It’s been a predictably up-and-down first quarter of the NBA season for the Minnesota Timberwolves. But for the first time in what seems like a lifetime, the downs don’t vastly outnumber the ups.
Following a 32-point loss to the Utah Jazz on Wednesday, the Timberwolves are 11-14 and ninth in the Western Conference standings. They have impressive wins over the Milwaukee Bucks, Miami Heat, and Philadelphia 76ers. The Wolves put together a five-game winning streak and are playing their best defense in years. Conversely, they lost six in a row earlier in the year and are on a four-game skid. Minnesota lost to the New Orleans Pelicans and Orlando Magic earlier this year and reignited the ancient custom of blowing giant fourth-quarter leads.
If you told your average Wolves fan before the season that they’d be in the thick of the playoff race with Anthony Edwards on the cusp of superstardom, most of us would be pretty happy with the result. However, it seems as if the season is already teetering on the edge. At any moment, it’s ready to fall into the abyss that is the last 18 years of Timberwolves fandom. Minnesota has lost four straight after winning seven of eight and is in the midst of one of the most challenging stretches of the season.
The next month will make or break their season. If the Wolves can survive through the new year, they’ll be in a prime position to make a charge in the second half.
So far this season, Minnesota has played the 16th toughest schedule in the NBA with a relatively evenly projected record of 12-13 according to ESPN’s strength of schedule and expected win-loss metrics. Chris Finch’s squad has done a remarkable job beating the teams they should beat this season with a 6-2 record against teams under .500. Unfortunately, they haven’t been able to punch above their weight class often with just a 5-12 record against teams .500 and above. The Wolves play only two teams below .500, the Portland Trail Blazers and New York Knicks, between now until Jan. 6. And they have the 12th-toughest schedule remaining, according to Tankathon.
The Wolves are already riding an ugly four-game losing streak that would balloon to double digits in the past.
Wednesday night’s beatdown at the hands of the Jazz was Minnesota’s worst loss of the season and may have exposed the defense’s weaknesses. The Wolves travel to Utah twice in nine days over the holidays and have two games against a healthy Lakers team. They have a home-and-home series against Luka Doncic, a tussle with reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, and games against an upstart Cleveland Cavaliers team, the Boston Celtics, and the Los Angeles Clippers over the next month. Minnesota must hang on through this tough stretch as the Western Conference playoff race begins to tighten up.
There are currently eight teams in the West within 3.5 games of fourth place. A few big wins or bad losses in December could be the difference between home-court advantage or missing the play-in tournament entirely.
The good news is that they’re already through the most brutal stretch. After beating New Orleans on Nov. 23, they had a gauntlet eight-game stretch that included the Miami Heat, Charlotte Hornets, Philadelphia 76ers, Indiana Pacers, Washington Wizards, Brooklyn Nets, Atlanta Hawks, and Utah Jazz. Every team except for Indiana has playoff aspirations. Some are championship contenders. Outside of Utah, no team they play during this 12-game stretch is higher than fifth in its conference. They are winnable games, but stringing these many legitimate teams together usually spell disaster for the Wolves.
After a January-fourth tilt with the Clippers, Minnesota will have 45 games remaining on their schedule. Of those 45 games, 24 are against teams with a winning record. Twenty-one of them have losing records. That’s a much more favorable breakdown than the first half of the season. In their first 37 games, the Wolves have or will face 27 teams currently at or above .500.
There are still plenty of challenging games during the back half of the season. They have three more games against the Golden State Warriors and Jazz, two against the Phoenix Suns and Chicago Bulls, and another game against the Bucks and Nets. But with far more breaks and winnable games in between. Minnesota still has four games to play against the Oklahoma City Thunder, a team that just lost by 73 points. They still have two games against the Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, and San Antonio Spurs. And The Wolves have a chance to redeem their early-season losses to Orlando and New Orleans with plenty of games against the Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, and Toronto Raptors baked into the schedule.
By no means should the Wolves do what they usually do and take these easier opponents for granted. If they slip into their old ways of playing down to their opponents while getting slaughtered by the good teams, the season will be lost by the All-Star Break. But, if they can survive the next 12 games and come out the other side as close to .500 as possible, then the Wolves will be fine.
