Coming off of a winter where Justin Jefferson, Anthony Edwards, and Kirill Kaprizov took the Twin Cities by storm, many believed Alex Kirilloff would be the next great rookie to appear on the Minnesota sports scene.
Kirilloff had plenty of hype when he made his major league debut, coming off a performance in the minor leagues that made him a consensus top-100 prospect. But he didn’t look like a superstar right away, and fans were left wondering if the Twins had pulled the trigger too soon on a player who only had four postseason at-bats under his belt.
While his rookie year was a disappointment, it deserved a better fate.
Kirilloff’s rookie season got off to a rocky start when he struggled in spring training. The Twins had non-tendered Eddie Rosario, providing a clear path to the starting left fielder job on Opening Day. But a 4-for-31 performance convinced Minnesota’s front office to give him more time in minor league camp, and Kirilloff began the season in the minors.
During a typical season, Kirilloff would have gotten at-bats to work on what was ailing him. But with the minor league season shifted back to May, Kirilloff worked in a controlled setting, which put him further back.
When Kirilloff got the call to the majors, it was due to a rash of injuries and positive COVID-19 tests. Forced into action, Kirilloff struggled initially, going 3-for-26 in his first eight games. But while the stats didn’t suggest it, he held his own.
According to The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman, many of his early struggles were based on bad luck. His expected batting average over his first six games was .296, and that trend carried through the rest of the season. Baseball Savant calculated that Kirilloff’s rookie season posted an expected wOBA of .365, but he only produced a .307 mark. The same goes for Kirilloff’s slugging percentage, which was expected to be .535 but only finished at .423.
The main reason for this was Kirilloff’s approach at the plate. While he only hit .251 on the season, he also posted an average exit velocity of 91 mph. That number would have ranked 30th among all major league hitters but was nothing compared to his ability to put the bat on the ball.
Kirilloff had a barrel rate of 12.8 percent. Had he qualified, he would have tied for the major league lead with Fernando Tatis Jr. That ability to barrel up shows the ability to produce power, which he did throughout his minor league career.
In 2018, Kirilloff’s hitting ability was on full display. He hit .348/.392/.578 with 20 homers between Low-A and High-A. Even as he struggled through several injuries in 2019, he hit nine homers while adjusting to Double-A.
The ability to navigate the ups and downs came in handy when Kirilloff finally got his first major league hit. After picking up that elusive knock in his sixth career game, Kirilloff hit .321/.333/.857 in his next seven games, including a two-homer game against the Kansas City Royals on Apr. 30.
For the most part, it looked like Kirilloff was ready to take off until he suffered a wrist injury. The injury was similar to the one Nelson Cruz sustained in 2019, where he could either have surgery or wait for the tendon to rupture.
When Cruz suffered his injury, he put up better numbers before the ligament ruptured in August. With little experience to draw on, Kirilloff tried to play through the injury and hit .260 in his final 47 games. But his power was sapped, slugging just .387 with four homers.
Kirilloff finally threw in the towel in August, which ended a season that fell short of massive expectations. With Twins fans watching Rosario turn in one of the most incredible postseason performances of all time, it may be fair to question what Kirilloff’s future with the Twins could be.
But Kirilloff’s rookie season wasn’t indicative of what kind of player he could be. He should still have a bright future moving forward.
