Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) St. Louis Cardinals/Los Angeles Dodgers Over 7.5 (-110): 7:15 PM on TBS
With Adam Wainwright and Max Scherzer combining for 77 total years of age, this might be the oldest starting pitching duo in a playoff game ever. But I think these ageless wonders are vulnerable tonight against excellent offenses, and we should see enough runs to get over this low total.
The season series between the L.A. Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals wasn’t particularly high-scoring, averaging 8.8 runs per game while going just 4-3 over this total. But they last played one day before St. Louis went on their 17-game winning streak. This is a different Cardinals team now, one that found its offense in that win streak where they averaged 6.8 runs per game. Since that streak began, they are 3rd in batting average, have hit the 4th most home runs, and scored the 2nd most runs in baseball.
While they’ve definitely had their difficulties with Scherzer. The Dodgers starter has not looked right to close the season, allowing 11 total runs in his past 2 starts. Wainwright meanwhile allowed 4 runs in his only start against the Dodgers this season and posted a 5.79 ERA in his last 3 starts of the year. Even without Max Muncy, this L.A. lineup is the scariest in baseball, so combined with the newfound pop of the Cardinals, I see enough runs to clear this total.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Units): St Louis Cardinals +200
For the most part, this is really just a play on the number that’s gone a little too high for a single-elimination scenario. Getting 2-to-1 with a Cardinals team that’s as hot as it is seems like a bargain. That’s especially true considering they’ve lost just one Adam Wainwright start since mid-July. They’ve given him an average of 5.9 runs of support during that stretch, and as I mentioned above their offense is only getting hotter. If the recent struggles for Max Scherzer continue into the postseason, then St. Louis is definitely live in this game.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 392-300 ATS (+88.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
