Locks
MLB – Reds Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-110): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports WI
The Milwaukee Brewers lead the NL Central by virtue of excellent starting pitching, but tonight’s starter Brett Anderson has not been doing much to help the cause. His ERA of 4.99 is a result of long innings, and he has only made it to the 5th inning twice in his last seven starts.
That includes his last outing against these Cincinnati Reds, where he gave up five runs in three innings as Cincy plated seven in total. The Reds lineup is finally all together after being decimated by injuries, and it’s showing in the box score, as they’ve exceeded this total in eight of their past ten games and are averaging 6.6 per game over that stretch.
They’re capable of a hit parade against most any pitcher, but especially Anderson who has faced an average of 5.5 batters per inning in his last three starts. With the struggling Luis Castillo going for Cincy there should be plenty of scoring in this one, but I like the Reds lineup much more than Milwaukee’s, so I’ll isolate them to go over this team total.
NBA – Bucks Team Total Under 110.5 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on TNT
The full game total has shifted massively during this series with a 20-point downward adjustment since Game 1, and deservedly so as the series is 4-0 to the under. But that erases too much value for me to play the full game total even though I think it will end up under, so I’m isolating the Milwaukee Bucks here to continue doing what they’ve been doing all series.
The Bucks haven’t cleared this number yet, averaging 96.5 PPG and still shooting an ice-cold 26.7% from deep through four games. I see absolutely no reason why that would suddenly change tonight, especially in a game where the Bucks would be smart to continue playing a physical style and grind the game down with the Brooklyn Nets missing two of their Big 3.
I’ve yet to figure out exactly why the offense has dried up for Milwaukee. But until they prove they can shoot, I’ll continue to expect more of the same and bet them to stay under this number again.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 295-192 ATS (+89.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
