One of the most prominent themes throughout the Minnesota Vikings’ offseason was that change was in the air. With a new regime in charge, the Vikings believed that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell could get out of this team what the old regime couldn’t and lead them back into contention.
The rest of the team bought into this narrative. When the Vikings fired Mike Zimmer, Brian O’Neill lamented he never said hello in the hallway. Eric Kendricks labeled it as a “fear-based culture.” A former coordinator referred to Zimmer as Satan, according to Ty Dunne. Even Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen commented on the calm nature of their new head coach.
All of these things could help the Vikings in 2022. But, ultimately, they are going to miss Zimmer.
On the surface, that seems preposterous. The Vikings have spent all season taking veiled shots at their former coach. Rick Spielman has retreated into a bunker to throw shade on Tik Tok and Instagram. But even if Zimmer was the elderly curmudgeon holding the Vikings back, he did enough to ensure they weren’t a complete mess.
It starts with his relationship with Cousins. When John DeFilippo arrived with Cousins in 2018, he installed a system that put everything on the shoulders of the quarterback, which plays into Cousins’ weaknesses.
The 2018 season began well statistically for Cousins, but the Vikings limped to a 1-2-1 start. Minnesota eventually found its footing, but Zimmer believed that Cousins and the team performed better with a run-oriented scheme. He fired DeFilippo in 2018 and replaced him with Kevin Stefanski, the man he originally wanted to hire.
The offensive coordinator position continued to be a revolving door over the next three seasons, but Stefanski installed a system that brought out the best in Cousins. From 2019 to 2021, Cousins ranked fourth in QB rating (105.0), fifth in touchdowns (94) and yards per attempt (7.9), and sixth in passing yards (12,089).
Zimmer should have tried harder to forge a better relationship with his quarterback, but it wasn’t like he put him in a position to fail. If anything, he put his players in a position to succeed, which translated to the defense. Zimmer found ways to use players to their strengths. D.J. Wonnum was ridiculed after being compared to Danielle Hunter, but Zimmer found a way to make him work as a rotational pass rusher.
When the Vikings forced Wonnum into the starting lineup, Zimmer schemed up wide-open opportunities to put him in a position to clean up plays. The result was a career-high eight sacks, even though Wonnum ranked 105th among qualifying edge rushers with a 9.1% win rate on pass-rushing snaps.
The same could be said for the variety of young players that Zimmer cultivated. Harrison Smith, Xavier Rhodes, and Kendricks developed into elite players under Zimmer’s watch. However, people don’t seem to remember that because Zimmer wasn’t making pancakes every Monday morning.
Third down may be the most significant area where the Vikings will feel Zimmer’s loss. The Vikings stopped opposing offenses cold when they needed to move the sticks, leading the league with a 35.9% conversion rate since Zimmer’s arrival in 2014. For comparison, new Vikings defensive coordinator Ed Donatell saw his defense allow a 40.9% conversion rate during his three seasons as defensive coordinator with the Denver Broncos (2019-22). Assistant head coach Mike Pettine also had a higher conversion rate, allowing a 38.2% clip in his three seasons as defensive coordinator with the Green Bay Packers (2018-20).
It doesn’t seem like a huge jump, but it makes a major difference in the landscape of the game. The Los Angeles Rams ranked seventh in the NFL with a 43.9% conversion rate on their way to the Super Bowl last season. In 2020, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranked 11th with a 43.5% conversion rate, and the Kansas City Chiefs ranked first in the NFL at 47.6% in 2019. No Super Bowl champion has been under 40% since the Broncos posted a 35.3% conversion rate in 2015.
Even if O’Connell constructs the second coming of the 1998 Vikings, it won’t matter if the defense can’t get the ball in their hands. Aaron Rodgers leading long drives should be a nightmare scenario for Vikings fans. It could have them longing for the days of Garrett Bradbury getting mauled by Kenny Clark on every TV screen in TCO Performance Center.
I’m not saying that the Vikings should have retained Zimmer. After eight seasons in Minnesota, it’s understandable that players wanted a change. O’Connell’s bedside manner has already created a different atmosphere that should benefit the team. But to cast Zimmer as the antichrist is inaccurate. Remember this if the season doesn’t go well and the Vikings find themselves starting over again.
