Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers/Atlanta Hawks Over 226.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports IN
Both of these teams are looking to bounce back offensively from poor performances on Sunday, and as a result, I don’t see much effort being put into defense tonight.
Sunday saw the Hawks and Pacers both defy their recent high-scoring trends, but those were against strong defensive teams. Tonight is a matchup of the 25th and 27th teams in defensive efficiency, so that end of the floor is not likely to take priority. Indiana has been truly awful on defense lately, causing their 11 games prior to Sunday to average 238.8 points. I suspect some mean reversion is in store tonight against a Hawks team with one of the best offenses in the league.
Atlanta happens to love mean reversion off their low-scoring games. The past 7 times they’ve failed to crack 210 points in a game like they did Sunday, their next game averages 237.4 points. Both these teams are quite capable of making this a defense-optional shootout, and that’s exactly what I see happening.
NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Clippers @ Memphis Grizzlies -8 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
This Grizzlies freight train keeps on rolling, and while their value will be overinflated at some point I don’t see it being tonight. Memphis looks to sweep the 4-game season series with the Clippers tonight, and their 3 previous wins over LA have also been covers. No surprise from the best covering team in the NBA, as the Grizzlies are now 36-19 ATS on the year.
That should continue against this collection of reserves for the Clippers, whose losses to Memphis this season have come by an average of 11 points. It’s important to note that LA even had Paul George for two of those losses, and the game he missed was the most lopsided result. Laying this many points in the NBA can be difficult, but I just can’t step in front of the Grizzlies right now, and I think they roll again here.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/LA Lakers Over 230.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
Okay, I’ll admit it, I don’t want to watch this game and not be holding an over ticket. That’s an extremely square justification, but I really think this game will be fast-paced with plenty of scoring for the national TV audience.
The Lakers haven’t exactly been impressing anyone with their defense lately and had no answer for a weak Knicks offense on Saturday night. Now they face a Bucks team that has poured in 137 points in consecutive games and looks to be back to their usual selves. That generally means shootouts, as evidenced by the fact that at least one team has scored 120-plus in 7 of Milwaukee’s past 10 games.
The Lakers are the fastest-paced team in the league overall and at home, with those games averaging the most possessions in the league. Maximizing the possessions for this Bucks team right now is a recipe for a shootout, and I think we get one here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Marquette +6 @ UConn (-110): 5:30 PM CT on FS1
I didn’t understand the line movement here towards UConn, and I just have to punch back against the market with this red-hot Marquette team.
The Golden Eagles have covered 9 straight games, and at 11-4 ATS have one of the best records as an underdog in the country. Shaka Smart’s team also travels extremely well, going 6-1 against the number on the road. This team just keeps getting it done, especially against the best of the Big East as their past 6 games have been against ranked teams.
By comparison, I just haven’t been impressed by UConn lately, with their recent 5-game winning streak coming against the bottom 4 teams in the conference. The results were ugly once they stepped up in class the past two games, and now they get the hottest team in the league. I would definitely put the Huskies on upset alert in this game, and will gladly take this many points of insurance.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Ohio @ Toledo -2.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN3
This is all about the situational handicapping aspect of college basketball, and the spot here sets up extremely well for the home team.
The Toledo Rocket ship sputtered out over the weekend in an obvious look-ahead game to tonight. But I’m willing to excuse that performance because of how typical it is for college hoops. I’m also more than willing to back the team with the 6th-best cover rate in the country, in a home hype spot, and in need of a bounceback. I was willing to lay it with the Rockets at the opener of 4, and I’m happy to take the discounted number of less than a full possession.
The Rockets simply know how to beat Ohio, who is a quality team in their own right but just hasn’t figured out their opponent here. The Bobcats were dismantled on their own floor in the first meeting, and I just don’t think they match up well with Toledo. There were 9 straight wins and covers for Toledo before Friday’s slip, so I see the Rockets asserting their dominance and getting back on track tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) St. Mary’s @ Santa Clara +2.5 (-110): 10:00 PM CT on ESPNU
I’m usually looking to fade mid-major teams who have been newly minted with a top-25 label, especially on the road against a quality opponent. That’s exactly what we have tonight with St. Mary’s traveling to a Santa Clara team with revenge on its mind. The Broncos have quietly been playing excellent basketball since their loss at St. Mary’s three weeks ago, thanks to a return to health by their stars. They have the shooting to score on anyone, even the outstanding Gaels defense.
I also really don’t buy the St. Mary’s ascension into the top-25 rankings. It’s a rise built on 4 wins over the 3 WCC bottom-feeders, plus being the beneficiary of an epic San Francisco collapse where the Gaels came back from 23 points down. A tough road game here with the distraction of their ranking is the perfect spot to fade the Gaels, so I’ll back the home dog to get their revenge.
Degenerates
NBA Minnesota Timberwolves/Sacramento Kings Over 234 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Tonight has one of the highest totals the Wolves have seen all season, and while they’re just 3-4 to the over when the total is in the 230’s this shapes up as another over. Minnesota has by far the best over record on the road, going 20-7 with the league’s highest plus/minus to the total of +7.8 as well. The last 3 road games for the Wolves have averaged a ridiculous 247.3 points, so they’re definitely living up to the trends.
While the Kings don’t have that stellar of a totals record, they do have the awful defense needed to get this game over. They also have the likely return of De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III tonight to boost their offense and help push the pace. The Wolves by comparison are likely to be shorthanded tonight, leading to tired legs and less defense. But with two very capable offenses on the floor, we should see enough points to get over this number.
Tiny Nick is 573-460 ATS (+77.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
