In a couple of weeks, Kevin O’Connell will report for his first day as head coach of the Minnesota Vikings. Unpacking his “World’s Best Boss” mug and his “I Know Sean McVay” plaque, there’s a knock on his office door.
“I guess they’ll let anyone in here!” Kirk Cousins exclaimed.
After the two exchange pleasantries, they start talking about the future. Cousins recalls his time working with O’Connell in Washington. He calls it the good ol’ days and can’t wait to get to work. But as Cousins cackles that they changed their name to the Commanders, another figure creeps into the doorway.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah peers into the room and gives O’Connell a nod. O’Connell nods back before giving Cousins the truth.
“Kirk, we need to talk.”
After spending the past four years with a head coach obsessed with defense, bringing in O’Connell seems like a plan to “unleash Kirk.” But O’Connell knows Cousins better than any of the other candidates that interviewed for this job. He knows what Cousins can do at his best. More importantly, he knows what Cousins is like at his worst.
The key example is the 2017 season in Washington. O’Connell came over after being a special projects manager with the San Francisco 49ers. The opportunity to work with a quarterback who commanded (no pun intended) back-to-back franchise tags seemed like an excellent way to propel his career.
At first, it seemed to be a perfect match. O’Connell lauded Cousins during minicamp, praising his athletic ability and understanding of the offense.
“I think after the last two years of taking almost every snap, it seems like he really understands what we are trying to get accomplished with each individual play,” O’Connell said. “Both in the pass game and in the run game, and he’s doing a tremendous job of controlling things and getting us into the right plays, getting us into the right protections, and then when it’s time to make a decision and make a throw, he’s doing a really good job being accurate with the football and moving the team on a daily basis.”
But as the purple faithful knows, Cousins’ athletic ability has never been in question. He’s clouded his career with conservative decision-making. His play has deteriorated under pressure. With a roster that was imploding, it was a recipe for disaster.
With 27 touchdowns and 4,093 yards passing in 2017, Cousins put up the type of season some fans defend on Twitter. But he also posted career lows as a starter in completion percentage (64.3%), quarterback rating (93.9), and QBR (56.0). Cousins also finished 29th in average depth of target (8.2 yards) and 20th in Pro Football Focus grade.
Cousins had a poor relationship with Pierre Garçon and DeSean Jackson, and Washington missed the playoffs. He signed with Minnesota the following offseason.
O’Connell has lived the Cousins experience before. He knows how good Cousins can be when he’s at his best. He also knows that he can torpedo a team at his worst. That’s fine if you’re a quarterback coach. But it presents a tough decision now that he’s running the team.
O’Connell could buy into Cousins’ stability at the quarterback position and offer him an extension. A three-year deal would cause many Vikings fans to groan, but there are no guarantees that Cousins would be around for the entirety of the deal.
An excellent example of this is what happened with the San Francisco 49ers. When the Niners traded up for Trey Lance in the draft, many saw it as the end for Jimmy Garoppolo. But instead of dealing Garoppolo when everyone expected them to, they held on for one more season.
Garoppolo didn’t put up monster stats, but he led the 49ers to the NFC Championship game. His teammates defended him religiously. Now San Francisco is poised to get a bigger haul in a bullish quarterback market.
The same thing could happen with Cousins. Cousins’ trade value will go up if he signs an extension because of his lower cap number. If O’Connell coaxes a monster season out of Cousins, his value will increase that much more.
That would put the Vikings on track to cash in during the 2023 offseason. If a team is willing to give up significant assets to acquire Cousins, Minnesota could take the deal to pave the way for Kellen Mond or a quarterback selected in this year’s draft.
If the Vikings don’t like Mond or this year’s class, they could use the assets in the 2023 draft. And if those moves combine with some other trades, Minnesota could have several picks to move up in the draft and have a chance to select Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud.
That scenario would give the Vikings the coveted rookie window. They could build their roster and become a contender with a cheaper, more effective quarterback. Minnesota doesn’t have to burn it to the ground to get a great quarterback.
