Locks
NBA – Grizzlies/Warriors under 221(-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
It was a season series of 3-0 to the under when these two teams got together – including twice when the closing total was exactly this number – and I think we’re in for another here.
We saw the playoff defensive intensity pick up and the pace slow down on Wednesday when these teams had their first play-in games, resulting in extremely low final scores by NBA standards. I’d expect nothing different n a win-or-go-home scenario tonight, especially since the Golden State Warriors 5th in defensive rating this season and the Memphis Grizzlies are 6th.
In addition to the season series being 3-0 to the under, there are other big trends to note, including the Warriors being the 2nd best under team in the league at 58.9% overall and 59.4% when favored. I see a veteran Golden State team dictating the style of this game at home, therefore giving more weight to those trends. Sharp bettors weren’t fooled by the books dangling this moderate total and immediately jumped on the under, so given the stakes and the trends, I’m doing the same.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 260-168 ATS (+81.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
