NFL (0.5 Unit) Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans +1.5 (-110): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
How do the Titans continue to get disrespected? Joe Mixon is out for this game. Ja’Marr Chase will not return from injury today. And, most importantly, Mike Vrabel and the Titans are coming off extended rest after their Thursday win in Green Bay. That’s important because in Vrabel’s tenure Tennessee has had extended rest for 8 regular season games, going 8-0 ATS and straight up while beating the spread by 17.5 points on average.
This is also a revenge spot for Tennessee after the Bengals knocked them out of the playoffs last season. Unlike that game, the Titans have a healthy Derrick Henry who is hitting his stride. They also still have the pass rush that sacked Joe Burrow 8 times in that game, and we’ve seen Burrow continue to struggle against pressure this season. For a team that’s covered every game from Week 3 on, Tennessee just doesn’t get the credit they deserve, but they’re definitely worth continuing to back in this spot.
NFL (0.75 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (-105)
Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders (-185): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
This Washington team is still catching some disrespect in the market because of how bad they were with Carson Wentz under center. The change to Taylor Heinicke has been the best thing for them both on the field, and in the locker room, where he garners more respect from the team. But this is also a good matchup for the Commanders overall against a Falcons team that should be more disrespected than they are.
Atlanta comes into this game having lost Kyle Pitts for the season, which will force their offense to be even more one-dimensional and predictable. A team as run-heavy as the Falcons should have trouble against a Washington defense that’s second against the run by DVOA metrics. And no team has a worse defense on the road than the Falcons, so I’m expecting Heinicke and his strong connection to Terry McLaurin to continue producing against a banged-up secondary. That should earn Washington its sixth win in the past seven games as they remain in the playoff hunt.
New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers (-400): 3:25 PM CT on FOX
Not many teams are hotter than San Francisco right now, and they’re priced accordingly. I don’t have any interest in laying close to double-digits with the Niners, especially given Kyle Shanahan’s ATS struggles as a big home favorite. But I don’t see them losing this game to an outmatched New Orleans squad, so adding the moneyline to this parlay is a smarter play.
There just doesn’t seem to be any way for the Saints, who are very banged-up along the defensive front, to stop San Francisco’s run game. Meanwhile, a Saints team forced to rely on the run will face one of the best defensive fronts in football, with the 49ers ranking 3rd in DVOA against the run. San Fran needs to capitalize on games like this for their playoff push, and while I smell another blowout from them, I’ll make the safer bet here on them just winning the game.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 960-799 ATS (+87.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.