Locks
MLB – Diamondbacks Team Total Under 3.5 (-110): 8:40 PM CT on Bally Sports AZ
It’s been pretty easy to pick on the Arizona Diamondbacks lately during their 17-game losing streak. They finally notched a win last night against one of the poor starting pitchers for the Milwaukee Brewers, and tonight looks like the perfect opportunity for them to revert back to their usually awful selves.
Brewers starter Freddy Peralta is a great candidate to bring them back to earth, with a 1.96 ERA in June and only 7 total runs allowed in his last 7 starts. Teams have also failed to clear this team total in his last four starts, including these Diamondbacks who Peralta dominated earlier this month in a 5-1 Brewers victory.
Arizona struggles to hit right-handed pitching with just a .225 average and has been eaten up by quality righties three times in the last week, which are the three most recent times they’ve been held under this team total. The Brewers can be a tough team to trust overall, but I love Peralta’s season thus far and I trust him to hold the Diamondbacks down once again.
MLB – 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+145)
White Sox (-180) @ Pirates: 6:05 PM CT on SportsNet PT
Tyler Anderson is the starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. He throws with his left hand, and tonight he faces the Chicago White Sox.
If I’ve lost you, quit betting baseball because you obviously haven’t heard that the White Sox simply don’t lose to lefty starters. This is a good buy-low opportunity, relatively speaking, for the White Sox coming off getting swept in Houston. Now they are putting their ace Lucas Giolito on the mound to face a bad Pirates team.
This moneyline has been rocketing up well past where I’m comfortable laying it, so I’ll look to tie it to this next parlay leg.
Astros (-170) @ Orioles: 6:05 PM CT on MASN2
Last night we cruised to a comfortable win on the Houston Astros run line as they rolled to a 10-2 win over these putrid Baltimore Orioles. Tonight all that’s needed is a straight-up win to close this parlay, and it should be an easy task for the Astros with Zack Greinke getting the start.
While Greinke hasn’t been his former dominant self, what I like about his bet-on prospects is how much run support the Astros are providing him, scoring 7 or more in all but one of his last 8 starts. That shouldn’t be tough to replicate tonight for the powerful and hot Houston lineup against Jorge Lopez, owner of an 8.36 ERA in June, and a pitcher that the Orioles have lost 6 of the past 7 starts for.
This could turn into another rout for Houston. But I’m very confident they can do the bare minimum for cashing this parlay and get the win.
NBA – Clippers/Suns Over 223 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
After Game 1 of this series saw 234 total points despite a slow start, the total has been adjusted upwards four points, a move I agree with and a number I still think will get cleared.
The regular-season series never saw more than 219 total points in three games, but Chris Paul played in all three and Kawhi Leonard played in two. The absence of those elite perimeter defenders is a big reason why both teams shot a combined 41.8% from 3-point range and the Phoenix Suns shot 55.1% for the game. That’s not a one-off event either as the Los Angeles Clippers shot 43.3% from deep and 50.1% overall in their series with the Utah Jazz, while Phoenix posted a similar 42.5% from long range and 51.6% overall mark in sweeping the Denver Nuggets.
These offenses have been hot for weeks, they have two elite scorers in Devin Booker and Paul George trading buckets, and two great defensive players in Paul and Leonard will be out again for this game. Watch for a continuation of the high-efficiency perimeter scoring in this one as these teams cruise to another over.
Bonus Lock: Suns Team Total Over 113.5 (-110):
The Phoenix Suns cleared tonight’s team total of 114.5 points in Game 1 of this series, all four games of the Denver series, and 6 of their last 7 overall games.
Over those past 7 games, the Suns have averaged 119.1 PPG, and I see another high-scoring performance from Phoenix tonight for all the reasons detailed above. This offense is red hot and the Clippers don’t have the perimeter defenders to cool it off while Paul George is focused on carrying them offensively.
I’ll roll again with this high-scoring and high-efficiency Suns offense to continue what they’ve been doing all month long.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 304-198 ATS (+91.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
