With the NFC North already sealed, the Minnesota Vikings held on to the No. 2 seed in the NFC with their latest installment of heart-wrenching buzzer-beater victories, beating the New York Giants 27-24 in Week 16 at U.S. Bank Stadium. Greg Joseph‘s 61-yard field goal at the end of regulation was the longest field goal in franchise history, and Justin Jefferson broke Randy Moss‘ franchise record for receiving yards in a single season. Although the defense didn’t get the clutch stop that Skoldiers have grown accustomed to this season, it was Matt Daniels‘ special teams unit that shined brightest in money time. Backup safety Josh Metellus blocked a punt with four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, and Jefferson capped off the ensuing offensive drive with a 17-yard touchdown catch on third-and-six to put the Vikings up 24-16 with three minutes left on the clock.

The Whiteout was an overwhelming success. Vikings fans resembled a Guilty Remnant convention from HBO’s The Leftovers. And with the anxiety-inducing nature of our beloved Purple and Gold, I’m guessing folks inside U.S. Bank Stadium were wishing they could chain smoke as much as the Remnant did in the TV show.

But as we near the conclusion of the regular season and look ahead to the postseason, it’s time to revisit a popular talker among Vikings fans. On Christmas Eve, Kirk Cousins tied Matthew Stafford‘s all-time NFL record for most game-winning drives with eight. Granted, it feels a bit odd that both fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives are classified as statistics for quarterbacks. After all, it’s not like these guys are playing golf or tennis out there. But that’s another topic for a different day.

Seemingly from the moment he joined the Vikings in 2018, the question of How many quarterbacks would you take over Cousins? has been asked by everybody and their unborn children. Whether it’s his contract or the results of the mediocre football teams he’s played on throughout his NFL career, the Vikings and NFL fans at large just can’t help themselves. But since we know that the NFL — especially the postseason — comes down to which quarterback can get you to the finish line, it’s a fair question to ask.

At this point of the season, we have a pretty good understanding of which teams and their respective quarterbacks will be punching their tickets to the dance with hopes of cutting a rug in the month of January and into February. In the spirit of the 2022 Vikings and their Situational Mastery, we’re going to take a look at how Cousins compares to the other playoff quarterbacks in the following critical situations:

• Third Downs
• Fourth Quarters
• Red Zone
• Under Pressure

I’ll provide both the passer ratings and pass attempts for each situation, simply because passer rating can sometimes be masked by a low-volume passer who doesn’t have a lot on his plate for his respective offense. Think of it like a three-point shooter in basketball. Sure, someone can approach 40% from deep, but the impact doesn’t mean as much if they’re only attempting three or four shots from beyond the arc per game. After we look each quarterback’s production in these situations, I’ll demonstrate which quarterbacks appear to be peaking at the right time with their production over the past five games. Like a goalkeeper in hockey, more often than not, the NFL postseason comes down to which quarterback is getting hot at the opportune time. (Shout out to Joe Flacco, yo.)

I’m just letting you know that I’m not here today to tell you which quarterbacks should be taken over Cousins. But instead of relying on folks talking out of their backside, I’ll simply lay out the data from the 2022 season and allow you to formulate your opinions.

Third Downs (statistics provided by Pro Football Reference)

1. Tua Tagovailoa — 130.7 passer rating — 8.2 third-down pass attempts per game
2. Geno Smith — 112.5 passer rating — 7.6 third-down pass attempts per game
3. Joe Burrow — 111.6 passer rating — 9.1 third-down pass attempts per game
4. Patrick Mahomes — 111.1 passer rating — 8.9 third-down pass attempts per game
5. Jalen Hurts — 101.3 passer rating — 5.9 third-down pass attempts per game
6. Kirk Cousins — 100.5 passer rating — 10.3 third-down pass attempts per game
7. Trevor Lawrence — 96.1 passer rating — 8.8 third-down pass attempts per game
8. Josh Allen — 95.1 passer rating — 7.5 third-down pass attempts per game
9. Dak Prescott — 93.0 passer rating — 8.1 third-down pass attempts per game
10. Justin Herbert — 84.2 passer rating — 10.9 third-down pass attempts per game
11. Aaron Rodgers — 80.5 passer rating — 7.9 third-down pass attempts per game
12. Tom Brady — 79.3 passer rating — 11.1 third-down pass attempts per game
13. Lamar Jackson — 71.7 passer rating — 6.8 third-down pass attempts per game

It’s important that we discuss rushing prowess of these quarterbacks. No one will be mistaking Cousins’ mobility for that of Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson. And those quarterbacks certainly bring an invaluable skillset with their legs. But as Kyle Shanahan said when he asked about Cousins and quarterback play as a whole at a March 2021 press conference:

You want an elite player. And, of course, if you can get a guy who’s elite with his arm and can play in the pocket and do everything and still run around and make plays and make off-schedule plays…that’s what you’ve seen with Mahomes. Everybody wants something like that. But there is a risk to everything. …But if you can’t sit in that pocket and play the position, eventually, it’s not going to matter.

Having the ability to run is important. But it still pales in comparison to someone who can consistently win from the pocket. The track record of Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks demonstrates that. Plus, I’m still old enough to remember Cousins scrambling for a 17-yard touchdown on third-and-four in Week 8 against the Arizona Cardinals.

Red Zone (statistics provided by Pro Football Reference)

1. Tua Tagovailoa — 112.2 passer rating — 3.5 red-zone pass attempts per game
2. Tom Brady — 105.2 passer rating — 5.9 red-zone pass attempts per game
3. Joe Burrow — 102.8 passer rating — 5.5 red-zone pass attempts per game
4. Dak Prescott — 101.6 passer rating — 4.3 red-zone pass attempts per game
5. Geno Smith — 100.8 passer rating — 4.1 red-zone pass attempts per game
6. Jalen Hurts — 100.0 passer rating — 3.0 red-zone pass attempts per game
7. Kirk Cousins — 99.1 passer rating — 6.0 red-zone pass attempts per game
8. Patrick Mahomes — 96.9 passer rating — 7.0 red-zone pass attempts per game
9. Justin Herbert — 96.4 passer rating — 5.8 red-zone pass attempts per game
10. Aaron Rodgers — 95.2 passer rating — 4.7 red-zone pass attempts per game
11. Lamar Jackson — 87.6 passer rating — 4.7 red-zone pass attempts per game
12. Josh Allen — 85.1 passer rating — 5.1 red-zone pass attempts per game
13. Trevor Lawrence — 80.1 passer rating — 4.9 red-zone pass attempts per game

You’ll notice that only Patrick Mahomes is averaging more red-zone pass attempts per game than Cousins this season. And while someone like Hurts has performed at a slightly more efficient rate than Cousins in the red zone, it needs to be taken with a grain of salt due to the drastically low volume. The same can be said about Tua.

Under Pressure (statistics provided by Pro Football Focus)

1. Josh Allen — 94.1 passer rating — 9.7 pass attempts under pressure per game
2. Tua Tagovailoa — 91.6 passer rating — 6.7 pass attempts under pressure per game
3. Joe Burrow — 84.3 passer rating — 7.1 pass attempts under pressure per game
4. Geno Smith — 83.7 passer rating — 9.6 pass attempts under pressure per game
5. Kirk Cousins — 83.1 passer rating — 12.5 pass attempts under pressure per game
6. Jalen Hurts — 72.6 passer rating — 6.6 pass attempts under pressure per game
7. Patrick Mahomes — 72.5 passer rating — 11.7 pass attempts under pressure per game
8. Dak Prescott — 71.2 passer rating — 9.2 pass attempts under pressure per game
9. Justin Herbert — 69.7 passer rating — 13.5 pass attempts under pressure per game
10. Trevor Lawrence — 66.8 passer rating — 8.7 pass attempts under pressure per game
11. Aaron Rodgers — 65.2 passer rating — 6.9 pass attempts under pressure per game (stop giggling, Gronk)
12. Lamar Jackson — 60.7 passer rating — 7.3 pass attempts under pressure per game
13. Tom Brady — 44.2 passer rating — 7.4 pass attempts under pressure per game

Speaking of Kyle Shanahan’s reference to Mahomes and his ability to make off-schedule plays. Cousins has been considerably more efficient and while being asked to overcome more frequent circumstances with pressure in the pocket. Cousins has been dogged for much of his career about the narrative of Needing Everything Around Him To Be Perfect In Order To Succeed. I wrote about it a few weeks back. And Cousins being near the top of the league in production under pressure may have put that narrative to rest once and for all.

Fourth Quarter (statistics provided by Pro Football Reference)

1. Joe Burrow — 117.1 passer rating — 8.5 fourth-quarter pass attempts per game
2. Geno Smith — 111.5 passer rating — 8.7 fourth-quarter pass attempts per game
3. Dak Prescott — 110.2 passer rating — 6.2 fourth-quarter pass attempts per game
4. Jalen Hurts — 109.2 passer rating — 3.9 fourth-quarter pass attempts per game
5. Kirk Cousins — 104.8 passer rating — 11.2 fourth-quarter pass attempts per game
6. Tua Tagovailoa — 96.2 passer rating — 6.3 fourth-quarter pass attempts per game
7. Tom Brady — 94.3 passer rating — 13.7 fourth-quarter pass attempts per game
8. Trevor Lawrence — 88.9 passer rating — 9.3 fourth-quarter pass attempts per game
9. Justin Herbert — 84.7 passer rating — 12.1 fourth-quarter pass attempts per game
10. Aaron Rodgers — 83.0 passer rating — 9.8 fourth-quarter pass attempts per game
11. Patrick Mahomes — 82.2 passer rating — 7.3 fourth-quarter pass attempts per game
12. Josh Allen — 80.0 passer rating — 7.3 fourth-quarter pass attempts per game
13. Lamar Jackson — 72.5 passer rating — 5.3 fourth-quarter pass attempts per game

Oddly enough, Mahomes and Allen have struggled mightily with their efficiency when Winning Time in the fourth quarter presents itself. Vikings fans had a front-row ticket to Allen’s implosion in Week 10, and it’s been more of the same for him throughout the year in the final quarter. And Mahomes’ shortcomings down the stretch of games isn’t necessarily new for him either. Remember last season’s AFC Championship game against the Cincinnati Bengals? Also, it’s quite apparent how little trust the Philadelphia Eagles have in Hurts in big spots in fourth quarters. His 3.9 fourth-quarter pass attempts per game is a very distant last place amongst these 13 quarterbacks.

Past Five Games (statistics provided by Pro Football Reference)

1. Trevor Lawrence — 108.1 passer rating — 36.6 pass attempts per game
2. Kirk Cousins — 106.7 passer rating — 43 pass attempts per game
3. Jalen Hurts — 101.4 passer rating — 32 pass attempts per game
4. Joe Burrow — 101.3 passer rating — 38.4 pass attempts per game
5. Patrick Mahomes — 100.1 passer rating — 36 pass attempts per game
6. Dak Prescott — 98.1 passer rating — 32.8 pass attempts per game
7. Geno Smith — 94.6 passer rating — 39.2 pass attempts per game
8. Josh Allen — 94.3 passer rating — 33.6 pass attempts per game
9. Justin Herbert — 92.0 passer rating — 43.6 pass attempts per game
10. Lamar Jackson — 89.5 passer rating — 25.8 pass attempts per game (Hasn’t played since Week 13)
11. Aaron Rodgers — 87.5 passer rating — 30.8 pass attempts per game
12. Tua Tagovailoa — 84.4 passer rating — 30.4 pass attempts per game
13. Tom Brady — 80.9 passer rating — 48.8 pass attempts per game

Is Cousins channeling his inner 2012-Flacco by getting hot at the quintessential time?

I promised I wasn’t going to tell you which quarterbacks should be taken over Cousins right now — and I’m a man of my word. The only thing I’ll add is this: It’s more than okay to change our collective stance on Cousins. Sometimes the information changes, and it requires us to adapt. If you’re still struggling with pivoting on where you stand with Minnesota’s most polarizing athlete, allow me to help. I was dead wrong when I wrote earlier in the year that the Vikings and Kevin O’Connell were better off treating Cousins as a souped-up version of Jared Goff instead of unleashing him in the Matthew Stafford version of O’Connell’s offense with the Los Angeles Rams. Over the last-half of the regular season, the Vikings have essentially said to hell with their running game by living and dying with their passing game for Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson.

And Cousins has delivered in a big way.

Rob Searles

Searles is a born and raised Minnesotan who currently resides in Denver. He was the Pass Game Coordinator for Simley and Mounds View HS and previously wrote for the Daily Thunder, FantasyPros, and Bleacher Report.

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