Welcome to the first installment of Zone Coverage‘s twice-monthly Vikings mailbag, where I try to answer all your burning NFL and Vikings-related questions, submitted via Twitter to @NickOlsonNFL. With the NFL Draft kicking off in just about a week, let’s try to figure out where the Vikings’ roster is headed:
My best-case, realistic draft scenario (so, setting aside any Trevor Lawrence bong-mask-induced slides to pick 14) would see the Minnesota Vikings addressing all their most pressing needs with Day 1 starters without straying too far from drafting the best player available. PFF’s 2021 Roster Preview sets out those holes pretty clearly:
So an ideal draft would involve finding another pass rusher opposite Danielle Hunter and two starting offensive linemen (one guard and one tackle/guard who can kick outside if Ezra Cleveland is better suited for guard duty). Less pressing needs include an upgrade from Chad Beebe at WR3 and additional help in the secondary given Harrison Smith and Patrick Peterson‘s age and the uncertain status of Mike Hughes and Jeff Gladney (who we recently wrote about at length).
So how can the Vikings best address those needs with their 10 draft picks? We can use Grinding the Mock’s Expected Draft Position Board along with The Athletic’s Consensus Board to get a sense of who will be available where.
At the 14th pick in the first round, the elite offensive line prospects (Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater, ranked second and ninth overall by the consensus board) will very likely already be taken. The Vikings could select either Christian Darrisaw (ranked 15th) or Alijah Vera-Tucker (ranked 16th) to address the offensive line, or go to the other side of the trenches and select Jaelan Phillips (ranked 19th) or Kwity Paye (ranked 14th).
However, I think in an ideal draft, the Vikings find a way to trade back in the first round — perhaps to a QB-needy team like Washington or the Pittsburgh Steelers if someone like Mac Jones falls, or perhaps to one of the many CB-needy teams willing to pay a premium to draft Jaycee Horn instead of Asante Samuel Jr. Using the Rich Hill trade value chart, which is a modified version of the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart updated to reflect more recent historical trade values, the Vikings could trade back with Washington from 1.14 to 1.19 and pick up 3.82, or they could trade 1.14 and 4.143 to Pittsburgh for 1.24 and 2.55.
Since it’s an ideal draft, let’s say a QB falls to 1.14 and Washington trades up to get ahead of the New England Patriots at 1.15, and since it’s for a quarterback let’s say Washington pays a slight premium and gives up 2.51 as well in exchange for 4.119. At 1.19 in this ideal draft, the Vikings go edge rusher — Spielman has never drafted a defensive end this high, but he’s also never had such a pressing need. Kwity Paye or (if his medicals check out) Jaelan Phillips would be day-one impact players with the off-the-charts athleticism for Andre Patterson to mold them into future Pro Bowlers.
With the second-rounder the Vikings picked up from that trade (or if they were to move up using two of their six picks in the third and fourth rounds), Minnesota goes offensive line. Luckily for the Vikings, this is one of the deepest offensive line classes in years, and there is no shortage of athletes who could compete for a starting role as rookies and who could last into the second and third rounds, including Samuel Cosmi (ranked 39th), Alex Leatherwood (38th), Liam Eichenberg (47th), Creed Humphrey (42nd), Landon Dickerson (33rd), Wyatt Davis (55th), Dillon Radunz (46th) and, later on, Quinn Meinerz (65th), Walker Little (94th), Brady Christensen (90th), Trey Smith (75th), Stone Forsythe (121st), Kendrick Green (101st), and Robert Hainsey (146th). Other than Wyatt Davis and Landon Dickerson (who did not test at their pro days), each of those players tested very well as athletes, with each of them scoring a Relative Athlete Score of at least eight out of 10.
In fact, eight of them posted a score even higher than Brian O’Neill, who himself posted a very impressive 9.60 out of 10 in 2018 — that’s eight super-athlete starting offensive linemen on just Day 2 of this draft. Needless to say, it’s a very, very good class to find offensive line help, especially for a team with a wide zone scheme like the Vikings.
So even if someone like Samuel Cosmi or Liam Eichenberg doesn’t end up falling, the Vikings will have plenty of options on Day 2, particularly if they’re able to trade into the second round. With the 51st pick from the Washington trade, Quinn Meinerz, with his 9.98 RAS, would be my favorite target, but Wyatt Davis could be tempting as well given his experience and higher floor.
The third round seems like a good spot to add additional help in the secondary or on either side of the trenches. I like Kelvin Joseph (ranked 74th by Grinding the Mocks) and Elijah Molden (ranked 77th), but for my personal ideal draft, I would hope Milton Williams is there at 3.78 — the undersized defensive tackle might remind Mike Zimmer a bit of Geno Atkins as he posted a 9.96 RAS, and if Vikings assistant Andre Patterson can coach him up and let him loose at the 3-technique spot rather than being hidden in more of a 4i at Louisiana Tech, his potential is sky-high. At 3.90, I like Aaron Banks (ranked 88) and Andre Cisco (ranked 89), but I really like Brady Christiansen (ranked 95) — Christiansen was PFF’s highest-graded tackle in the country, dominated on zone runs, and could start day one for the Vikings at left tackle or left guard.
With four picks in the fourth round, the Vikings will have a lot of work to do. Here we used 4.119 to trade into the second round, but at 4.125, Spencer Brown (ranked 125th by Grinding the Mocks) is a real intriguing OT project, but I would love if Nico Collins (ranked 126th) were available. At 6’4″ with a 4.45 40-yard dash, as Dane Brugler puts it, Collins “is an impressive height, weight, speed prospect with the smooth routes and dependability to push for an NFL starting role.” At 4.134, I also like Cade Johnson (ranked 140) and Ambry Thomas (ranked 138th) but for an ideal draft, I would love Elerson Smith (ranked 129th), who could be a great rotational rusher with the outrageous size and athleticism (RAS of 9.72) to have some nice upside. At 4.143, I might target safety depth — Ar’Darius Washington could be a great fit coming out of TCU’s quarters system, but ideally the Vikings could pick up Caden Sterns, who has adequate size and fantastic speed, explosion, and quickness (with a 9.59 RAS). If Sterns learns how to put those athletic gifts to work in Zimmer’s scheme, he could turn into a very solid starter.
The Vikings still have two fifth-rounders and one sixth-rounder to work with, so at 5.157, 5.168, and 6.199 I would target the best players available, ideally with the athleticism and upside to contribute on special teams initially while trying to develop into at least rotational contributors. I like the wide receiver depth of this class and would love to add Shi Smith (ranked 150th by The Athletic), Dazz Newsome (ranked 179th), or Josh Palmer (ranked 159th). Smith would be a particularly nice add as he could compete as a kick and punt returner while also having the speed to threaten defenses as a slot receiver. The Vikings still need help at cornerback, and with a 9.99 RAS, Marco Wilson (ranked 156th) is an intriguing developmental candidate. And if Drew Dalman (ranked 187th) is still available later on, he’s a perfect backup interior offensive lineman for the Vikings with off-the-charts athleticism.
So, altogether, here are the results of my (hopefully somewhat realistic) ideal draft:
- 1.19: Kwity Paye, DE
- 2.51: Quinn Meinerz, OG
- 3.78: Milton Williams, 3T
- 3.90: Brady Christiansen, OT
- 4.125: Nico Collins, WR
- 4.134: Elerson Smith, DE
- 4.143: Caden Sterns, S
- 5.157: Shi Smith, WR
- 5.168: Marco Wilson, CB
- 6.199: Drew Dalman, OC
Paye (or Phillips) would give the Vikings a very complete, very dangerous defense to complement Cousins, Cook, Jefferson, and Thielen on offense. The offensive line would hopefully be much improved, looking something like: Cleveland, Christiansen, Bradbury, Meinerz, O’Neill, with Rashod Hill and Mason Cole as solid depth. Williams and Elerson Smith could hopefully provide some pass rush juice as rotational rushers while Patterson coaches them up into bigger roles. And Collins, Shi Smith, and Sterns could contribute on special teams and have a chance to earn snaps at WR3 or FS.
Cousins’ $45 million cap hit in 2022 is fully guaranteed, meaning Minnesota’s only option for moving on from Cousins would be a trade. The Vikings could do that — there would certainly be suitors for an above-average starting quarterback like him — but without another option at quarterback it seems highly unlikely. So I expect Cousins to be extended after this season to lower his $45 million 2022 cap hit and to play out the rest of his career in Minnesota, barring a disaster season that gives the Vikings a top pick with which they could draft a successor.
Via DM: Do the Vikings need to seriously look at trading up for one of the top four QBs (not including Mac Jones)? What would the cost be to actually consider a move into the top eight, assuming they’re still available, and what is the cost of not making that move?
I think they seriously should, especially if someone like Trey Lance or Justin Fields starts to slide. If one of them happens to fall all the way to the Denver Broncos at 1.09, I would definitely see if George Paton would be willing to slide back to 1.14 in exchange for a third- and fourth-rounder, which is what the Rich Hill chart would say would be a fair price, though teams trading up for a quarterback often pay a premium.
A crazier alternative would involve offering Paton a reunion with Kirk Cousins straight up for the ninth-overall pick, giving the Broncos a quarterback they can win now with while giving the Vikings a high-upside QB on a rookie contract to build around.
That said, I think the Vikings really like Cousins and don’t want to risk a QB bust with a roster they fairly believe is ready to compete next year.
In order of likelihood, I think the Vikings’ most likely course of action in the first round would be:
- Trade down and take a pass rusher
- Draft Paye or Phillips at 1.14
- Draft an offensive lineman
- Draft another position (Patrick Surtain or possibly trade up for a quarterback)
Via DM: Should we take DeVonta Smith if he’s there for us at 14?
Will they? Almost certainly no. Should they? I think so. Adam Thielen turns 31 in August, and as good as Justin Jefferson is, the Vikings can’t get by with only two NFL-caliber receivers.
The Vikings have built their offense on an outside-zone run game foundation. The passing game relies on that run-action foundation for a heavy dose of boots and play-action, while also sprinkling in some under-center West Coast concepts for quick gains on early downs. That’s all well and good until the team is forced to play from the shotgun during two-minute drills — or play from behind. That’s the point where not having guards who can anchor or hold up in pass protection for three seconds, or not having a reliable third or fourth option at receiver, really holds the team back. And it’s something that DeVonta Smith could really help address, as he has not just WR3 potential but Pro Bowl WR1 potential.
And as we all know, the 1998 Vikings had much bigger needs than adding a third receiver to complement Cris Carter and Jake Reed. But they certainly never regretted drafting Randy Moss.
Via DMs: Do you see a move for Orlando Brown Jr. if the top-three tackles are gone? If the Vikings trade for Orlando Brown, what would the cap situation look like with both Brown and O’Neill getting big deals in the offseason?
It would be a little tough, as the Vikings already have the eighth-least cap space projected for 2022, and that is without accounting for Brian O’Neill getting a big extension and the Vikings re-signing free agents like Harrison Smith, Patrick Peterson, or Anthony Barr (among others). I wouldn’t put it past Rob Brzezinski to make it work, especially since Brian O’Neill and Dalvin Cook might be the only younger players on second contracts. But I think it’s much more likely the Vikings don’t ultimately pull the trigger on such a trade, as Brown simply lacks the athleticism to execute a lot of Minnesota’s wide zone running scheme, and he would be quite a mismatch with his undersized, athletic teammates on the Vikings’ offensive line.
Right now I think the Vikings are planning to address the holes in the offensive line on day two of the draft, with plan B involving signing one of the handful of free-agent offensive linemen who are still available like Eric Fisher, Russell Okung, Rick Wagner, or Austin Reiter.
Personally, I like Kyle Trask as a potential backup, but I agree Mills might be my favorite given his ability to create out of structure — something currently lacking on the Vikings’ offense. Luke Braun happened to write about the Vikings’ options at quarterback in the later rounds just yesterday.
Besides a quarterback, I could see DeVonta Smith falling due to size/durability concerns, or a team trading up for a linebacker or cornerback given a slight cliff after 1.14. As far as Alijah Vera-Tucker’s landing spot, the Arizona Cardinals, Las Vegas Raiders, and Miami Dolphins need help along the interior offensive line. But each also has bigger needs at other, more premium positions, and Grinding the Mocks doesn’t see any of those teams likely to prioritize offensive line help. I don’t see him getting much farther than the Chicago Bears or Pittsburgh Steelers. But I should note that, given how deep this offensive line class is, I would be surprised if the Vikings were targeting Vera-Tucker at all in the first round.
I don’t think so. This draft is so deep at offensive line that you could find players who could compete for snaps in their rookie years as late as the fourth round. I think the depth of this offensive line class played heavily into the Minnesota’s free-agency strategy, explaining why they prioritized signing a defensive tackle (a very weak position in this draft) while largely eschewing offensive line help.
In that scenario, I think the Vikings would prefer a pass rusher, but if someone like Vera-Tucker or Teven Jenkins somehow falls that far, I could see them considering it. If they trade far back enough I could also see them falling in love with Samuel Cosmi’s upside, the same way they did with Ezra Cleveland.
I largely agree with PFF’s projected Vikings’ starting lineup posted above, such that I think if this team can find solid rookie starters at guard and defensive end, I think they’ll have above-average starters at pretty much every position and will be well-equipped to win now. So I wouldn’t mortgage too much of the future trying to upgrade from Cousins when I think he is perfectly capable of a Joe Flacco or Eli Manning-like run given the team around him. I would trade some of the Vikings’ third- or fourth-rounders if someone like Justin Fields or Trey Lance started to fall, but I wouldn’t force the trade either.
My general position on winning now versus rebuilding is that teams should generally always be trying to win now. I would take a 1-in-25 shot to win a Super Bowl every year, hoping one year to get lucky, rather than tanking for several years with 1-in-100 odds at a Super Bowl in the off-chance you’re the lucky team who drafts Patrick Mahomes (and not Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Mitch Trubisky, Jared Goff, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, etc.). The way I see the math, you have a better shot going all the way with the former route than going full rebuild.
I’ll actually be traveling during the draft! But I’ll certainly be tuned in and let you know all my thoughts as all the craziness unfolds.
Don’t get me wrong, Phish Food is solid, but any dessert that heavily features marshmallows doesn’t go in my elite tier. My personal go-to is Chunky Monkey (banana ice cream with fudge and walnuts) but my vote for the overall best would probably be Half Baked — hard to beat chocolate and vanilla ice cream with both cookie dough and brownies.
Submit your questions to the next mailbag via Twitter to @NickOlsonNFL.
