Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers/Brooklyn Nets Over 240.5 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN
This total has rocketed up, and I’d say with good reason. Unlike yesterday’s over bet, this game actually matters, at least for Brooklyn. That means we should see a full effort from the Nets as they try to secure the 7th seed for this week’s play-in tournament. A full Nets effort usually means offense, and there should be plenty of it against the Pacers.
Indiana has completely given up on the defensive end to close the season, allowing 120-plus in 8 straight and 12 of their past 16 games. But they’re doing their part on the offensive end, as those past 8 games have averaged 243.9 points. The Nets have flashed some defense against 3 straight poor offenses, but this team is nowhere close to having a trustworthy defense. Brooklyn should also be more than willing to play Indiana’s up-tempo style, maximizing the possessions for two strong offenses.
Indiana has crossed the 250 point mark in 4 of their past 6, and I see another coming here.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Brooklyn Nets -6 First Quarter (-110)
I mentioned that this game matters for Brooklyn, and that should get them to come out strong here. They should have no trouble since Indiana has been just awful to start games recently. The Pacers have been down after a quarter in all of their 9 straight losses, with an average deficit of 12.8 points. In their past 5 road games against playoff teams, they’ve been down by more than this number each time, with an average 14.6 point deficit. If the Nets want to stomp on the Pacers early they certainly can, and I think they will given the trends here.
NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets -5.5 First Half (-110): 8:30 PM CT on Altitude
There are interesting seeding implications for this game, so here’s my theory: the Nuggets kind of care. Theoretically, Denver could overtake Utah for both the division title and the 5th seed, but they would need the Jazz to lose in Portland. That’s an unlikely upset, but I see the Nuggets giving a full effort early anyway until some scoreboard watching tells them Utah is likely to win. And it’s not like they’re facing that tough of an opponent here either.
The Lakers will not have LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook (okay, that last one might be addition by subtraction, but still…), or Carmelo Anthony in this game. Denver has their own key injury concerns so monitor those closely. But with the line movement and my scoreboard-watching theory, I’m inclined to believe we would see those important players, at least early on. The Nuggets have already crushed far healthier versions of the Lakers in both meetings this season, so I’m confident they can cruise early here against all backups.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 673-548 ATS (+79.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
