Vikings

Luke Braun and Nick Olson's Pre-Camp 53-Man Roster Projections

Photo Credit: Harrison Barden (USA TODAY Sports)

A lot has changed since our post-draft 53-man roster projection a couple of months back: The Minnesota Vikings appointed a new offensive line coach, traded Mike Hughes away, re-worked Danielle Hunter‘s contract, and signed Bashaud Breeland, Sheldon RichardsonDede Westbrook (among others). So it’s been a busy offseason for the Vikings. And with training camp starting yesterday and the Hall of Fame game a week from today, the NFL is about to get even busier.

Still more will change between now and the regular season, so before the preseason kicks off, Luke Braun and I wanted to take a stab at predicting where the Vikings’ 53-man roster might project at present.


Offense

Quarterback

Nick: Kirk Cousins, Jake Browning, Kellen Mond

Browning seems to be pulling away from Nate Stanley and Kellen Mond in the QB2 race. At this point, he probably gives the Vikings the best chance to win should Kirk Cousins’ iron-man streak come to an unfortunate end this year.

Mond has had an up-and-down offseason, but his potential has been on full display — including this 40-yard touchdown to Ihmir Smith-Marsette on a rope yesterday:

Mond’s footwork seems slightly cleaner and his arm talent always stands out. And the work ethic for which he gained so much praise in college has been apparent in the pros so far as well, as he was one of the first people to arrive at training camp yesterday and one of the last to leave. That said, he’s clearly still a work in progress as his accuracy and decision-making still need some improvement.

Luke: Kirk Cousins, Jake Browning, Kellen Mond

The best possible outcome for Kellen Mond, the one where he becomes a fully-fledged starter, starts with Mond developing at his own pace. If Kirk Cousins suffers an injury or one too many embarrassing interceptions, Mond shouldn’t be the player we look to until he is ready. So he’ll incubate peacefully at QB3.

That leaves QB2. The Vikings have sworn by Jake Browning as a whiteboard helper à la Sean Mannion for some time. This is the year he makes it worth a roster spot. Nate Stanley needs to have improved markedly between this year and last to challenge Browning for that spot.


Running Back

Nick: Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, Kene Nwangwu, C.J. Ham

The Vikings have one of the best running back rooms in the NFL, and Cook, Mattison, and Ham’s roles here are firmly entrenched. The only real competition is between Ameer Abdullah and Kene Nwangu for the RB3 and kick returner jobs. Despite a shaky history with ball security, I think Abdullah is the better player, especially given just how green Nwangwu is.

That said, I don’t think the Vikings will risk their fourth-round rookie being exposed to the waiver wire. The Vikings could just squeeze all five backs onto the final roster, but I’m guessing they’ll try to have their cake and eat it too by attempting to stash Nwangwu on the practice squad as an understudy should Cook or Mattison get banged up.

Luke: Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, Ameer Abdullah, Kene Nwangwu, C.J. Ham

With Dalvin Cook and C.J. Ham in their normal starting roles (sorry Jake Bargas), the running back depth is an odd group. Alexander Mattison figures to be the second option again in his third year, and the rest will likely be determined by special teams.

Kene Nwangwu is my favorite to win the kick return job with his speed and commitment to the “art of the return.” Ameer Abdullah gets a roster spot based on sound play in both coverage units as well as utility as a more stable returning option to have around just in case. The Vikings have kept six running backs in the past, so five RBs in 2021 doesn’t feel out of the question.


Wide Receiver

Nick: Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dede Westbrook, Bisi Johnson, Ihmir Smith-Marsette, K.J. Osborn

The Vikings have one of the best receiving duos in the league between Jefferson and Thielen, and I think Westbrook when healthy can be every bit as good at WR3 as Jarius Wright once was. But the depth gets pretty shaky after that. A lot will certainly change between now and the regular season, but as things currently stand, I believe Chad Beebe is on the outside looking in given that Westbrook is likely the favorite for both the punt return job and slot receiver role.

Osborn is a bit of a surprise to project onto the active roster after a fairly disappointing rookie season, but after both Mike Zimmer and Rick Spielman gave him unprompted praise in their press conferences earlier this week. He will likely have every chance to beat out Dan Chisena, Chad Beebe, Blake Proehl and Whop Philyor for a roster spot.

Luke: Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dede Westbrook, Bisi Johnson, Ihmir Smith-Marsette

After Thielen and Jefferson, Westbrook wins the third wide receiver job for me based on veteran experience, as well as the punt return job. Bisi Johnson is one of the only receivers in the group with outside/inside flexibility that isn’t an undrafted rookie, so he gets to be the primary backup. Blake Proehl may challenge him, but we’ll leave that chalk at the outset of camp.

Ihmir Smith-Marsette has impressed in OTAs along with K.J. Osborn, and Osborn just barely misses the cut there as my 54th player. Since I’m handing Nwangwu the kick return job and Westbrook the punt return job, Osborn has to make it on receiving merit alone. Rick Spielman praised his OTA performance, but he still has a little too much ground to cover.


Tight End

Nick: Irv Smith Jr., Tyler ConklinBrandon Dillon

By all accounts, Shane Zylstra has looked great in practice. The only problem for him so has Smith, Conklin, and Dillon. It’s also tough to leave off Zach Davidson since fifth-round rookies typically do make the initial final roster. But Davidson is still learning the position and therefore seems somewhat safe to expose to waivers.

Given that the Vikings seem intent to use plenty of 12 personnel this upcoming season, they may ultimately decide to roster four tight ends this year, as they have in the past. But as things currently stand, I think Zylstra and Davidson will be high-upside practice squad stashes this year.

Luke: Irv Smith Jr., Tyler Conklin, Brandon Dillon

Smith and Conklin will get the majority of the snaps, leaving most of the intrigue on the third tight end spot. Brandon Dillon is the veteran incumbent, fighting off Shane Zylstra and fifth-round rookie Zach Davidson. Davidson is far too raw for a roster spot right now, athletic as he is. He’ll be a great practice squad candidate. Brandon Dillon has more juice than he gets credit for, so he gets the gig over Zylstra.


Offensive Tackle

Nick: Brian O’NeillChristian DarrisawRashod HillOli Udoh

These four offensive tackles seem pretty set in stone to make the roster — the only real intrigue is who will play where. Darrisaw was initially slotted in as the presumptive starting left tackle, but given that he is being eased into work at camp after surgery in January earlier this offseason, Hill may give him a run for his money.

And perhaps the even bigger intrigue is whether Oli Udoh may earn a starting role at right guard after earning Spielman’s praise earlier this week and even rotating in at that position yesterday in camp. We’ll list Udoh as a tackle for now — at 6’6″, 325 lbs, and a wingspan in the 96th percentile for tackles, he certainly has the size for it — but he may be a swing player capable of playing all along the offensive line this upcoming year.

Luke: Rashod Hill, Brian O’Neill, Christian Darrisaw

It may seem strange to only roster three tackles, but both Ezra Cleveland and Oli Udoh can play tackle in a pinch. Functionally, the Vikings are five deep on the outside. For now, I’m giving Rashod Hill the starting job. Darrisaw has a few things to fix, and his slow start to camp is not going to help him tick off the to-do list.


Interior Offensive Line

Nick: Garrett Bradbury, Ezra Cleveland, Wyatt Davis, Dakota Dozier, Kyle Hinton

Bradbury and Cleveland are locked in as the starting center and left guard, respectively. But the right guard spot is now wide open, especially after Dozier and Udoh split the first-team reps at right guard to start training camp yesterday. Davis is likely the long-term favorite to win the job (beating Dozier gives him a low bar), but Udoh getting first-team reps complicates things, as Udoh’s size and athleticism always gave him the upside to potentially develop into a talented starter.

My bold prediction here is that Kyle Hinton beats out Mason Cole for the backup center job. The Vikings traded a late sixth-rounder earlier this year to acquire Cole from the Arizona Cardinals, but that pick is now a sunk cost, and I’ve written previously why I don’t think he is a starting-caliber center. Meanwhile, I am very intrigued by Hinton’s athletic upside after he was drafted from a small school last year. If Cole continues to struggle snapping the ball and doesn’t show the versatility to play at either guard spot, I think the Vikings might be inclined to go with Hinton and clear Cole’s $2.2 million salary off the books.

Luke: Garrett Bradbury, Ezra Cleveland, Wyatt Davis, Mason Cole, Oli Udoh, Dakota Dozier

I’m giving Davis the starting nod at right guard over Udoh and Dakota Dozier. Mason Cole will back up Garrett Bradbury, and I’m also hanging on to Dakota Dozier to back up Ezra Cleveland. While I don’t think Dozier is quite rosterable, I chose to keep him over K.J. Osborn as player 53. In the event that one of Cleveland and Udoh have to kick out to tackle, I found o-line depth to be more stressed than slot receiver depth.

NICK’S TOTAL OFFENSE: 25

LUKE’S TOTAL OFFENSE: 25


Defense

Defensive End

Nick: Danielle Hunter, Stephen Weatherly, D.J. Wonnum, Patrick Jones II, Janarius Robinson, Hercules Mata’afa

This is the toughest group to predict on the roster; right now the only thing that appears to be clear is Hunter will start — and will likely look like a monster. Weatherly seems like the current favorite to lead the clubhouse in snaps after that, with Wonnum narrowly behind. But any of Wonnum, Jones, and Robinson could run away with a starting role if they can be precocious enough to get the technique down despite their relative inexperience.

I think Mata’afa was surprisingly effective last year at defensive end, and I like his interior pass-rushing abilities on third downs enough to try to keep him around. However, he, Jalyn Holmes, and Kenny Willekes each face an uphill battle for a roster spot.

Luke: Danielle Hunter, Patrick Jones II, Stephen Weatherly, D.J. Wonnum, Janarius Robinson

One of the only upsets I’ll call in this prediction is Patrick Jones winning the start at DE. It’s a superficial designation since everyone will rotate (outside of Janarius Robinson, who needs a redshirt year). Jones excels at run defense, an area where Weatherly has historically struggled, and his pass rush is closer than it looks. Weatherly and Wonnum will rotate as well, though neither are particularly tough competition for the incoming rookies.


Defensive Tackle

Nick: Michael Pierce, Dalvin Tomlinson, Sheldon Richardson, Armon Watts

What a difference a year makes — the Vikings have gone from having probably the worst defensive tackle rotation in the NFL last year to having one of the very best. Pierce, Tomlinson, and Richardson are all virtual roster locks, and each figure to rotate in heavily depending on the down and distance. Watts earns the final spot over 2020 rookie James Lynch given his versatility to play either 1-tech or 3-tech and given Lynch’s disappointing rookie performance.

Luke: Michael Pierce, Dalvin Tomlinson, Sheldon Richardson, Armon Watts

Pierce, Tomlinson, and Richardson are all automatic and Jaylen Twyman is now on Reserve/NFI. That leaves the fourth and final defensive tackle slot between Armon Watts, James Lynch, and Jordon Scott. Based on what we’ve seen so far, Watts runs away with that one. However, Jordon Scott is a dark horse to watch.


Linebacker

Nick: Eric KendricksAnthony BarrNick VigilChazz SurrattTroy DyeCameron Smith

After defensive end, this is probably the most intriguing camp battle to watch. Kendricks and Barr are not just roster locks but comprise arguably the best linebacker duo in the NFL. Vigil is probably the early favorite for LB3 given his experience and the guaranteed money in his contract, but each of Dye and Surratt have the upside to win the job if they can bulk up and learn to take on blocks better in the run game. And don’t count out Smith either, as he showed a lot of promise before missing last season following open-heart surgery. That leaves Ryan Connelly as one of the tougher guys to leave off the roster.

Luke: Eric Kendricks, Anthony Barr, Nick Vigil, Chazz Surratt, Troy Dye, Cameron Smith

After Barr and Kendricks, I’m giving Nick Vigil the rotational third linebacker job. Troy Dye may be able to usurp it if he can learn to take better angles, but at the outset, I’ll default to the veteran. Chazz Surratt can comfortably take a year to bulk up, which leaves us with one linebacker spot between Cameron Smith, Blake Lynch, Ryan Connelly, and some UDFA rookies. I gave it to Smith based on his strong spring.


Cornerback

Nick: Patrick Peterson, Cameron Dantzler, Mackensie Alexander, Bashaud Breeland, Harrison Hand, Kris Boyd

What this group lacks in surefire Pro Bowl talent, it more than makes up for in depth. Peterson, Dantzler and Alexander seem fairly locked in to start along the boundaries and at nickel, respectively, but you can expect Breeland to rotate in heavily the same way Terence Newman used to. Breeland kicked off training camp strong yesterday with both an interception and a pass breakup. And Hand has had arguably the brightest offseason of anyone on the roster and should make for a strong fifth option.

Boyd earns a roster spot given his special teams ability, though he may lose it should Jeff Gladney‘s assault allegation be fully resolved with the court system and the NFL.

Luke:  Cameron Dantzler, Patrick Peterson, Mackensie Alexander, Bashaud Breeland, Harrison Hand, Kris Boyd

I’m assuming Gladney is either suspended or exempt to begin the season, so I’ll set him to the side for now. Dantzler gets the first corner job over Peterson, but that’s an arbitrary distinction as I think the Vikings will play sides anyways. Alexander and Breeland will rotate in as well. Harrison Hand has more juice than you think, leaving one cornerback spot left.

Kris Boyd will fend off a bevy of cast-offs, including Parry Nickerson and Tye Smith, especially with his special teams experience. If and when Gladney returns, Boyd may be in danger, but they could cut someone like Dozier or Cameron Smith if they feel okay about the other depth. Boyd is the incumbent option, but Tye Smith has a nose for big plays. In the secondary, it can take you very far to have the most memorable plays of the preseason.


Safety

Nick: Harrison Smith, Xavier Woods, Camryn Bynum

Smith and Woods are pretty locked in as the starters here, but Bynum has impressed in practice plenty as well, with fellow Vikings writer Sam Ekstrom writing for us here at Zone Coverage that Bynum has “already been billed as one of the smartest young players in the Vikings secondary.” It may seem odd to only roster three safeties, but the Vikings’ initial 53-man roster last year included only two, and right now Bynum seems to be taking all of the first-team reps when Smith or Woods are out. I think Josh Metellus and Myles Dorn are safe stashes for depth on the practice squad.

Luke: Harrison Smith, Xavier Woods, Camryn Bynum, Josh Metellus

Hard not to go chalk on this one. After Smith and Woods, Bynum can safely learn his new position after transitioning from cornerback. Josh Metellus didn’t play all that well last year, but he only has to fend off Luther Kirk and Myles Dorn. I think he can do that, at least.

NICK’S TOTAL OFFENSE: 25

LUKE’S TOTAL OFFENSE: 25


Special Teams

Nick: Greg Joseph (K), Britton Colquitt (P), Andrew DePaola (LS)

Last year’s Vikings recorded the third-worst special teams DVOA over the last decade, so if you’re looking for a reason to keep your excitement in check, this is your group. The Vikings will be hoping for a bounce-back year from Colquitt after he fell from the fourth-highest-graded punter in 2019 to the third-lowest-graded punter last year. That seems possible, except it’s also possible that the 36-year-old is nearing the end of the line.

Greg Joseph has had a good offseason — Zimmer said earlier this week that Joseph has so far made every kick in practice. Over his short NFL career, Joseph has hit 21 of 25 career field goal attempts (including both regular and preseason attempts), which would have ranked slightly above average among NFL kickers last year. But he has struggled mightily with extra points, having missed five of 43 career preseason and regular-season attempts, which would have ranked among the worst kickers in the league last year. The silver lining however is that even those numbers would still be an improvement over Dan Bailey last year.

DePaola took over after Austin Cutting struggled mightily last year and wound up as PFF’s second-highest graded longsnapper. It’s a small sample size but enough to give the nod to the incumbent.

Luke: Greg Joseph (K), Britton Colquitt (P), Turner Bernard (LS)

Colquitt already won his job over Zach Von Rosenberg. Greg Joseph had a strong spring, and Riley Patterson’s college resume leaves a lot to be desired. At long snapper, Turner Bernard has been honing his skills from a much younger age than a long snapper like Andrew DePaola, who only took it up in college. So I’m giving him the job as the son of a long snapping guru.

NICK’S TOTAL SPECIAL TEAMS: 3

LUKE’S TOTAL SPECIAL TEAMS: 3


Practice Squads

Nick: Nate Stanley, Ameer Abdullah, Jake Bargas, Blake Proehl, Whop Philyor, Shane Zylstra, Zach Davidson, Blake Brandel, Dru Samia, Jordan Brailford, James Lynch, Ryan Connelly, Blake Lynch, Dylan Mabin, Josh Metellus, Myles Dorn

Luke: Nate Stanley, Jake Bargas, K.J. Osborn, Whop Philyor, Blake Proehl, Zach Davidson, Blake Brandel, Zach Bailey, Kyle Hinton, Hercules Mata’afa, Jordon Scott, Blake Lynch, Christian Elliss, Dylan Mabin, Tye Smith, Myles Dorn

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