The Minnesota Twins received some bad news last week: Kenta Maeda is scheduled to undergo surgery on Wednesday. While it hasn’t been confirmed, the expectation is that he will need Tommy John surgery, which would keep him out through the 2022 season.
The Twins’ rotation has been paper-thin this season as they try to cross the finish line with Griffin Jax, Bailey Ober, and guys who weren’t even on the 40-man roster in spring training. But with Maeda unlikely to be part of their plans next year, his injury could trigger a full-blown rebuild.
Taking a look at the Twins’ roster, they have an offense that can compete. The Twins entered Sunday’s finale with the Milwaukee Brewers ranking fourth in home runs (183) and 12th in runs per game (4.62). They also have a core of players in their prime like Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler who can anchor a competent lineup.
With Jose Miranda on the way, the Twins’ offense could be better than they have been this season, but their ability to compete could come down to their pitching.
Entering the final month of the season, no pitcher from the Twins’ Opening Day roster is currently in the rotation. While Jax and Ober have shown some upside, they are likely back-end starters. John Gant is better suited as a bullpen arm, and Charlie Barnes might wind up as the answer to a random trivia question down the road.
That leaves the Twins with the unenviable task of filling out their entire starting rotation in one offseason. It’s a path that has to start within the organization.
Randy Dobnak should be in consideration for a spot, but he has a 7.95 ERA over his last 60 innings pitched. Joe Ryan should also earn a call up, but if he struggles in September,the Twins would probably like to give him more experience at Triple-A. The same goes for Jhoan Duran, Josh Winder, and Drew Strotman, who have all struggled in St. Paul.
The Twins organization has more arms than they did a year ago, but their best option could be to monitor the free-agent market.
Over the past couple of seasons, that’s led to a nightmarish scenario. In 2020, the Twins signed Homer Bailey and Rich Hill to placehold until their prospects were ready. Bailey started the year on the injured list and was released after one start, while Hill looked like he had internal alarms sounding every time he took the mound.
The Twins went back to the bargain bin this past offseason when they signed J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker. Neither made it halfway through the season: Happ was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals and Shoemaker was designated for assignment.
Could they have spent smarter? Possibly, because Robbie Ray and Carlos Rodón could have given them competitive pitching throughout the season. But free agents may not view Minnesota as a contender like they would the New York Yankees or even the Chicago White Sox, giving them a disadvantage on the open market.
That leaves the trade market as their last option. While we could hope that some team would be willing to make a reverse LaMonte Wade Jr. deal and send a productive pitcher in exchange for an excess position, most of Minnesota’s depth players are probably overvalued by their own fan base.
The Twins could dangle Taylor Rogers or Ryan Jeffers to try and get a starter, but they might not get enough in return. With the need for major league starters, the Twins may have to get aggressive and trade some of the players who could help them be competitive in 2021.
While Maeda isn’t the pitcher that finished second in Cy Young Award voting last year, he’s a pretty good option. But his injury could lead the Twins to start over and hope that some of their arms develop faster than expected.
