After months (years, even) of speculation, the Minnesota Vikings actually pulled it off. They traded up in the first round of the NFL Draft for a premier pass rusher in Dallas Turner. They also found a way to move up to 10th overall and select J.J. McCarthy as their franchise quarterback. For much of the draft process, the consensus forecasted that selecting McCarthy would require a trade-up that would force the Vikings to part with (at least) their 11th- and 23rd-overall picks. But Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and the powers that be inside TCO Performance Center correctly called the New York Giants’ bluff at their reported interest at quarterback with the sixth-overall pick. They stood pat as the Giants selected LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers.
It’s fair to speculate that Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos were also sniffing around once McCarthy made it past the Giants, hence Minnesota’s decision to move up one spot to select the National Champion Michigan Wolverine signal caller. The Vikings parted with their 11th-, 129th-, and 157th-overall picks while recouping the Jets’ 203rd-overall pick to move up to 10. Minnesota apparently had a noticeable discrepancy in their evaluation of McCarthy over Oregon quarterback Bo Nix. If the Vikings felt there was little difference between the two, they likely stand pat at 11, knowing they’d be content with either quarterback.
Like most quarterbacks that go through the draft process, McCarthy is quite polarizing, which should be familiar territory after this fanbase was divided over Kirk Cousins over the past six years. His detractors will point to the fact that while Michigan won a lot of games with McCarthy under center, he didn’t carry the offense. Jim Harbaugh‘s Michigan Wolverines played a throwback black-and-blue Big Ten brand of football with an overpowering offensive line and relentless rushing attack to break their opponents’ will. Make no mistake, Harbaugh largely hid and protected McCarthy, both literally and philosophically, with Michigan’s ground-and-pound approach.
McCarthy’s transition from Michigan’s offense, which ranked 122nd out of 133 Division 1A schools with 24.1 pass attempts per game last season, to Kevin O’Connell‘s scheme can’t be taken lightly. Since O’Connell took over in 2022, the Vikings have been a bottom-feeder rushing offense (ranking 27th and 29th in rushing yards) with some of the highest passing volume throughout the entire league, ranking third and fourth in pass attempts.
How will McCarthy fare now that he’ll no longer have the luxury of playing behind a truly elite running game while simultaneously being asked to make just a handful of plays each week to win football games? In O’Connell’s aerial attack, McCarthy will need to consistently make a large number of throws to all three levels of the field to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson.
Luckily for McCarthy and Skoldiers, he has the traits to be encouraged about his ability to do so. While it might not have shown up too often during his time at Michigan — particularly on vertical shots — McCarthy has unique velocity as a passer. At the Combine, McCarthy recorded a 61 MPH attempt. For context, Josh Allen holds the record with a 62 MPH ball at the 2018 Combine. This velocity allows McCarthy to be trusted to make all the throws required of a starting quarterback on Sundays. And it’s a greater necessity in the NFL, where the throwing windows are much smaller and close even faster.
Speaking of Josh Allen, plenty of folks had warranted concerns over his accuracy not too long ago. The same was true with Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts as recently as 2021. But when Allen and Hurts had All-Pro receivers (Stefon Diggs and A.J. Brown) inserted into their offensive ecosystems, they immediately turned into All-Pro quarterbacks.
It’s important to remember this because there have been concerns over McCarthy’s projected accuracy at the next level. While those worries would’ve grown louder had he landed in New England without any semblance of surrounding offensive skill-position talent, the expectation should be that Minnesota’s offensive infrastructure will make life considerably easier for him. And it’s this exact offensive infrastructure should prevent McCarthy from being Christian Ponder 2.0, as I’m sure some folks are already declaring him to be.
Does that mean McCarthy is destined to be an All-Pro quarterback because he has the benefit of throwing to Jefferson? Not necessarily. Nor does he have to be for this to be a success for the Vikings. We’ve seen the San Francisco 49ers win a lot of games with Kyle Shanahan micromanaging Brock Purdy en route to a fourth-place finish in the 2023 NFL MVP voting.
When his time comes to get behind the wheel of this offense, that’s where we should place expectations for McCarthy. He’s a quarterback who can shine while consistently making smart decisions within the confines of the scheme and plays point guard by distributing to his uber-talented skill-position players. Like Purdy, McCarthy can periodically ad-lib with his arm outside of structure and extend drives with his legs.
While McCarthy will justifiably garner the headlines, there’s an argument to be made that Dallas Turner will have a bigger and more immediate impact on the team. The former Alabama edge rusher was a consensus All-American and Co-SEC Defensive Player of the Year in 2023. Over three years in Tuscaloosa, Turner registered 22.5 sacks, including 8.5 as a true freshman and 10 in 2023. His 55 pressures were 14th-most amongst all college football edge rushers last season, and he recorded a pristine 18.8% pressure rate.
Unlike fellow first-round picks Laiatu Latu and Jared Verse, Turner is versatile enough to be an impact defender while dropping into coverage — he recorded 91 snaps in coverage last season. Of the 40 edge rushers who recorded 80-plus coverage snaps in college football last season, Turner recorded the fourth-highest coverage grade (81) by Pro Football Focus.
The Vikings jumped at the opportunity to trade up for what could potentially be a true difference-maker for Brian Flores’ defensive front. Turner was widely regarded as the top edge rusher in this year’s draft class. Flores getting into his NASCAR front with Turner, Jonathan Greenard, and Andrew Van Ginkel on obvious passing situations should make for a lethal three-headed attack. Considering Turner’s versatility in coverage, look for Flores to routinely be in his simulated pressure bag by occasionally dropping Turner while sending either Josh Metellus or Ivan Pace Jr. as the fourth pass rusher.
While some will point to the picks that Minnesota gave up (No. 23, No. 167, a 2025 third, and a 2025 fourth) to select Turner at 17th overall, it’s important to remember that Adofo-Mensah hasn’t historically shined on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft. And although Danielle Hunter was the exception to the rule, the Vikings have shown over the past decade-plus that neglecting to allocate first- or second-round picks to the defensive front is not a realistic way to build a defense. This year was the first time the Vikings have selected an edge rusher in the first round since Erasmus James in 2005.
Anytime you can get a potential franchise quarterback in the top-10 and arguably the best pass rusher of the class in the same draft without giving up any future first-round picks, it should be widely celebrated. After two kinda-sorta duds out of Adofo-Mensah in the draft, the third-year general manager provided an immediate jolt of optimism on the opening night of the 2024 NFL Draft.
