Locks
NBA – Trail Blazers/Nuggets over 227 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
After putting up 232 points on Saturday night in their first game, I’m inclined to believe the high scoring between these teams will continue or even increase. The Denver Nuggets better have realized how overmatched they are in the backcourt with the Portland Trail Blazers’ star guard duo putting up 55 points, and accept the fact that they’ll need to play more up-tempo in order to keep up with Portland’s prolific scoring.
The Blazers finished the season on an offensive tear, and it doesn’t show signs of slowing down. But Denver has the capability as the 4th-best shooting and 6th-best offensive efficiency team to score with them. I’m counting on positive regression from the opening game to boost scoring for the Nuggets, as they shot only 30% from deep and Michael Porter Jr. went 1-10 from beyond the arc.
Denver also only got 4 points on free throws, whereas during the season series they averaged over 15 points from the charity stripe. So with improved offense from Denver, continuation of Portland’s red-hot offense, and a total that didn’t adjust at all from the first game, I’ll take the over.
MLB – Cardinals/White Sox under 4.5 First 5 Innings (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
I’m seeing really good value on this number, especially with the pitchers involved and the offensive struggles for both teams. With the full game over/under at 8.5 runs I’d prefer not to take the under on an even-numbered total, but the first-five being more than half the full-game total creates a lot of natural value.
You’re also able to isolate the starters in the game this way, creating even more value with how they’ve been pitching. In 13 starts between them this season Kwang Hyun Kim and Lance Lynn have allowed an astoundingly low combined total of just 15 earned runs. They should be able to hold down these offenses that have struggled lately, with both teams combining to average 3.8 runs in the first five innings of their last five games.
So with two hot pitchers facing two cold offenses, I really like being able to isolate this first-five total and think we’re in for a very low-scoring start to the game.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 262-171 ATS (+80.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
