On Tuesday, during his 9 to Noon show on KFAN, Paul Allen brought up the possibility of a draft-night trade (13:25 mark). However, this proclamation went against the conventional thinking that Minnesota Vikings fans have held. Instead of trading down from pick No. 12, the voice of the Vikings floated another scenario. “A move from (pick) 12 to four could happen,” he announced on the airwaves.
After years of watching Rick Spielman trade down during the draft, trading up would feel like uncharted waters. A trade into the top five would be new general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s signature move in his first draft. It would signal a different way of doing business on draft day. But would a trade up, whether to pick No. 4 or somewhere else in the top 10, make sense?
Some analytics sites like Pro Football Focus suggest that teams shouldn’t trade up unless the goal is to draft a quarterback. The reasoning is that quarterbacks can alter a franchise. Conversely, most other positions produce good or great players, but they don’t get teams over the hump.
The Vikings only have Kirk Cousins signed through the 2023 season. If they feel strongly about Malik Willis’ potential, he could sit behind Cousins for at least one season. However, a trade to move up and draft a quarterback seems unlikely because they signed Cousins to an extension at the beginning of the offseason. The new regime appears to be operating with a run-it-back mentality. Therefore, an aggressive trade-up for a player who won’t contribute in 2022 would seem to go against everything they have done this off-season.
So if a quarterback is unlikely, should the Vikings be willing to give up a future first-round pick to move up and select another position? Let’s look at a recent example.
In 2018, the New Orleans Saints traded up from pick No. 27 to No. 14 to grab defensive end Marcus Davenport. They dealt a fifth-round pick and their 2019 first-round pick to the Green Bay Packers to snag him. However, Davenport has been underwhelming in his four seasons. He’s only started 23 of the 48 games he has played in, notching 21 sacks.
Fortunately for the Saints, they were coming off an 11-5 record and were a Minneapolis Miracle away from going to the NFC Championship game. They felt that Davenport was the final piece they needed to form a championship team. Even though Davenport hasn’t panned out, the Saints still hosted the 2018 NFC Championship. Their roster was good enough to make up for the missed pick.
On the other hand, the Vikings have missed the playoffs two-straight seasons. Their offense has been very good, but the defense has been horrendous. The defense is far from a finished product, even with the free-agent additions of outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith, linebacker Jordan Hicks, and defensive tackle Harrison Phillips.
The secondary is thin, especially at cornerback. The Vikings brought Patrick Peterson back, but he will be 32 when the season begins. Even if Cam Dantzler can get in the new regime’s good graces, the rest of the cornerback room is suspect at best.
Would trading up and taking Sauce Gardener, the consensus No. 1 cornerback in the draft, push the Vikings defense into the top half of the league? When looking back at last year’s draft class, only 11 cornerbacks played at least 50% of their defensive snaps. The highest-drafted cornerback, Jaycee Horn, missed all but three games for the Carolina Panthers after breaking three bones in his foot.
The Denver Broncos selected Patrick Surtain II ninth overall, one pick after Horn. Although he played in 16 games, PFF gave him a 66.1 grade. That’s not a bad grade, but it was only fourth among the rookie corners who broke the 50% playing-time threshold. Ahead of him were Packers cornerback Eric Stokes (66.3), Cleveland Browns cornerback Greg Newsome II (68.1), and Las Vegas Raiders cornerback Nate Hobbs (78.4).
Despite being a fifth-round selection, Hobbs was the only rookie who ranked in PFF’s top-25 qualifying cornerbacks. Newsome II was the 26th-overall selection, and Stokes went 29th overall. That doesn’t mean that Gardener can’t be a game-changing cornerback in the NFL. But there is a tough learning curve to get over for cornerbacks transitioning from college to the NFL. Sacrificing future assets for a volatile position may not be ideal when other solid cornerbacks will likely be on the board at pick No. 12.
Outside of cornerback, no other position along the Vikings’ roster appears to be such a dire need that they should trade up for it. Depth is lacking at spots where there is above-average talent at the starting positions. With no fourth-round selection due to the Chris Herndon trade, the Vikings would be wise to secure as many picks as possible to address depth. Staying at No. 12 or trading down is the wise move with the number of question marks the team has.
