Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat/Portland Trail Blazers Over 216 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW
With all the star players who are out for this game, I can understand why this total is posted so low. But reserves have been getting into absolute shootouts lately, and I think we could be in for another one here.
Miami certainly doesn’t have a reputation for getting into high-scoring games, but that’s exactly what they’ve been doing recently. The Heat have gone over this number in six of the past seven, a function of reserves playing more up-tempo. As for Portland, you would think no Damian Lillard or CJ McCollum drastically slows down their offense, but they put up 136 points on Monday without them.
The Blazers’ defense has been atrocious though, allowing 126.6 PPG their past five and now ranking dead last in defensive rating on the season. A Heat squad that’s one of the better shooting teams in the league should have no problem putting up plenty of points. I see that easily carrying this game over a very moderate total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Citadel/Western Carolina Under 155.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Citadel unders have been one of my favorite against-the-grain plays going back to last winter, and I see another good opportunity for one here.
There is still a perception of Citadel as a great over bet, however, they’ve only gone over this total once in a non-overtime DI game this season. Western Carolina meanwhile is 6-6 to this total on the year, but 3-0 to the under in true home games. The Catamounts are just different at home, allowing 12.1 fewer points per game and .235 fewer points per possession.
These teams aren’t great defensively overall and they both take a lot of threes, so it’s not easy to hold an under ticket here. But this strikes me as a case of reputation and overall numbers inflating the total since that typically dictates how these under-the-radar games are booked. I’ll continue my contrarian approach with Citadel here and count on this total being a little too high.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Texas Tech @ Iowa St -4 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPNU
I think this is a pretty fair number, so I don’t see much quantifiable edge on this game. But what I do see is a Cyclones team that’s still underappreciated, especially with some Hilton magic on their side tonight.
It’s an extremely pivotal game for Iowa State here as a loss would prove the doubters right, but I see them responding behind a strong home-court advantage. Texas Tech is really just trading on an ugly neutral court win over Tennessee, a game that could’ve gone either way with how awful the shooting was. The only other times they’ve played away from home resulted in losses to good teams, with the Red Raiders having lots of trouble on offense.
That’s likely to continue here against a Cyclones team that’s now third in defensive efficiency, setting up a defensive slugfest with Tech right behind them at sixth. The Red Raiders will also be without star guard Terrance Shannon Jr. tonight, so I see the excellent ISU defense leading them to a needed win while covering this short number.
Degenerates
NBA Atlanta Hawks/Sacramento Kings Over 230 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
It’s very important to monitor Trae Young’s status for this game since he’s questionable with a back injury. His presence is massive for how Atlanta plays to the total, as their past five games with him have flown over this number while the three without him have been dead unders.
If Young plays though, this is an excellent spot for the offense to take over. Sacramento is on a back-to-back with travel here, having played a high-possession game last night in Los Angeles. Both of these teams are already bottom five in defensive rating, love to play fast, and can really shoot from deep. Bad defense will be the story here if Young is in the game and should push this well over the total.
Tiny Nick is 513-397 ATS (+85.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
