Malik Beasley made it public this week that his goal is to be the NBA Most Improved Player this year, so I decided to do a conclusive deep dive on whether or not he has a shot. I’m going to look at three ways to analyze this award. Hopefully Malik is aware that this is not the other bad type of “player”; otherwise, he’d be a lock.
Here’s a link to the Google Sheets I created if you’re curious or a visual learner.
Past Winners
The first comparisons I looked at were past winners of the award. I found a couple of archetypes. The first type of player is a player who becomes much more efficient (mainly offensively) on a similar amount of playing time. Over the past ten years, Brandon Ingram, Victor Oladipo, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler, and Goran Dragic all fit this mold. The next largest group from the last ten years was the player who massively increased their role without losing or gaining much efficiency. This includes CJ McCollum, Paul George, and Ryan Anderson. The final two, Minnesota’s own Kevin Love in 2011 and Pascal Siakam two years ago, improved somewhat on their efficiency while increasing their role as well. This is Malik’s group. He’s seen a substantial increase in minutes, and he’s looked far better than last year in those minutes.
Out of the past winners here, I think two more things stand out to me. First, Five of the ten most recent winners of Most Improved Player made the All-Star Team. This is out of the question for Malik. Of the guards in the loaded West, Steph Curry, Jamal Murray, Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, and Luka Doncic have first dibs right now, and Beasley is probably two tiers below them at this point. This is not to say he’s not having a fantastic year (on the court)!
The other thing that stands out to me is that the last player to win Most Improved Player with a Win Share per 48 (WS/48) below .08 was in 2007 with Monta Ellis (pre-advanced stats hype). This was the famed “We Believe Warriors” season. It’s difficult to imagine a grassroots Warriors team being the David rather than the Goliath they have become, but that’s what happens to the startups in the Bay Area who stumble upon generational talent — they move to SF and gentrify, leaving any semblance of humanity behind them in Oakland. $GME TO THE MOON BABYYYYYYYYY
Competition this year
The next comparisons (in the second tab of the Google sheets) I looked at were to the players Beasley actually has to beat out this year. Surprisingly, the percentage increases of his statistics are competitive with the market. He has solid fundamentals as the hedge fund hogs say. From the 10 players with the greatest odds (as per Sports Betting Dime on January 19th), he was fifth in win-shares per 48 minutes growth and fifth in points increase. Those categories are the most common increases amongst players who won the award in the past. The raw figures alone, on the other hand, don’t seem as impressive, and in the end, the voters will vote based on simple stats, and more likely, the narrative.
Narrative
Narrative shapes the NBA awards as much as the stats, and sometimes even more. After watching Giannis Antetokounmpo win back-to-back MVPs based on being dominant in every advanced stat, only to fizzle out in the playoffs, the NBA could use a little narrative. To account for narrative in my table, I added the team winning percentage in the last column. I found that Minnesota Timberwolves winning percentage this year (.235) would be the third-worst of any winning player’s team in the 35-year history of the Most Improved Player Award. The worst record, coincidentally, was Kevin Love’s 2011 Wolves, who were a putrid 17-65. Of any player vying for the award this year, Malik Beasley’s team is the worst, and that is going to have to change if he wants to join the national conversation.
This year, the narrative part of the award goes to Jaylen Brown, who, in addition to stepping up as a leader and organizer in his hometown Atlanta metro community this summer, has suddenly become the best player on the Boston Celtics. He has never made an All-Star Game, and so far this year, he’s playing at a 2nd Team All-NBA level. I’m too lazy to find out if this is unprecedented, especially since it’s hypothetical still, but it’s absolutely incredible. He jumped from 20 points a game to 27 while staying possibly the most important defensive entity for the Celtics (yes Marcus Smart is the best individual defender)! In my opinion, Most Improved Player is Brown’s award to lose, with Collin Sexton lurking somewhere in the distant background. We’re less than a third through the season though, so things can change!
So How does Malik Beasley win MIP?
If Malik Beasley is going to win Most Improved Player, he’s going to do 5 things:
- Break the 20 point seal.
- Win 30 games with the Wolves. His competition is winning games.
- Show more of his two-way potential. I don’t want to see Andrew Wiggins lighting him up anymore.
- Distribute. His 2.2 assists is very low for a starting guard, even if he is off-ball. Previous winners at the shooting guard position have been able to pass effectively.
- FINISH AT THE RIM. He’s shooting 55% at the rim, and he has missed a lot of gimmes.
The biggest problem I see with Beasley’s campaign strategy is that it’s a catch-22 — or catch-32, that is. The best chance at winning 30 games is that Karl-Anthony Towns returns, but with him and D’Angelo Russell in the lineup, there aren’t many shots left. On the bright side, I’m currently way wrong because he’s averaging 24.5 points in four games with Towns so far.
Most importantly, let’s revel in the fact that Gersson Rosas finally hit on an asset. The Beasley trade might single-handedly save his job if the season continues the way it’s going. Malik is playing out of his mind. He would have to play even more out of his mind to win Most Improved Player, but in fairness he might actually be out of his mind.
