While crucial missed opportunities have defined the first third of the Minnesota Twins’ season, the jury is still out when it comes to the off-season that preceded it. After all, the Twins were linked to a wide assortment of free-agent sluggers to fill their hole at shortstop. One of their missed opportunities has bloomed elsewhere, and one has completely wilted. Regardless, Minnesota had to take a shot with their eventual signing, even if their return has been less than spectacular so far.
Who They Landed
Andrelton Simmons 83 wRC+ (.1 WAR) 1 year/$10.5 million
Known as arguably the best defensive shortstop of the last 25 years, Simmons has had a solid first six weeks of the season, with a few hiccups mixed in. Notably, the slick-fielding former Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Angels shortstop tested positive for COVID-19 after making it known that he had no intention of getting the vaccine. He was out of action for the next two weeks, and the Twins won just one game in his absence. Three other players were also held out due to positive COVID-19 tests even after receiving the vaccine just days before, and the team was forced to postpone three games due to the outbreak. While it is far from a certainty that the spread was due to Simmons himself, the optics certainly weren’t great.
From a performance standpoint, he’s hardly the main reason the Twins find themselves in their current hole, but his stat line is still somewhat underwhelming.
He wasn’t signed to be a frontline offensive powerhouse, but his 83 wRC+ suggests that he’s been about 17% below average, even in a year when offense is down league-wide. His walk rate is the highest of his career thus far, but so is his strikeout rate. Opposing pitchers have found a sizable hole in his swing, evident in the fact that he’s currently slugging .000 on breaking balls down and away this season (worst in MLB, according to Inside Edge).
The Twins’ front office surely knew that breaking balls had been an issue for Simmons in recent years, especially against left-handed pitching. Just last season, he didn’t have a single well-hit ball on a breaking pitch from a southpaw.
Regardless, the club signed Simba to stabilize their defense up the middle and bat near the bottom of the lineup. It’s hard to put much blame for the Twins’ struggles on the shoulders of a slightly below-average nine-hole hitter.
A few miscues and errors aside, Simmons has been solid defensively, just as expected. His effort has been worth two defensive runs saved in 36 games played this season, and if he continues to provide that sort of value, he should finish with somewhere around 7-9 DRS. That’s far from his prime stretch from 2012-18, where he would average about 25 DRS per season, but he’s still been comfortably above average. At the very least, Simmons has been a clear upgrade over Jorge Polanco from a defensive standpoint at short.
Dodged a Bullet
Didi Gregorius 69 wRC+ (-.1 WAR) 2 years/$28 million
A long-time Twin Killer™ with the dreaded New York Yankees, Gregorius ended up receiving the biggest financial commitment out of the three shortstops that the Twins seriously considered over the off-season, at least in terms of total guaranteed money. That commitment from the Philadelphia Phillies, however, looks questionable in hindsight. Didi is having one of the worst seasons of his career so far, slashing an ugly .229/.266/.364. He has a very not-nice 69 wRC+ and the highest strikeout percentage since his rookie season.
He enjoyed a very successful first season with the Phillies last year, but his time there has seemingly soured like the Cheez Whiz on a cheesesteak that’s been sitting in the hot Philadelphia sunshine.
As clutch as Gregorius was against the Twins in the postseason in 2017 and 2019, he’s put just 26% of his swings in play with runners on base this season (tied for seventh lowest in MLB). Based on the Twins’ struggles in that regard so far this year, Didi may have actually fit right in. For now, though, it looks like the Twins made a wise choice not to invest in a multi-year commitment to their former rival.
The One That Got Away
Marcus Semien 141 wRC+ (2.1 WAR) 1 year/$18 million
Many assumed that Semien’s career year occurred in 2019 when he put up one of the most valuable seasons by a shortstop in the history of the game. That year, he played in all 162 games for the Oakland A’s and accrued 7.6 WAR, helping to lead them to a division crown in the process. Now on a one-year prove-it contract with the Toronto Blue Jays, he may be even better.
In just 46 games played with his new club, Semien has already accumulated 2.1 WAR and is slashing an eye-popping 286/.351/.527 with 12 home runs on the young season.
Cover your eyes, Twins fans, because the next tidbit is going to sting a little bit.
The most enticing aspect of Semien’s season is that he has driven in 19 runs with two outs this season, good for the third-most in MLB. He’s been elite in an area where the Twins have sorely lacked this year. Just think of how many late and close situations have slipped through the team’s fingers in late innings so far this season. Of course, there is no way to assume that Semien could have impacted each and every one of those losses, but all it takes is one breakthrough moment to stop the bleeding when a team is in a slump.
The financial commitment did look very steep at the time of the signing. While he would have been a welcomed addition to the Twins’ clubhouse, it’s easy to see why the front office would feel uncomfortable doling out that kind of cash when Nelson Cruz still hadn’t re-signed with the club yet.
Without a doubt, the Twins were always going to have a new shortstop in 2021 after the way Polanco has underwhelmed defensively over the past few years. To Polanco’s credit, ankle surgery is very hard to bounce back from, let alone two surgeries in consecutive seasons. Even though that same ailment has resurfaced for him this season, his play at second base after moving positions has been very solid. That move needed to happen, and the club needed to find a defensive specialist to stabilize the infield at shortstop. With uber-prospect Royce Lewis hopefully knocking on the door to take the reins, the Twins wanted a one-year stopgap, eliminating Gregorius from the equation.
And as nice as it would have been to have Semien based on the year he’s having, that much money committed to one player would have put the Twins in a pinch if they wanted to fix the other holes on their roster. Hindsight says that they could be much better off with Semien rather than Simmons, but as the great Kurt Vonnegut said, “Of all the words of mice and men, the saddest are, ‘It might have been.’”
