Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Browns/Pittsburgh Steelers First Half Under 21.5 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN
The first meeting between these teams in Week 8 saw a halftime score of 3-3, and I’m expecting another low-scoring start here.
The Steelers just love to start slow and ugly for some reason, averaging only 4.1 points in the first half of their past 7 games. It’s also been since before Thanksgiving that we’ve seen QB Ben Roethlisberger throw a touchdown in the first half. Cleveland isn’t much better at starting games though, averaging just 6.8 points at halftime the past 6 weeks. Browns QB Baker Mayfield’s wild inconsistency, propensity for turnovers, and poor statistical track record against Pittsburgh will also help to hold down the scoring here.
I see the Browns being likely to keep it on the ground as much as possible to avoid Mayfield putting them in a bad spot. Cleveland is also lacking motivation since they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs, so I see the clock running and the offenses sputtering early on tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Washington/Arizona Over 152 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Pac12 Network
I’d have a tough time coming up with a scenario where holding an under ticket with this Arizona team at home is advantageous. I think this is another spot where the excellent Wildcats offense goes wild.
Arizona is coming off their first loss of the season in a game where that offense really struggled in the first half, and they’ve had almost 2 weeks to think about it. Coach Tommy Lloyd will have no problem running the score up tonight off that down performance, and I could easily see them flying past their home scoring average of 95.1 PPG.
The question then becomes how much a putrid Washington offense will contribute to the total. What they will contribute, though, is pace: The Huskies are 11th in possessions per game. Arizona plays at the 7th-fastest pace in the country, so a frenetic tempo should create enough points if Arizona keeps the pedal down all game.
Degenerates
NBA Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks -16 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports WI
The Bucks are back to their old ways of running over bad teams, having wrecked the Magic twice and Pelicans once in their past 3 games. They’ve averaged 133 points in those games, and won by more than this margin each time.
Milwaukee has also had an easy time with the Pistons this season, winning by 28 and 21 in the first two meetings. It’s possible Khris Middleton is out again tonight, but he missed a previous game against Detroit this season and it did not matter. This is obviously just a bad matchup for Detroit, and even though it’s a lot of points, I’ll count on the Bucks to stay hot here.
Tiny Nick is 510-395 ATS (+85.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
