With three weeks to go before the trade deadline, the Minnesota Timberwolves are sellers. They own the worst record in the NBA at 7-29, have lost nine in a row, and just fired their head coach.
But here’s a problem: Assuming the Wolves are not looking to trade Karl-Anthony Towns at the deadline, then clearly almost everybody else should be movable on the roster, no? Well, the problem with being a seven-win team that is adamant that you’re not trading your best player is that other teams aren’t exactly interested in your role players.
Below I’ve placed the players that the Timberwolves should be looking to move into four groups. I’ve also provided what I would consider a good return for them.
Probably Only Valuable To The Team and Stans
Jake Layman, Naz Reid, Ed Davis, Jordan McLaughlin, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Jaylen Nowell offer more value as developmental pieces to the Wolves or do not have enough value to merit a trade. Either way, Minnesota won’t get enough in return for them to look to move them.
Whatever You Can Get
I don’t expect Rubio to be that controversial. He’s a proven playoff-level point guard, but he’s also in the midst of his worst-ever season since he last left Minnesota and proved he could be a playoff starter. And he’s owed $18 million next year.
The following statement is a nice little precursor foreshadowing the theme of this entire analysis. I know this is going to hurt to read considering that the Timberwolves got nickels on the dollar for Ricky last time around too, but between his poor play and given the team’s near-term outlook, it’s going to be hard to find anybody who views Rubio as an asset and is willing to agree to a trade.
This year has been an absolute disaster of a showcase in the theoretical value that Josh Okogie can bring to an NBA team. He plays hard and commits to defending his isolation matchups with a zest you can’t find much of elsewhere in the league. However, he provides absolutely nothing of value regarding his individual offensive contributions, struggling to shoot or finish. And the team’s Defensive Rating is almost unchanged this season whether he’s on or off the court.
On top of this that Okogie is extension-eligible this summer and will be an RFA after next season. It’s hard to forecast any team willing to shell out an asset for a player who hasn’t proven anything in this league and will get very expensive very quickly if he does for the one year he’s under contract.
“But you can’t trade DLo until he and KAT have a chance to play together, Spencer!”
Yes, you can, and if another team offers even just a second-round pick and an expiring for him this season, you should. DLo wasn’t able to keep this team afloat without KAT, and it’s unjustifiable to allocate a max contract for the next two seasons for a player who can’t even guarantee that you won’t be the worst team in the league if your main star goes down.
Are the Timberwolves okay with spending two max slots on two players who can’t even keep games close without the other and have no interest in playing defense? Russell isn’t scoring efficiently, doesn’t defend, and has shown no ability to elevate his teammates on offense.
If you can clean your books and recoup even a second-rounder, then admit defeat and let’s start trying to plan for the next era of Timberwolves basketball.
Pick Up The Phone and Hear Them Out
Karl-Anthony Towns
I’ve been advocating for trading KAT for months, and I’m not going to stop now. But it seems unlikely given Rosas’ commitment to him and Towns’ recent comments about staying in Minnesota.
Advocating to trade Culver breaks my heart. A strong start to the year fizzled, then he got hurt, and he hasn’t been impressive in the three games since he’s returned.
I’m not advocating for a fire sale yet because, as of right now, he’s the only player on this team who I’m confident can defend and occasionally hit an open shot (5 of 14 on the year on his open catch-and-shoot jumpers). However, Culver’s time with the Timberwolves has been a saga within a saga of ineptitude and failure. The Wolves have gone out of their way to let the world know they didn’t want Culver with the sixth pick and that if other teams are interested, they should give them a ring.
Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels
As for the rookies, yeah, again, not sorry. I’m not going to act like either one of these guys are sure-fire things when they’re currently the furthest thing from it.
Edwards is shooting 37% from the field; McDaniels is shooting 38%. Broken-spirit Anthony Bennett shot 36% from the field his rookie year, but his team benched him, so I guess it’s remembered worse than this for some reason? These shooting percentages are Emmanuel Mudiay, Stanley Johnson, and Kris Dunn levels of bad.
If another team is offering first-rounders, the Timberwolves need to listen intently to the offers on two rookies who haven’t strung together back-to-back strong games yet this season. I will say this, at least McDaniels is making his open shots (19 of 50 on the year on his open catch and shoot jumpers), but when he’s attacked 25 closeouts this season and come away with two points with 17 missed shots and seven turnovers, it’s not all about the team situation or rookie nerves.
Also, in case you couldn’t guess it, I would’ve gladly traded Edwards for future firsts before he ever even played an NBA minute. That opinion is not changing because he dunked on a few people while bleeding awful shots and defensive lapses for 36 games. Unless Chris Finch can coax Edwards out of all of these habits that coaches have allowed him to perpetuate since his time at Georgia, this might just be who Edwards is.
What’s most embarrassing about his shooting percentages so far into his rookie season is that of his 536 field goal attempts, only 36 of them have come in the final four seconds of the shot clock. Edwards either takes terrible shots because he doesn’t pay attention or just doesn’t care enough to know he’s taking them.
People used to think Andrew Wiggins’ smile was adorable, too. At least he shot 44% as a rookie.
If some team like the Orlando Magic or Cleveland Cavaliers offer the Timberwolves a get-out-of-jail-free card and would swap their first-round pick this year for Edwards, Rosas has to take the offer. I doubt it’s coming, though.
The Sweet Spot
Hey, I can admit when I’ve been wrong! After the draft, I was pretty on the fence about bringing Beasley back. But here we are, months later, the Timberwolves’ guard rotation is the mess I thought it would be, and yet Bealey has been the only every-night player to bring a positive impact to this team consistently.
So, why trade him?
To put it bluntly: The Timberwolves could probably get multiple first-round picks for a player who is unlikely to be around the next time they make a push for the playoffs.
And yes, I say that knowing full well that Beasley is only 24 and under contract for the next four seasons.
But that’s the reality of this situation that the Timberwolves have backed themselves into.
They have the franchise cornerstone that they are adamant is not for sale. They have a second max player they’d be lucky to get cap relief for, never mind positive returning value. That’s over $60 million a year for two unmovable players.
Then they have all the other players listed above. The ones who fall into categories such as Whatever You Can Get and Probably Only Valuable To the Team and Stans. They already have $128 million allocated in guaranteed money for the next season, and the luxury tax threshold is projected to be $138 million. On top of this roster outlook, the Timberwolves only have a 40% chance of keeping their first-round pick this year.
Something has to give. Something has to rearm these depleted reserves.
Frankly, if you can’t stomach the idea of trading Edwards, who else will do it? Or are we just going to keep kicking this can down the road? You know, the thing that has gotten the Timberwolves into this decades-long nightmare in the first place.
Beasley is not a good defender, he has not been a very consistent player at any point before this one, and he’s never shot this well from three. This team isn’t going anywhere fast in the next two years, even on the most optimistic timeline for keeping the first-rounder this year and a robust developmental curve for both Edwards and McDaniels.
In a situation, if a team short on shooting but with title aspirations (like the New York Knicks or Los Angeles Lakers) calls Rosas and offers either one strong first-round pick and a young, high-upside player or two middling- to-late firsts, the Timberwolves just can’t pass that up.
