Locks
NCAA Basketball Colorado St./Wyoming Under 153 (-110): 8 PM CST
The last time we saw Colorado State, we were cashing a ticket on their over against Boise.
For that spot, I mentioned the zig-zag effect on the totals in Rams games, and this is another opportunity to exploit that but in reverse. All six first legs of Colorado State’s doubleheaders have been lower scoring than the second by an average of 13 fewer points. The Rams are actually 43rd in defensive efficiency, and the high scoring games they play in second legs have fueled a misperception that they’re an over team (in fact they’re 7-7 to the total with a slight plus/minus edge of 2.5 points to the under).
Against a Wyoming team that’s inconsistent at best offensively, I like the CSU defense to have another good performance and continue their zig-zag trend. Early action recognized this is too many points and hit the under as well, so hold your nose and cheer for defense.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – BYU -19 @ Portland (-110): 6 PM CST
You almost have to feel a little sorry for this Portland team because they’re really bad. The Pilots have an abysmal defensive efficiency ranking (326th), offensive efficiency ranking (309th), and just one cover in conference play when they gave up 116 points to Gonzaga but managed to only lose by 28 points.
Included in that futility is another 28-point loss to this BYU team, a game where the normally defensive-minded Cougars had their best offensive output of the season. With BYU having missed the cover in their last two games, they’re in need of a bounceback spot, and Portland should be easy pickings here.
The Cougars covered the spread of 23 points in the first matchup, and I’m not a believer that Portland being back home in an empty gym creates four points of value to a line, so this is a buying opportunity on BYU for me.
NCAA Basketball – Minnesota/Rutgers Under 141 (-110): 8 PM CST on FS1
Another under bet isn’t much fun, but it’s impossible to ignore the offensive futility and slow pace of these teams.
In their combined past 16 games, the under is 13-3 including 10-6 under this particular number. Not surprising when you look at statistics like Rutgers being 187th in pace and only allowing 0.79 points per possession over their last three games, 9th best of any team in the country.
It gets really ugly with the Gophers’ offense. They’ve fallen to 293rd in field goal percentage and 303rd from behind the arc, so it’s no wonder they average only 62.8 points in road games. This Rutgers team is prone to long shooting slumps, and their strong interior defense matches up well against a Minnesota team with no choice but to try to score inside — creating the perfect recipe for an under.
NCAA Basketball – Murray St. @ Morehead St. +3 (-110): 6 PM CST on ESPN+
I’m utterly confused by this number, as it opened with Morehead State. a 1 point favorite, and has moved all the way to here. Morehead has been the much better team in Ohio Valley play, having won nine in a row, covered seven in a row, and beat Murray State on the road as a 13-point underdog just a month ago — one of five straight up wins where they were the underdog.
The Eagles are a cover machine with a 13-4 ATS record including 9-2 as an underdog, while Murray State has struggled in this spot as a favorite, just 4-8 when laying points. Morehead plays great defense, giving up the 29th fewest points per game and boasting a defensive efficiency rating in their last three games that’s 7th in the country at 0.777 points per possession.
I think that defense keeps them in this game and inside the number, but with line moves through zero be sure to watch for injury/COVID news that might be fueling the swing.
Tiny Nick is 144-85 ATS (+55.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
