The Minnesota Vikings lost 26-34 to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. In a game that saw Minnesota’s defense give up 208 rushing yards — the third time this season the Vikings have allowed 180-plus rushing yards — the Vikings still had their opportunities to steal it late.
After the Vikings’ defense held the 49ers to a field goal following a disastrous Dalvin Cook fumble, Minnesota got the ball back with an eight-point deficit in the final seconds of the third quarter. Despite a 15-play drive that took just over six minutes off the clock, Minnesota turned the ball over on downs following a fourth-down incompletion from San Francisco’s three-yard line.
Lady luck was on Minnesota’s side when 49ers kicker Robbie Gould missed a 42-yard field goal following a 13-play drive that milked over seven minutes off the clock. The Vikings got the ball back on their own 32-yard line with 1:11 remaining and a chance to tie the game. And even though the offense got the ball to San Francisco’s 40-yard line following two-straight completions to Alexander Mattison and Justin Jefferson, the drive (and game) ultimately ended in another turnover on downs.
It’s difficult to blame the offense anytime its defensive counterparts give up 423 total yards. It’s the fourth time out of the past five games that Zimmer’s defense has surrendered 400-plus yards. But the Vikings’ offense missed a golden opportunity to at least extend the game to overtime on their final two drives.
There were three critical moments that went awry on Minnesota’s final two drives that potentially changed the outcome of the game.
Let’s start with Minnesota’s opening drive of the fourth quarter with the Vikings facing a first-and-goal from San Francisco’s six-yard line. Minnesota lined up in 12-personnel with Jefferson isolated to the boundary on cornerback Josh Norman. Jefferson had drawn a 22-yard defensive pass interference on Norman earlier in the drive.
The Vikings could have expressed gratitude to 49ers’ defensive coordinator, DeMeco Ryans, and taken advantage of the one-on-one matchup for their top-five wide receiver in the league. Instead, Minnesota predictably ran the ball directly into the teeth of San Francisco’s defense for a minimal one-yard gain.
With Norman in press-man coverage, a simple whip route to the outside after forcing inside leverage on Norman makes sense here. As does a goal-line fade/back-shoulder throw to Jefferson. While folks were applauding Kirk Cousins for allowing Jefferson to flourish on multiple 50/50 balls a week prior against Green Bay’s secondary, the Vikings should’ve been counting their lucky stars that they were presented with this matchup on first down.
On the following play — a second-and-goal from San Francisco’s five-yard line — Minnesota remained in 12-personnel with Adam Thielen isolated. Jefferson’s motion to the boundary confirmed the zone coverage. Instead of dialing up Thielen — the recipient of two first-half touchdowns AND the No. 1 wide receiver in the NFL in passer rating when targeted — the Vikings elected to pound the ball up the gut with Mattison for a two-yard gain.
Thielen has earned the reputation of being one of the league’s best receivers near the goal line. He has 24 touchdowns over his last 26 games, including a league-leading 10 touchdowns this season. Instead the Vikings opted to go with their backup running back behind their underwhelming offensive line, which averaged an embarrassing 3.7 yards per carry on the afternoon. Good football teams rely on their best players in critical moments — just like when Vikings offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak dialed up Jefferson out of the backfield on third down in the second half against the Packers in Week 11.
With Thielen’s route-running ability, he needed to be the priority here. Especially when you consider that Thielen wasn’t targeted on either third or fourth down later on in the drive.
Last but most certainly not least, let’s take a look the last play of Minnesota’s final drive. Facing a fourth-and-eight from San Francisco’s 38-yard line with 50 seconds remaining, the Vikings are lined up in 11-personnel with Thielen isolated out wide to the boundary. The 49ers were in a man-coverage with two-high safeties over the top.
Thielen immediately won on the route by getting outside leverage on the 49ers’ corner. And with Tyler Conklin occupying the seam and safety over the top, the opportunity was there for Thielen to gain separation outside past the sticks.
Instead of pushing the route vertically up the seam, Conklin’s out-route brought an extra defender to the outside, where Thielen was busy winning on his comeback route towards the sideline.
With the congested throwing window to the boundary, Cousins instead opted for Jefferson across the middle of the field on a dig route. While the read wasn’t necessarily wrong by Cousins, the throw was a tad bit high. And against a difficult defense like San Francisco’s — currently the sixth-best pass defense in the NFL — the easier you can make life for your quarterback, the more effective you’ll be.
If Conklin simply continues up the field on a seam, the outside comeback route to Thielen is theoretically wide open against this man-coverage look. It’s not a big ask for Cousins to make this throw past the sticks in order to keep the drive alive for Minnesota. With Thielen cooking in this game, Kubiak needed to do a better job of dialing up a higher-percentage play for Cousins by allowing Thielen to win when he’s isolated in man-coverage out wide.
Kubiak has shown throughout the season that he can be effective in critical moments against some of the league’s best defenses. However, the 49ers defense had his number down the stretch when it mattered most.
