The Minnesota Twins had the perfect plan for their infield. By moving Jorge Polanco to second base and signing Andrelton Simmons, they improved defensively to hold the fort in 2021 and clear the way for Royce Lewis in 2022. Those plans came crashing down with the news that Lewis will miss nine months to a year with a torn ACL. Before the injury, he was due to make his debut by September, so the news of his injury throws a wrench into their long-term plans.
Lewis will turn 22 in June, but the Twins are built to win right now. With several veteran players on the roster, their championship window may not be open when Lewis is a full-time player in 2023, meaning they should be aggressive in finding ways to maximize their current roster by acquiring Trevor Story.
Story has been stuck in Denver, where he’s become one of the top offensive shortstops in baseball. With a career .877 OPS, he fits right in with the Twins’ philosophy to go all-in on offense and score enough to help out a strong but not elite pitching staff. He also brings value defensively. According to Statcast, the 28-year-old recorded 14 outs above average (fourth in MLB among shortstops) and 11 runs prevented (third in MLB) in his last full season in 2019.
Those numbers are on par with Simmons, who recorded 16 outs above average and 12 runs prevented. Both totals were second among MLB shortstops, but not enough to consider Story to be a downgrade. As an all-around player, Story gives the Twins the kind of instant boost that fans have been clamoring for. He also brings an insurance plan in case Lewis isn’t the player we think he will become.
As with any No. 1 overall pick, Lewis was expected to be great, but his stock dropped each year in the Twins’ system. After beginning his career with a .279/.381/.407 line in 2017, Lewis improved to a .292/.352/.451 line in 2018 and was ranked ninth on Baseball America’s Top 100 list before the 2019 season.
Lewis’ rise came to a halt when he suffered a strained oblique in the opening week of spring training. He looked rusty upon his return to the field, hitting .238/.289/.376 for High-A Fort Myers. Lewis was still promoted to Double-A and hit .231/.291/.358 in 33 games with Pensacola. An MVP performance in the Arizona Fall League helped spawn optimism, but there were still questions about his swing.
The 2020 season was set to be a huge step in Lewis’ development, but the pandemic took away the chance to play a full minor league season. As a result, Lewis was locked away behind the gates of CHS Field, where reports were limited.
If you’re keeping score at home, Lewis has hit .236/.290/.371 since 2018 with a questionable swing and now has a major knee injury. While the Twins wouldn’t be selling high by trading Lewis now, they may not have to to acquire Story.
The Colorado Rockies are a mess and just paid $50 million to the St. Louis Cardinals to trade away Nolan Arenado for a slew of mediocre prospects. This trade should be a key reason Story wants to get out of Denver. If he doesn’t sign a long-term extension, he will hit the trade market and allow the Twins to pounce.
By throwing Lewis in a deal, the Twins could also dig into their outfield depth to make a trade happen. A logjam in the outfield could make Trevor Larnach and Brent Rooker expendable, and they probably would have a pitching prospect in there — but they’d have a deal. The idea of Minnesota trading first-round picks from 2017 (Lewis) and 2018 (Larnach) would make fans grit their teeth, but it makes sense for where they are in the competitive cycle.
The Twins’ goal is not to hang another division championship flag at Target Field but win a championship. Since 2019, the Twins have held their trump card while waiting for the perfect move to go all-in. If the Twins are serious about contending for a championship, they’ve gotta make a move for Story.
