There is plenty of excitement in Eagan these days after the Minnesota Vikings traded for T.J. Hockenson.
When he showed up at TCO Performance Center on Wednesday, Hockenson mentioned that he saw the memes about going from the 1-6 Detroit Lions to the 6-1 Vikings. He said that his parents travel to every game from his hometown of Cherokee, Iowa and now have half the drive time to watch him play. He also looks like an actual Viking, which is a nice touch.
But what Vikings fans are excited about is what he brings to the offense. With Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, Kevin O’Connell has two of the best route-runners in the NFL at his disposal. With Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison, he has a steady running game. And with Hockenson, he has a tight end who can pancake a defensive lineman or make a spectacular catch in the middle of the field.
All of this makes the final weeks of the 2022 season intriguing as they push for a playoff spot. But the Hockenson trade might mean even better things for 2023.
When Kwesi Adofo-Mensah took over as general manager, he could have torn the roster down completely. When he chose to keep the current core in place, his initial plan was to compete and observe in 2022 and build for 2023.
That plan began in the draft, where Adofo-Mensah took more projects than players ready to contribute. Lewis Cine didn’t play much before his season-ending injury, and Andrew Booth Jr. and Brian Asamoah haven’t been able to crack the starting lineup for various reasons.
Adofo-Mensah probably knew it would take time to develop these players going in, so he went to work finding players who could fill holes. Or, as Kevin O’Connell puts it, winning in the margins.
A series of shrewd free-agency signings helped the Vikings fill in the back half of their roster. Adofo-Mensah even added some impact players like Za’Darius Smith. That satisfied the “competitive” part of “competitive rebuild” but didn’t guarantee success. Fortunately, this year’s Vikings have accelerated that “time horizon.”
At 6-1, the Vikings are in the hunt for a top seed in the NFC. Although they have some flaws, the front office could have contently observed to see what their team would do and make the necessary adjustments to get over the hump in 2023.
That’s where Hockenson comes into play.
Under Rick Spielman, the Vikings were much more cautious in the trade market. That is, until it became an absolute emergency.
When Teddy Bridgewater tore his ACL in the weeks leading up to the 2016 season, the Vikings gave up a first-round pick to acquire Sam Bradford. Less than two years later, Bradford’s knee disintegrated. The Philadelphia Eagles took Derek Barnett with the pick that Minnesota traded them and strip-sacked Case Keenum in the NFC Championship game.
The Vikings traded for Yannick Ngakoue when Danielle Hunter suffered a neck injury in 2020. A few weeks later, the Vikings’ coaching staff decided he wasn’t a fit for their scheme, and they traded him to the Baltimore Ravens for pennies on the dollar.
When Irv Smith Jr. tore his meniscus in the final preseason game in August 2021, Spielman grabbed the phone and traded a fourth-round pick for Chris Herndon. The New York Jets’ TE4 before the trade, Herndon, had a limited role, and the new regime didn’t retain him.
All of these deals are similar to the Vikings’ Hockenson trade, but this one was done with an emphasis on the future.
The Lions decided to exercise Hockenson’s fifth-year option, meaning he will make $9.3 million in 2023. That number is difficult to fit underneath next year’s cap. The Vikings are currently $5 million over, according to Over The Cap. But can be fixed with an extension.
The good news is that the Vikings probably want to extend Hockenson anyway. At 6’5” and 251 lbs., he’s a massive target with a better athletic profile than Smith’s coming out of college.
Hockenson also profiles as a perfect fit for the Vikings’ offense. In August, O’Connell mentioned George Kittle by name when discussing what he was looking for from his tight ends.
“I think a lot of people around the league look at the tight end position as catching touchdowns and the flashy plays people see,” O’Connell said. “[Kittle] is a guy, he does all of those things, but what he also does is he blocks in the run game and has a major impact on the play-action pass game.”
Hockenson fits the receiver description. He has nearly doubled Smith’s career production after coming into the league in 2019.
These numbers aren’t shocking, considering Detroit made Hockenson the eighth overall pick in 2019, and the Vikings took Smith 42 picks later. But Hockenson also makes an impact in the blocking game, which is part of Smith’s game that has never developed.
That’s all about the present, but how does this affect the future? Well, if the Vikings sign Hockenson to an extension, they can lower his cap number, which can help the Vikings add pieces next season. We’ve already discussed what Adofo-Mensah has done with limited resources, and he still has enough capital to fill in the blanks in next year’s draft.
The Vikings gave up a second-round pick in the trade but were able to hold onto their first, which allows them to address one of their premium needs in the draft.
If the Vikings want to find a younger receiver to pair with Jefferson, they can do that. They can do that if they want to draft an edge rusher because Smith is too expensive. And if they want to find a succession plan for Cousins, they can do that too. There are plenty of options on the table.
The Vikings also received two fourth-round picks from the Lions, which mitigates the trade’s cost. We already know this regime isn’t afraid to trade up in the draft, which is another difference from the old one. So they could use those picks to get back into the second round.
There’s also a chance the Vikings can stay back and draft a player at a non-premium position. Maybe they want to take a linebacker to succeed Eric Kendricks. How about they take Cook’s replacement? What about another cornerback or safety? Even a center or a guard could be on the table.
The Vikings hope the trade for Hockenson nets them a championship this season. But if it doesn’t, they can try it again next year. Either way, it crosses one need off their list and gives them the ability to add some depth to their roster.
