After a long night of fierce competition on the field, a normal 40-year-old will often retreat to their home, hobbled by achy joints and maybe a cramp or two. If the Minnesota Twins have learned anything since the start of the 2019 season, it’s that designated hitter Nelson Cruz is no ordinary 40-year-old.
Instead of lathering himself in pain-relief lotion and settling on the couch with a post-game cocktail, Cruz heads back to the batting cage and continues honing his craft. He takes cut after cut on the batting tee until there aren’t any balls left in the bucket.
He’ll challenge himself by doing a round one-handed.
Then maybe he’ll focus on hitting the ball to the opposite field.
He’ll even do a round down on one knee.
Whether he had six at-bats that night or just one pinch-hit opportunity off the bench, the work remains the same. Everyone knows that his swing is still as steady and strong as ever. The question is, how long until the revered slugger runs out of balls in his bucket?
Granted, it seems ridiculous to talk about any sort of end to Cruz’s production at the plate. Since joining the Twins two years ago, he has demolished opposing pitchers with an absurd slash line of .311/.394/.635. That production has led to a 166 wRC+, meaning his offense has produced 66% more than a league-average player. The only qualified hitter that has been better than him in that regard is Mike Trout, who is widely regarded as the best player in the game today.
So how has Cruz been able to remain so productive with Father Time nipping at his heels?
While the Twins’ DH has excelled on multiple levels over the last two seasons, he has handled a few situations particularly well since joining the club.
First, he has demolished elevated pitches since becoming a Twin in 2019. According to Inside Edge Scouting, Cruz leads all qualified players in slugging percentage on pitches in the upper third of the strike zone and above (Cruz has a .730 SLG in those instances, nobody else is above .700). He’s been even more lethal when pitchers elevated a fastball in that timeframe, where he has slugged .786 (best in MLB according to Inside Edge) and has crushed 15 home runs (eighth-most in MLB).
Second, he has been clutch with runners in scoring position, where he boasts a ridiculous slash line of .361/.473/.599 since the start of 2019, considerably higher than the league average slash of .245/.322/.418. Not only has he seen positive results when RBIs have been ripe for the picking, but he ranks fourth in the majors with 111 quality at-bats with runners at second and/or third base. Quality at-bats refer to occasions that end in a hit, walk, successful sacrifice, outs that were well-hit, and at-bats that last seven or more pitches.
Finally, he has humiliated left-handed pitchers. While in a Twins uniform, Cruz has 22 home runs (tied for MLB lead), a .466 on-base percentage (best in MLB), and a .280 well-hit average (eighth in MLB) against southpaws. That elite production hasn’t gone unnoticed by opposing teams, as they’ve tried to limit his exposure to their lefties (194 plate appearances vs. LHP, 555 plate appearances vs. RHP since 2019). Even with somewhat limited subjection, Cruz boasts the highest at-bat to home run ratio against left-handed pitchers (7.3 AB/HR).
So it’s clear that he has the most success with elevated fastballs, with runners in scoring position, and against left-handed pitchers. Keeping this information in mind, is there a way for the Twins to maximize Cruz’s contributions in an effort to increase run production?
By testing out a few tweaks to their batting order, the Twins may be able to get more value when it comes to their DH. With Byron Buxton’s hot start this year, perhaps hitting him in front of Cruz could add another dimension to the team’s run creation. Say Buxton gets on base directly before Cruz comes to the plate; that creates an instant threat for a stolen base and puts the pitcher between a rock and a hard place. With an elite runner on first base, pitchers will tend to throw more fastballs, or at the very least they will try to avoid breaking pitches in the dirt. Long story short, having Buxton on first may create more opportunities for Cruz to sit on the pitches where he excels the most, that being elevated pitches and more fastballs. If the pitcher opts to avoid this scenario by burying a breaking pitch in the dirt, they risk Buxton taking second base due to a passed ball/wild pitch or just simply making it more difficult for the catcher to throw out the speedy center fielder.
Another layer to this could be bumping Buxton and Cruz to the top two spots in the batting order when facing a left-handed starter. This could theoretically do two things that would benefit the Twins. It allows them to pounce on opposing teams from the get-go with their two hottest hitters and increases their chances of seeing the opposing starter for a third time later in the game. With teams putting an emphasis on taking their starting pitcher out of the game before it gets to that point, it could also force opposing managers to go to their bullpen earlier and more often in a series.
The Twins have been quite successful in the run creation department since Cruz debuted with the team (fourth-most runs scored, fourth-highest wRC+). Their strategy of mixing and matching with their starting lineup has been effective and dynamic, so it’s reasonable to expect that strategy to remain part of their playbook for the time being. However, proactive teams make adjustments before their strategy becomes stale. The Twins may want to try something new while Cruz still has balls in his bucket.
