I went into Thursday night of the NFL Draft as a ball of anxiety, stressed about what scenarios would unfold and what it would mean for the future of this franchise.
Like many Minnesota Vikings fans, I was convinced the team would be mortgaging multiple first-round picks for their new quarterback. I was comfortable paying the price to do so. Instead, their patience was rewarded. It cost Minnesota only a modest jump with the New York Jets, swapping a fourth- and fifth-round pick in return for a seventh. That’s not nothing, but it was probably necessary to stave off any last-minute attempts by teams like the Denver Broncos or Las Vegas Raiders to swipe J.J. McCarthy. Sean Peyton can crack all the jokes he wants in his press conference; he’s still the one who drafted Bo Nix at No. 12. Big yikes.
Contrary to expectations, Minnesota didn’t mortgage the future for their quarterback. Instead, they mortgaged the future for their next franchise pass rusher.
The Vikings primed themselves for Thursday night by trading two second-round picks (this year and next year) for the Houston Texans’ first pick this year (No. 23), plus a swap of sixth- and seventh-round picks. That seemed like a fair price at the time for a team looking to swing into the top five, even if all the trade charts didn’t love the value.
Then they sat back and watched as an unprecedented 14-straight offensive players came off the board to start the draft. There was a run on receivers, quarterbacks, and offensive linemen, pushing premier defensive talent down the board. With the pass-rush-needy Cincinnati Bengals (No. 18) and Los Angeles Rams (No. 19) possibly swiping the two remaining premier edge rushers in Dallas Turner or Jared Verse, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah opted instead to take a deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars at pick 17 to get ahead of the run.
He paid a hefty price to do so. The Vikings only flipped a sixth-rounder this year, but they paid heavy capital next year, moving a third- and fourth-rounder. According to most trade charts, that’s a modest overpay in and of itself. Couple that with what Minnesota traded just to get to No. 23 in the first place, and things get wild.
They basically spent their second-round pick this season, the entirety of Day 2, their most valuable pick on Day 3 next season, and a few chump-change late-round picks — all for Dallas Turner. So, yeah, the front office was pretty committed to getting their quarterback of the future and a cornerstone edge rusher.
The Vikings added some really promising talent in this draft on Day 3. Khyree Jackson out of Oregon is a long, physical corner who could add some really nice competition to the DB room. Walter Rouse is a powerful tackle prospect with a lot of experience at Oklahoma, and Michael Jurgens is a scrappy interior lineman who played well against many of the highly touted defensive linemen in the ACC. Neither should be seen as true competition to start but could develop as nice depth pieces.
However, even as late as the fifth round this year, there were several quality players on the board at clear positions of need for this team in 2024. There were still plenty of interesting options at receiver, guard, and interior defensive line sitting in the fifth round. I couldn’t help but lament Minnesota’s inability to capitalize on the value falling down the board.
That’s the cost of doing business, but it is indeed costly. And as much FOMO as I felt on Saturday, imagine how next year will feel with only three picks remaining in the entire class.
It’s also important to remember that the offseason isn’t over, and this team could make a few late additions after the draft, which skirt the mercurial compensatory pick formula. Guys like Tyler Boyd, Calais Campbell, or Dalton Risner could make a lot of sense to bolster some of the post-draft holes on this team with the remaining cap space available. However, these options are older, more expensive, and have limited upside at this stage in their careers.
Ultimately, Turner and McCarthy will define this draft. If McCarthy is the quarterback of the future and Turner is a bonafide badass, then dweebs like me crying over hypothetical value and the chance to draft a fifth-round defensive tackle will get over it. It’s also worth noting there were many scenarios where Minnesota paid a much higher cost at the top of this draft at an even more inflated value. Still, that doesn’t change the cost they paid, which was substantial.
Suppose Minnesota’s lack of defensive depth, talent at WR3, or inadequacy at guard hurts them this season. In that case, all eyes will be on the Vikings’ first-round picks to perform at a level that merits that opportunity cost. That’s a lot of pressure and expectations on these two players heading into their rookie season.
