Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 @ NY Knicks (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
This number has been steaming hard towards Memphis and I can see why. The Grizzlies are the best team to back in road games, going 17-8 ATS for the top record in the league. Meanwhile, the Knicks have the look of a team that’s giving up, with losses in 6 of their past 8 games and sitting in last place in the Atlantic division.
But I’m just really a fan of how this Memphis team is playing. They’re ranked in the top-10 of both offensive and defensive rating, plus they are the best rebounding team in the league. New York’s typical starting lineup has one of the worst NET ratings in the NBA, so I see the Grizzlies getting out front early and grabbing another road win.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Kentucky Team Total Over 78 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on SEC Network
A mere 78 points for a team who averages 82.1 on the season, 87.8 at home, and already put up this many on the road against Vanderbilt? Sign me up.
Kentucky is the 6th-highest scoring team at home, scores a monstrous 1.192 points per possession, and shoots a ridiculous 52.3% on their own floor. That all adds up to them putting another big number on a weak SEC opponent here, who they’ve been wrecking at home with an average 91 PPG. Vanderbilt is also just 247th in rebounding, which will allow the country’s best offensive rebounder Oscar Tshiebwe to create even more scoring chances for Kentucky.
The Wildcats also have an extra gear that’s rare in college basketball, and it usually comes out at home where they play considerably faster. I expect to see it plenty tonight with how this team is rolling, and they should cruise over this team total.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Villanova @ Marquette +4.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on FS1
Shaka Smart deserves a ton of credit for what he has done with this Marquette team, and I think they’re a live dog at home again tonight.
It might not be the original Havoc defense, but Smart’s Golden Eagles can still put opponents in a blender like they did to Villanova just two weeks ago. The Wildcats are heavily reliant on shooting threes, but Marquette has been very good at defending beyond the arc, limiting Nova to 25% in that first meeting. If Marquette can recreate that defense while leaning on a strong home-court advantage, they should be in position to stay close or pull the upset.
The Golden Eagles are on an 8-game cover streak, taking down 3 ranked teams at the Fiserv Forum in the process. Villanova has struggled on the road against quality competition this season, and this is a tough spot for them to try to get revenge. This many points is a decent cushion with a Marquette team that should be right there at the end.
Degenerates
NBA Portland Trail Blazers/LA Lakers Over 223 (-110): 9:30 PM CT on SportsNet LA
I’d really like this bet if I was fully confident in who is playing for each team. The injury list is a mile long in this game, however, including the most important name in LeBron James, who is not expected to play. Regardless, we’ve seen plenty of instances this season of the reserves playing pick-up basketball and that could be the case again here.
The defense has looked fairly rough for the Lakers in recent games, and returning home from a long road trip often sees that continue. Meanwhile, the Blazers have started to regain some of their offensive pop with the return of CJ McCollum, and their 28th-rated defense continues to be a liability. The market seems to believe the secondary scorers can pick up the slack here as this total is on the rise. I’ll cautiously trust that they do as well.
Tiny Nick is 561-446 ATS (+78.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
