Around this time last year, one of the many narratives surrounding Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins was that he was an empty box-score stuffer who used garbage time to help pad his stats. Unfortunately for this narrative, the Vikings only found themselves in garbage time once this past season. It was the only game that Cousins missed — Week 17 at Green Bay.
Not to be outdone in their never-ending pursuit to finally prove that the quarterback is a fraud, pessimistic Skoldiers have pivoted to a new narrative following the 2021 season. And it sounds a little something like this:
“Why does Cousins keep checking it down on third-and-long?!?!?!”
To be perfectly clear: Cousins certainly has a propensity of throwing the ball in front of the sticks on third down, especially in third-and-long situations. And while that justifiably irks Vikings fans, a lot of these frustrating occurrences can be attributed to Minnesota’s shortcomings up front in pass protection. According to Pro Football Focus, the Vikings ranked 26th in pass protection this past season, with a grade of 55.0. For comparison’s sake, the Cincinnati Bengals’ offensive line that was exposed throughout the postseason ranked 29th with a 53.1 grade.
Not exactly the kind of company that Minnesota’s offensive line wants to be in.
Watch the play below from Week 4 against Cleveland. Facing a third-and-12, Jadeveon Clowney is isolated against right guard Oli Udoh.
Naturally, Kirky doubters’ response to this information typically sounds like, “See! Other quarterbacks like Joe Burrow can win with a bad offensive line!“
Let’s not forget that the Bengals were dominant at shutting down their opponent’s running game this season, as we witnessed in the Super Bowl against the Los Angeles Rams. They ranked fifth in the NFL against the run. Meanwhile, the Vikings ranked 26th at defending the run in 2021. In the Super Bowl, the Bengals held the Rams to 43 rushing yards. Conversely, the Rams gashed Minnesota’s defense for 159 rushing yards inside U.S. Bank Stadium back in Week 16.
And as a reminder, it’s nearly impossible for high-level quarterbacks to overcome a defense that’s been as bad as Minnesota’s over the past two seasons.
Back to the topic at hand. Today we’re going to take a look at how quarterbacks throughout the NFL fared in third-and-10-plus situations this past season. That way we’ll be able to find out if the data matches this newfound narrative about Cousins.
But before we get to Cousins, let’s take a look at how arguably the two best quarterbacks of this past season — Tom Brady and 2021 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers — did when they were presented with third-and-10-plus.
Statistics are provided by Pro Football Reference.
Tom Brady
- 38 attempts (2 rushing attempts)
- 0 TDs
- 3 INTs
- 6 First Downs
- 48.8 passer rating
- 3.03 adjusted yards/attempt
Aaron Rodgers
- 38 attempts (2 rushing attempts)
- 1 TD
- 0 INTs
- 9 First Downs (1 rushing)
- 87.7 passer rating
- 8.33 AY/A
It should go without saying at this point, but the numbers from Brady and Rodgers should paint the proper picture of just how difficult it is to be effective as a quarterback whenever you’re faced with third-and-10-plus.
To further illustrate the low probability of success on third-and-10-plus, let’s take a look at four other quarterbacks — all of whom are former Pro Bowl, All-Pro, and/or MVP signal callers.
Patrick Mahomes
- 45 attempts (3 rushing attempts)
- 0 TDs
- 1 INT
- 12 First Downs (2 rushing)
- 72.1 passer rating
- 7.17 AY/A
Lamar Jackson
- 33 attempts (4 rushing attempts)
- 2 TDs
- 2 INTs
- 8 First Downs
- 83.3 passer rating
- 5.34 AY/A
Russell Wilson
- 30 attempts (2 rushing attempts)
- 1 TDs
- 1 INT
- 8 First Downs
- 68.8 passer rating
- 7.25 AY/A
Dak Prescott
- 37 attempts (5 rushing attempts)
- 0 TDs
- 0 INTs
- 4 First Downs
- 68.1 passer rating
- 5.84 AY/A
In total, these six quarterbacks, who are widely regarded as some of the best in the NFL, combined for 221 different third-and-10-plus situations. And of those 221 occurrences, they combined for 47 first downs, which equates to a 21.3% conversion rate.
Next let’s take a look at eight different quarterbacks who were league-leaders this past season when facing third-and-10-plus.
Kyler Murray
- 44 attempts (6 rushing attempts)
- 4 TDs
- 1 INT
- 14 First Downs (1 rushing)
- 129.6 passer rating
- 11.0 AY/A
Derek Carr
- 44 attempts (4 rushing attempts)
- 1 TD
- 0 INTs
- 13 First Downs (1 rushing)
- 122.9 passer rating
- 13.45 AY/A
Matt Ryan
- 46 attempts (1 rushing attempt)
- 2 TDs
- 0 INTs
- 16 First Downs
- 115.2 passer rating
- 9.82 AY/A
Jimmy Garoppolo
- 37 attempts
- 1 TD
- 1 INT
- 14 First Downs
- 115.0 passer rating
- 11.92 AY/A
Justin Herbert
- 48 attempts (5 rushing attempts)
- 3 TDs
- 3 INTs
- 18 First Downs (1 rushing)
- 91.9 passer rating
- 9.58 AY/A
Josh Allen
- 55 attempts (4 rushing attempts)
- 6 TDs
- 2 INTs
- 18 First Downs (1 rushing)
- 94.2 passer rating
- 7.41 AY/A
Matthew Stafford
- 36 attempts
- 1 TD
- 3 INTs
- 16 First Downs
- 81.9 passer rating
- 11.53 AY/A
Joe Burrow
- 47 attempts (2 rushing attempts)
- 0 TDs
- 2 INTs
- 12 First Downs
- 92.1 passer rating
- 8.56 AY/A
In total, these eight quarterbacks combined for 357 third-and-10-plus situations and 121 first downs, equating to a 33.9% conversion rate.
And last, but certainly not least, let’s take a look at Minnesota’s polarizing quarterback this past season when he was faced with third-and-10-plus.
Kirk Cousins
- 53 attempts
- 4 TDs
- 0 INTs
- 15 First Downs
- 127.7 passer rating
- 10.0 AY/A
While the 28.3% conversion rate is below the combined average of the eight aforementioned league leaders in these situations, Cousins proved to be among the elites when faced with third-and-10-plus. I understand this might be triggering for most Skoliders — but Cousins had the second-highest passer rating in the NFL when faced with third-and-10-plus, trailing only Murray. His four touchdowns in these situations were tied with Murray for second-most in the league, trailing Allen’s six scores. Cousins’ 10.0 adjusted yards per attempt on third-and-10-plus was sixth-highest in the league this past season.
While the narrative circulating around Skoldierville these days says that Cousins is Captain Checkdown on third-and-long, the reality (and numbers) prove that he’s one of the most effective quarterbacks on the planet in these dire situations.
Throw in Kevin O’Connell‘s offensive scheme — the same system that helped Stafford convert a league-high 44.4% of his third-and-10-plus attempts — and if Minnesota’s offensive line can improve on their No. 26 ranking in pass protection (according to PFF) next season, it’s more than fair to expect Cousins to be even better whenever the Vikings are faced with third-and-10-plus.
