Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves/Boston Red Sox Over 9.5 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on TBS
With suspect pitchers, strong offenses, and good matchup splits, this game has lots of runs written all over it. The biggest factor has to be Rich Hill starting for Boston. He has looked like an ageless wonder at times this season, but he’s in a tough spot here. The Braves absolutely hammer lefties like Hill, and they get to see at Fenway, where his 6.49 ERA is nearly double what it is on the road. Other teams with lots of great right-handed bats have punished Hill this season, and Atlanta might be the most potent opponent yet.
And a Red Sox lineup that’s returning to health should be able to get to Charlie Morton here. The Braves righty is far worse on the road this season, and Boston has had much more offensive pop in their home park. Both teams are also coming off tough series that would imply a high-scoring game here. Boston just averaged 12 runs per game with the Kansas City Royals over the weekend, while the New York Mets lit up Atlanta’s pitchers for 5.6 runs per game. These are probably the most vulnerable starters both teams have, so those trends should continue and create an over in this one.
MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees/Seattle Mariners Over 7 (-110): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network
This number seems to reflect two things: T-Mobile Park being tough for hitters and Gerrit Cole also being tough for hitters. But the ballpark couldn’t hold down these offenses last night when they put up 13 total runs, and that was with two of the best pitchers from both teams starting.
And if you haven’t noticed, Cole is having one of the worst stretches of his career. The Yankee ace has a 7.00 ERA across his past 3 starts, a 4.28 road ERA, and just got knocked around by this Mariners team in his last game. If any of those struggles continue, Seattle should be able to contribute considerably to this total.
And while I loved the Luis Castillo acquisition for the Mariners, he also just faced the Yankees in his last start. Another look at Castillo for this dangerous lineup could be bad news for him but good for scoring. The bottom line is these teams have played all 4 meetings this season well over this total, with 11.5 runs on average. It’s just too low of a total in my opinion that is respecting angles undeserving of this much respect.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 820-690 ATS (+73.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
