Locks
NCAA Basketball – Akron/Toledo Over 149.5 (-110): 6 PM CST on ESPN+
It’s been a full month since Toledo has played a game that finished under this particular total, not surprising for the team that’s quietly 11th in offensive efficiency. Akron has been the much better defensive team, but they’ve struggled against Toledo — their first matchup had a combined 163 points in regulation before adding even more in overtime.
That was also Toledo’s only conference loss, something they’ll be looking to avenge here. As was the case in that first matchup and in general for these teams, 3-point shooting is what will drive this game over the total. Both teams are top-20 in threes attempted and made per game, a key metric to look at when handicapping a total.
Since all Toledo seems to do is play games in the 150s, I don’t see any reason for them to stop now, especially with these teams proving they can exploit each other offensively and the Rockets looking for revenge. Take the over in what is a fairly moderate total given the underlying metrics.
NCAA Basketball – Baylor -5.5 @ Texas (-110): 6 PM CST on ESPN
I don’t like to fade this Texas team, or any Big 12 contender, but I am eager to go against them here since Baylor may be the best team in the country. The Longhorns have been exposed recently in games against elite defenses, needing a buzzer-beater against West Virginia and then dropping two home games against good teams.
Overall they have not been a good bet lately, they are just 2-5 ATS in conference and 2-7 against the number in home games. But that’s not why I’m fading them today. Baylor is simply amazing.
It’s worth noting that Jericho Sims and Courtney Ramey appear likely to play in this one, which is good news for Texas, but it won’t be enough against Baylor and is creating a discounted price on the Bears. The closest final margin for Baylor all season has been eight points, which is where I think this number should be. They appeared to be looking ahead to this game against Auburn, so I’m expecting a focused effort and statement game from Baylor to really put their stamp on this season’s Big 12 situation.
NCAA Basketball – Penn State +9 @ Wisconsin (-110): 7:30 PM CST on Big Ten Network
I’m going to be honest, I didn’t look super far into this game, but I watched the whole game the last time these two teams played last week and I must be missing something. Penn State looked like a team with a lot of momentum in that one and I don’t see that fading away today.
Only one team has beaten Penn State by nine or more all year and it was Illinois, twice. Outside of that matchup, this team has been more than competitive and although their record hasn’t been great, another big win could go a big way for a team that has lost more close games than anyone this year.
NBA – Celtics -2.5 @ Warriors (-110): 9 PM CST on TNT
The Boston Celtics just had a hard loss against the Los Angeles Lakers in a game in which Kemba Walker just couldn’t get it going from the field. This feels like a nice bounce-back spot against a team that is pretty average on nights that Steph Curry doesn’t completely take the game over.
I expect Boston to bounce back and get a much-needed win on the road tonight against a Warriors team that has been kind of surprising — albeit against mostly weaker competition.
NCAA Basketball – Georgia/Auburn Over 159.5 (-110): 6 PM CST on SEC Network
This is a pretty high number, but pace is the key element of this game getting over the total.
Neither team is particularly special from an offensive efficiency standpoint, with Georgia at 161st and Auburn 100th, although the Tigers have been 32nd over their past three games. But pure possession volume compensates for both these teams as Auburn is 22nd in possessions per game while Georgia is 15th, a result of both teams being excellent on the offensive glass.
For Auburn, their massive increase in free throw volume with Sharife Cooper in the lineup has created overs in five of those seven games, including when these teams met three weeks ago for a 95-77 Auburn win. Georgia can be inconsistent, but when they play other high-tempo teams, the game flies over, and with Auburn wanting a statement game after their Baylor loss, I see a lot of fireworks in this one. These numbers tend to swing towards game time so lay off of anything over 163 if it streams up.
NCAA Basketball – Ball State/Buffalo Over 153 (-110): 5 PM CST on ESPN+
This play is about a return to more normal performances for both these teams after anomaly games their last times out.
Ball State had been on a 7-0 run to the over in MAC play until their last game. They are still very poor on defense, ranking 209th in defensive efficiency with a massive 1.103 points allowed per possession in their past three games. This is a fast-paced Buffalo offense that’s 6th in possessions per game and 3rd in offensive rebounding and should have an easy time against that defense, especially coming off only their third under game on the year.
These teams are a combined 20-5 to the over on the season, including their first matchup where they got over this total despite a poor shooting night from Buffalo. I see another high possessions game here where Buffalo can dominate the offensive glass and exploit the Ball State defense for another over.
NCAA Basketball – Eastern Kentucky +2.5 @ Jacksonville State (-110): 6 PM CST on ESPN+
After looking at numbers too much the last couple of weeks, I’ve decided to start going with my gut again on games I just have a good feeling about.
Eastern Kentucky has a legitimate shot at being a tournament team and they can’t lose games like this if they really plan on getting in and making a little noise. Either that or they’ll have to win the Ohio Valley Conference tournament to get in and I don’t see anyone else in this conference beating Belmont, so look for Eastern Kentucky to come ready to play tonight.
NCAA Basketball – Tennessee -3.5 @ Mississippi State (-110): 6 PM CST on ESPN
Tennessee is coming off back to back wins including a HUGE win at home against Kansas over the weekend.
The Volunteers bounced back after dropping two in a row to an interesting Florida and solid Missouri team. Tennessee is the better team on both sides of the ball in this one, especially on defense where they have yet to allow more than 75 points to an opponent all year.
Ole Miss has struggled mightily to score the ball, failing to score above 64 points in their last four games. Ole Miss is better at home than on the road, but this shouldn’t be a letdown game for Tennessee as they look to continue to extend their win streak. With a number this small, the foul game should be enough to get it over if it does end up being close, but I see this being more of a ten-point type game.
Degenerates
NBA – Blazers/Wizards Over 239.5 (-110): 7 PM CST
If this total was a little lower I would have put it in the locks, but the Washington Wizards have struggled at times to put up points so I’m going to roll with it — but with less units than a lock. These defenses are horrible and couldn’t stop a nosebleed so look for this game to be played like an All-Star game in the 240’s or higher.
NBA – Pistons @ Jazz (-110): 9 PM CST
This Detroit Pistons team is so bad, and that’s coming from a Minnesota Timberwolves fan. Blake Griffin looks more washed up than ever and the rest of this Detroit team has shown no cohesiveness or ability to finish games. This could turn into a blowout early with how the Utah Jazz have been playing as of late.
Again, I shy away from the locks on this one due to their 96-86 game just a couple of weeks ago but Utah should break the century mark easily tonight en route to a double-digit win.
Tiny Nick is 134-82 ATS (+48.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
