Locks
NBA – Bucks/Heat First Half over 110.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
The Miami Heat must be happy to be home for this Game 3 because right now they look like they couldn’t stand on South Beach and throw the ball into the Atlantic. That’s particularly true for Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, whose 49.7% and 57% regular season shooting performances have cratered in the playoffs to just 25% and 34% respectively.
I’m a believer that some home cooking will lead to positive regression for them and the Heat collectively, a 47% shooting team managing just 38% in this series. If Miami comes out fired up in front of the home crowd as I expect they will, that improvement should materialize right away and contribute to a high-scoring first half.
We definitely saw the Milwaukee Bucks firing on all cylinders in Game 2, so I’m confident they’ll do their part in getting over this total, especially considering they’re averaging 68 points in the first half of all their games against the Heat this season. With consistency from the Bucks and improvement that has to be coming for Miami, I see a lot of points scored early in this one.
NBA – Nuggets/Trail Blazers over 227.5 (-110): 9:30 PM CT on NBATV
There’s no way I’m getting off the over train in this series. I think it’s only just getting going with the games now shifting to Portland.
Power ratings of these teams based on the season series have been messing with the heads of oddsmakers and sharp bettors in a big, big way. Case-in-point: Game 2 when the total opened around this same number and was bet down 4 full points by sharps who saw a season series go 2-1 under this number. They’re at it again in this one, moving the number down by 2 points and I’m going against the move once more here.
What’s ignored about those low-scoring regular-season games is they came before the Portland Trail Blazers turned it on offensively towards the end of the season, posting the best offensive efficiency and rating numbers in the NBA down the stretch. This is simply a different Portland team, averaging 123.8 points in their last six home games, and now operating on playoff Dame Time. Defense has been scarce in these two games with the Denver Nuggets shooting 52% and willing to play at Portland’s pace, so I see no difference between the other games and expect another over here tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 267-172 ATS (+84.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
