Bills couldn’t get into rhythm. I expect them to have a little more luck this time around against a Kansas City defense that looked horrible through the first month of the season. And we know no one is stopping Patrick Mahomes so what’s more fun than counting points on a Sunday night with 2 great young quarterbacks squaring off. The only reason I didn’t lock this one is because 56 is a high number but I still will be making a small play on this one to finish my Sunday.
Tiny Nick is 394-305 ATS (+85.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
