Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Creighton -1.5 vs Arkansas (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
I was surprised to see Arkansas open as a short favorite in this Maui showdown, in particular because I expect the Razorbacks to still be without star freshman Nick Smith Jr. Creighton should be favored over them regardless, and the market certainly corrected that overnight. I still like the Blue Jays here though, as the matchup should favor them.
Creighton played an almost perfect second half yesterday after a sloppy start in Maui. They’ll need to continue that here against an Arkansas defense that relies on forcing turnovers. But Creighton is 13th nationally in taking care of the ball, with plenty of talent and experience in their backcourt to counter the Arkansas style. Meanwhile, I’m just not seeing enough offensively from the Hogs without Smith available, and that should let the elite Jays offense to pull away in this one.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) San Diego St./Arizona Over 164 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN
This is a huge number, especially for a neutral court environment where unders are usually a better play. But both teams had a game yesterday to get accustomed to Lahaina Civic Center, and both were barn-burners. I did not expect it from San Diego State, but they look like a much different team offensively from years past.
The Aztecs are shooting extremely well, especially from deep, and have a much higher pace as well. They’ll need all the offense they can muster against this Arizona juggernaut. The Wildcats haven’t lost a step from last season, leading or ranking top-10 in most offensive metrics, and playing at the fastest pace in the country.
That’s why Arizona is 4-0 to the over, beating the total by the nation’s highest average margin of 23.9 points. It’s exceedingly difficult for books to line totals when their lowest output this season is 95 points and they’re averaging 104.3. I don’t think they went high enough here either, so expect another wild game here between excellent scoring squads.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 954-795 ATS (+86.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
