Last season, the Minnesota Vikings had the league’s 29th-ranked defense, suffered multiple injuries, and had an identity crisis on offense. With all of these issues, they finished with a 7-9 record. Heading into the offseason, they have no cap room to add a free agent to fill their weaknesses. They also hold the 14th overall pick in the draft, which is unlikely to add an impact talent to serve those needs.
The Vikings aren’t bad enough to begin a complete rebuild. But they’re not good enough to make a run at the Super Bowl. They’re somewhere in the middle, which doesn’t provide much optimism.
They are stuck in football purgatory, and Kirk Cousins is the only person who can save them.
Fans have spent the past offseason trying to find ways to get Cousins out of Minnesota, but that might not be enough to get them out of this situation. With a massive contract that hogs most of their salary cap, the only way out is to have Cousins, wait for it… sign an extension. I know what you’re thinking, “They just gave him an extension and that’s why we’re in this situation.” Well this time it would mean taking a pay cut.
Although he had a career year last season, Cousins ranked 10th in Pro Football Focus’s overall grades. There’s nothing wrong with this. Teams find themselves in worse situations in terms of on-field performance.
But Cousins’ contract is another story. Entering this offseason, he holds the fourth-highest cap hit of any quarterback in the NFL ($31 million). The three quarterbacks ahead of him were Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson — two Super Bowl winners, plus Ryan, who got his team there. Dak Prescott just signed his megadeal, but he might have been overpaid considering the Dallas Cowboys’ lack of success in the playoffs. At the very least, they’ll be cap-strapped for a while.
That number is manageable for the Vikings but gets worse as Cousins heads into the final year of his deal. At $45 million, he has the highest cap hit of any quarterback in 2022. That number becomes fully guaranteed on Mar. 19.
With the NFL’s salary cap decreasing due to the pandemic, it becomes a roster-crippling albatross.
Cousins’ current salary has already had a direct effect on the Vikings offseason. The Vikings have released Kyle Rudolph, Dan Bailey and Riley Reiff. Anthony Barr could be the next cut thanks to a $15 million cap hit in his contract.
The release of Reiff is the most concerning as the Vikings have another hole in their offensive line. The free-agent market doesn’t have much to offer, so the Vikings have to be aggressive in landing an offensive tackle in the draft. This means a pick that could be used on filling one of the other holes on the roster now has to be used at left tackle unless they believe in one of their internal options.
It isn’t a bad strategy; Rick Spielman has made a career out of finding late-round gems. But their recent draft selections haven’t panned out, and this is a team in need of impact talent.
The optimist will point at finding Justin Jefferson with the 22nd-overall pick. But what are the odds the Vikings can find an elite-level player two years in a row? If they can’t find a Jefferson-type prospect on the offensive line, they may have to start Dakota Dozier for another season.
This is also assuming the Vikings have the cap room to sign their class. Over The Cap projects the Vikings to need $11.5 million in cap space to sign their rookies, and that number could go up as Spielman trades for more seventh-round selections.
The same goes for free agency, where the Vikings would have no leverage in landing an impact player. Andrew Norwell, Trai Turner, and Kevin Zeitler could be out of the Vikings’ price range at guard. A strong safety group could also be too expensive, making the task of replacing (or re-signing) Anthony Harris more difficult.
All this adds up to another 7-9 season where the Vikings show promise but can’t build upon their core group — unless Cousins restructures his contract.
When Cousins negotiated his deal, the assumption was that the salary cap would continue to go up. But the pandemic decreased the cap, making his contract more of a burden.
Tom Brady got the hint in Tampa Bay, where he took a pay cut to keep the majority of a Super Bowl roster together. While it’s obvious that we would all like to make more money at our jobs, Cousins has to decide whether he likes winning more than, well, a few extra million dollars.
At this time last year, Cousins lowered his cap number by nearly $10 million, but it also came with the security of two more years. This time, it means taking a cut for the benefit of the team, which may be a harder decision.
For a player who still drives his grandmother’s van to practice, it may be difficult for Cousins to take a cut. But if he wants to win a Super Bowl in Minnesota, it’s the only way to get the Vikings out of football purgatory.
