Locks
NBA – Andre Drummond Over 18.5 Points (-110):
If you can get a points total or rebounds for Andre Drummond tonight, take the over. It’s looking like the Minnsota Timberwolves will be without Karl-Anthony Towns once again so no one will have enough size to actually defend him. As long as Towns is out it should be another field day for Drummond inside.
NBA – Malik Beasley Over 20.5 Points (-110):
Malik has been a money machine with Towns out and that is bound to run out soon, so I’m going to ride it out while I can.
He’s hit his over in three consecutive games and outside of some road struggles, there is no reason to think he won’t break 20 points again tonight on a team that few scoring options outside of Anthony Edwards, 19, and D’Angelo Russell who returned two games ago from injury.
As always with the NBA, check the injury report before tip-off.
NCAA Basketball – Murray St. @ SE Missouri St. (+8)
This is just too many points for a team with a losing record overall and in conference play to be laying on the road.
It’s a tough spot for Murray St. regardless. They’re coming off a deflating one-point loss to Belmont on Saturday and won’t have an easy time getting up for this game. This should be a grind-it-out affair as SE Missouri St. plays at a pace that’s 258th in the country. Slow tempo and lower scoring always advantages the team catching points, especially when it’s more than two possessions worth.
Even though the Redhawks are nothing special, they’ve only lost one home game by this margin all season. And with Murray State’s 1-5 ATS road record, I just can’t see the Racers being dominant enough to cover this wide a margin so I’ll take the points.
NCAA Basketball – Duke/Miami Under 139 (-110):
This play is based on a fade of the Miami offense that I don’t think will be able to produce here. The leading scorer for the Hurricanes, Isaiah Wong, is iffy for this game with an ankle injury which only adds to their longer-term scoring woes. Miami hasn’t been able to crack the 60-point mark in four straight games, which has led to four straight going under the total for them.
It’s no wonder given they are 221st in pace, 262nd in effective field goal percentage, 268th in offensive efficiency, and 325th in 3-point percentage. Duke seems to be figuring a few things out offensively, but they’re still 3-1 to the under in ACC road games, all of which have been against much better offenses than Miami.
If the Hurricanes fail to reach 60 again this should be a dead under, so I’ll hold my nose and play this one under the total.
NBA – Bucks/Blazers Over 236 (-110):
The Milwaukee Bucks have been sailing over this number night after night the last two weeks so I’m honestly pretty curious as to how many points they can put up against a horrible Portland Trail Blazers defense. As long as Damian Lillard plays in this one the Blazers should be able to hold up their end of the bargain.
Check the injury report to make sure any key offensive pieces aren’t taking the night off and roll with the over.
Degenerates
NBA – Hawks/Lakers Over 218 (-110):
The Atlanta Hawks have been putting up big numbers since getting Trae Young back. The lowest output they’ve had in their last five has been 108 and against the Los Angeles Lakers, and that should be enough to get this game over 218. As long as the Lakers don’t have one of their insane defensive games, this one should ride out into the 220s pretty easily.
Tiny Nick is 133-80 ATS (+49.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
