The Minnesota Twins have enough offense to be a contender, but the pitching staff continues to be a major issue. Entering Sunday, the Twins ranked 12th in runs scored but 27th with a 4.95 ERA on the mound. Minnesota’s starters have especially struggled, owning a 5.09 ERA on the season.
With José Berríos traded in July, the Twins will have to rely on their own arms to complete a turnaround in 2022. While there are several players who could reach the majors next season, Joe Ryan is the one to watch in the final weeks.
Ryan was acquired along with Drew Strotman as part of the Nelson Cruz trade. The right-hander ranked 10th on the Tampa Bay Rays’ list of prospects but was in the middle of the top-ranked organization in baseball. But in the Twins’ organization, he becomes one of the team’s most likely prospects to make an immediate impact.
That skillset was on display Friday night when Ryan made his debut for Triple-A St. Paul. He used an easy delivery to disguise his fastball, which ranges from 92-96 mph according to MLB Pipeline, and caught hitters off guard, striking out the first six batters he faced.
While Ryan only lasted four innings on Friday night, he looked like the starter the Twins need next season. He was able to miss bats, finishing the night with nine strikeouts and a line-drive solo homer in the fourth and. Most importantly, he was able to limit his walks.
The key for Ryan? He’s able to pound the zone without getting pounded. Twins starters rank 26th in MLB with 187 walks allowed but also rank 20th with a 1.33 WHIP. Ryan has been able to control both of those aspects, holding hitters to a .568 OPS while issuing 1.6 walks per nine innings.
There is a case for some regression, however: Ryan has allowed a .227 average on balls in play. But even with some dropoff, Ryan should make a case to make starts for the Twins in September.
The rotation has been in shambles since Minnesota made the Berríos trade. While they still have Kenta Maeda at the top of the rotation, he fits better as a No. 2 or No. 3 pitcher on a playoff team. Griffin Jax and Bailey Ober have also been a nice story but both seem like better fits on the back end of the rotation or as long relievers.
John Gant has been used as a spot starter/opener, but he’s better suited for a bullpen role. And Charlie Barnes seems more like depth than anything else at this point.
This means Ryan will have to compete with some of the other prospects in the Twins’ system. Jhoan Duran came into the season as one of the Twins’ top pitching prospects but he has been dealing with elbow issues. Much like former Minnesota prospect Brusdar Graterol, Duran’s triple-digit fastball may be a better fit for the bullpen, which also needs reinforcements.
Jordan Balazovic will also be in the mix, but he’s currently with Double-A Wichita. The third-ranked Twins prospect according to MLB Pipeline, Balazovic has turned in a 4-2 record and 3.42 ERA for the Wind Surge but may need time at Triple-A before getting the call. The same goes for Matt Canterino, who has a 0.78 ERA at Advanced-A Cedar Rapids but may be a year away from contributing.
That puts Ryan in a group of seasoned arms who could find their way into the rotation. Strotman belongs in this group, but his 4.7 walks per nine innings have been a major issue this season. Although he’s in the same place as Ryan, Strotman could need more work at Triple-A before getting the call-up.
The Twins could also decide to give Josh Winder a look down the stretch. Winder represented the Twins in the MLB Futures Game and compiled a 4-0 record and 2.63 ERA in 14 starts between Wichita and St. Paul.
Although Winder’s stock has risen more than any other pitcher’s in Minnesota’s system, he’s cooled off since joining the Saints, which could convince the Twins to give him more time. That leaves Ryan as the one pitcher that could come up and make an impact in September. If he comes up to Minnesota and does well, the Twins could pencil him into the rotation for next year without having to acquire a veteran stopgap.
It’s just one start, but Ryan’s debut with the Twins signals he could be an important piece of their future. If he shows out in September, Ryan can indicate to team management that the future is now.
