Twins

Contracts the Twins Should Get Out in Front Of

Feb 26, 2020; Fort Myers, Florida, USA; Minnesota Twins right fielder Alex Kirilloff (76) runs on an RBI single during the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at CenturyLink Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-USA TODAY Sports

When the Minnesota Twins extended Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler, there was plenty of confusion. Both players were coming off down seasons, and it seemed like the $58 million investment could be better spent elsewhere — especially given the Twins’ reputation for being financially conservative.

Instead, both players broke out in 2019 and introduced a key philosophy of the Twins’ front office.

By signing Kepler and Polanco, they jumped ahead of the curve of their contract demands. This helped the franchise sign Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson in free agency while keeping together a nucleus that has won back-to-back division titles.

With the regular season a month away, the Twins have started approaching players about signing extensions. While it may be in the best interest of a player to wait and hit the open market, there are three guys the Twins should consider locking up this spring.

Jose Berrios

An extension for Berrios is at the top of the Twins’ wish list. The right-hander has been an upper-rotation starter for Minnesota, logging double-digit wins from 2017-19. Berrios’ price has continued to go up following a pair of All-Star appearances, which has led to his camp turning down multiple extension offers.

But that decision appeared to backfire last year when he went 5-4 with a 4.00 ERA. Batters were squaring up Berrios more than usual — but there were also some promising traits.

According to FanGraphs, Berrios’ fastball clocked in at 94.3 mph, but it was used a career-low 51.5 %. While his pitches in the zone decreased to 39.6%, he also was able to miss bats, logging a 34.4% chase rate and a career-high 11.6 swinging-strike percentage.

Even if he doesn’t make a return to the All-Star game, there’s a scenario where Berrios rebounds in 2021. If that happens, his price will go up next offseason and reach a peak when he hits free agency in 2022. That could put Berrios above the $10-15 million range that Charlie Morton, Drew Smyly, and Corey Kluber landed in this offseason.

It may not feel like Berrios deserves an extension, but it might be the correct move for the Twins. Even if he continues to play at his current level, the Twins could put him on the trade market with a team-friendly deal and recoup some of their losses.

Byron Buxton

The same thoughts apply to Buxton. While many Twins fans have qualms about Buxton’s injury issues, he lands on a similar trajectory to Berrios.

Over the past two seasons he has hit .259/.299/.534 with 23 HR and 76 RBI. With the increase in power, Buxton adds to an arsenal that already included elite speed and defense. While he hasn’t stayed healthy, the year that Buxton stays on the field will be the one that gets him paid.

Last offseason, 31-year-old George Springer got a six-year, $150 million contract from the Toronto Blue Jays ($25 million AAV). The next highest-paid outfielder was 30-year-old Marcell Ozuna, who got four years and $65 million ($16.25 million AAV) from the Atlanta Braves.

Buxton could hit free agency in 2022 at age 28. With two healthy seasons under his belt and that resumé, he could come close to getting Springer money. If he continues to hit like he did the past two seasons, he could get more.

Alex Kirilloff

Buxton and Berrios are players with established major league track records, but if the Twins really want to get ahead of the curve, they have to try to get Kirilloff signed to an extension.

Kirilloff is one of the Twins’ two best prospects, putting up a .317/.365/.498 line with 36 HR and 177 RBI over three years in their system. Those numbers could have been better had the pandemic not wiped out minor league baseball in 2020. There’s a good chance that Kirilloff could make an immediate impact as the Twins’ starting left fielder.

The idea of signing Kirilloff is to keep his price down and avoid a Mike Trout situation. While Trout was winning MVP awards shortly after his debut, the Los Angeles Angels were paying him just under $2 million over his first three seasons. Eventually, the leverage changed hands, and Trout signed a 12-year, $426.5 million contract prior to the 2019 season.

It’s unlikely that Kirilloff will reach Trout’s level of superstardom, but it’s still a good idea to be proactive.

The Tampa Bay Rays were one of the first teams to lock up talent like this, offering a six-year, $17.5 million contract to Evan Longoria prior to his 2008 debut. Four years later, the two sides went back to the negotiating table for a six-year, $100 million extension. The team-friendly deal allowed the Rays to trade Longoria to the San Francisco Giants in 2017.

The Chicago White Sox also locked in a top prospect early last summer. Luis Robert was slated to be their starting center fielder when he inked a six-year, $50 million contract prior to his debut. Last year, Robert finished second in the American League Rookie of the Year voting.

This sounds like a great idea, but Kirilloff’s agent may have a different idea. While Scott Boras says these deals are to “snuff out” the market, it’s the one way the Twins can field a competitive roster consistently. It’s what makes this time of the year contract season in Minnesota.

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Feb 26, 2020; Fort Myers, Florida, USA; Minnesota Twins right fielder Alex Kirilloff (76) runs on an RBI single during the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at CenturyLink Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-USA TODAY Sports

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