You don’t need to be a professional scout to know that Harrison Smith is a great player.
He’s been the silent, steady rock of the Minnesota Vikings’ defense who’s led by example his whole career. This year will mark a decade since Smith made his NFL debut, and his production is so consistent that he often gets taken for granted.
He made an immediate impact as a rookie, deflecting 10 passes and nabbing three interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns. Smith’s production never waned. During his nine-year career, he has:
- Eight seasons with multiple interceptions
- Seven seasons with at least 75 tackles
- Eight seasons with at least 13 games started
- Seven seasons with a PFF grade above 75
That’s in line with:
Troy Polamalu — Eight seasons with multiple interceptions, four seasons with at least 75 tackles, seven seasons with at least 13 games started, and six seasons with a PFF grade above 75.
Eric Weddle — Seven seasons with multiple interceptions, 10 seasons with at least 75 tackles, 12 seasons with at least 13 games started, and nine seasons with a PFF grade above 75.
Ed Reed — Eleven seasons with multiple interceptions, two seasons with at least 75 tackles, eight seasons with at least 13 games started, and five seasons with a PFF grade above 75.
The real question is, how much longer can Smith keep producing at this level? Of course, that depends on who you ask.
If you were to go by Pro Football Reference’s approximate-value metric, which considers a player’s age and compares them to similarly aged players to contextualize how productive they are among their peers, safeties are closest to their peak when they first enter the league. However, it’s also noted that safeties age more gracefully compared to other positions, offering consistent numbers until around 35 years old. Conversely, Pro Football Focus’ player grading metric suggests that safeties peak at 22 and see steady production until 29 before taking a nosedive.
Harrison Smith will be 32 years old heading into this season and is scheduled to be a free agent after this year. However, based on what we know, it’s safe to assume he has two or three more years of solid play left before analytics predict a noticeable dip in production.
To further contextualize this, here are some PFF grades within the last 20 years from other similarly ranked players from age 32 until retirement. Coverage grades, run defense grades, average grade for coverage and run defense, and overall grades are listed along with their age at the time.
*Note: Ed Reed played for two different teams that year.
You can see that all three of these players were still able to execute at a high level at age 32, with a mean overall PFF grade of 79.13. That bodes well for Smith this year.
Polamalu retired after his age-33 season, and his production in coverage and overall grade dipped significantly in his final year. However, his run defense improved by just over 10 points from the year before. Eric Weddle’s production improved drastically in all categories during his age-33 season, bumping him up from 73.3 overall at age 32 to an overall score of 82.3 a year later. For the most part, Ed Reed’s production stayed the same, with minimal variation between age 32 and age 33.
After a career year at age 33, Weddle came back down to earth at 34 as his run defense fell by over 20 points while his coverage grade decreased by eight points. Weddle hung up the cleats the following year. Reed’s coverage grade stayed steady, but his run defense fell by five points. Despite his 82.4 coverage grade, his overall score fell to 73 overall.
By age 35, Reed’s coverage grade was cut nearly in half, netting him an abysmal 44.9 score. His run defense did improve by five points, but he finished with an uninspiring overall grade of 48.2. Reed played for two different teams in 2013, so that could have factored into his lackluster production, but whatever it was, he called it a career after that.
If you were to average all the players’ coverage and run defense grades, they’d look like this:
Average Coverage Grade (without Ed Reed’s terrible two-team year): 79.35
Average Coverage Grade (with Ed Reed’s terrible two-team year): 75.52
Average Run Defense Grade: 69.7
So what does this all mean for Harrison Smith? It means that, beyond this season, he has three years left in the tank, at best. It is rare to see safeties play at a high level past 35. At worst, he could start to regress as early as next year. Granted, Harry the Hitman has a very particular set of skills, so I can see him playing until 34. He will probably spend his final seasons as a free safety because coverage skills tend to last longer, and playing away from the ball isn’t as physical as it would be playing near the line of scrimmage.
All things considered, it may be in the Vikings’ best interest to keep Smith in Minnesota by offering him a three-year extension with a team option for his third year. That way, they keep him under contract for a bit longer, which could free up space if the team needs to move money around for other signings or extensions.
Judging by his statement, the feeling is mutual.
