Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Clippers/Minnesota Timberwolves Under 215 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Overall consistency has not been an attribute of either of these teams. But they’ve definitely been consistent in playing low-scoring games.
Combined on the season, the Clippers and Timberwolves are 11-1 to the under against the closing total, and 8-3 under tonight’s number. They also have the 2nd and 3rd-lowest plus/minus numbers to the total, so neither team is getting close very often. It makes plenty of sense given that they’re both bottom-5 in true shooting percentage, effective field goal rate, and offensive efficiency, while also being top-7 in defensive efficiency.
All of those stats has this one looking like a brick fest. The Wolves are also without D’Angelo Russell and possibly Patrick Beverley for this game, slowing down an already struggling offense. It won’t be pretty basketball tonight at Target Center, and I see another under for these teams as a result.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Charlotte Hornets/Golden State Warriors Over 225.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
Despite the strong under trend to start the NBA season, I’m willing to make an over bet when this Charlotte Hornets team is involved.
The Hornets have the best mark to the over in the league at 6-2, with the 3rd-highest plus/minus. And while the Golden State Warriors are a strong under team with excellent defensive numbers, you can’t ignore that they’ve played Oklahoma City twice to pad those stats.
Because of how these teams shoot the ball, this is the kind of matchup that would see a total lined 10-12 points higher if not for the low-scoring start across the league. Both squads are top-5 in attempted 3-pointers and 3-point percentage, as well as bottom-5 in the number of attempts allowed from deep.
It’s going to be raining 3’s in this game from two teams that play at a fast pace – an excellent over recipe in general, but especially with Steph Curry involved. Sharp money ignored the league-wide scoring drought to get on the over early for this game, and I’m also seeing a more familiar NBA track meet here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 425-328 ATS (+85.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
