The Minnesota Vikings have a long lineage of great running backs. That tradition continued when they drafted Dalvin Cook.
An explosive talent out of Florida State, Cook has become a fixture of the offense. But his days in Minnesota could be numbered with Kevin O’Connell‘s arrival.
In a league where teams are going to the local community college to find their running backs, Cook gives the Vikings an advantage. Only Derrick Henry has more rushing yards (4,504) and touchdowns (43) over the past three seasons than Cook (3,851 yards, 35 TD).
When Cook was on his rookie deal, that production could be viewed as a premium. But after signing him to a 5-year, $63 million contract in September 2020, the Vikings committed the NFL’s version of feeding a gremlin after midnight.
The league has shifted from highly paid bell cows to cost-effective committees. Running back is one of the most physically demanding on the field. Running backs tend to wear down when those hits accumulate, and their production tails off.
That is evident in the past three seasons. Of the 30 players that finished in the top 10 in rushing yards, half of them made $2 million or less. While the average cost has jumped from $2 million in 2019 to $4.1 million in 2021, Henry is the only running back with a cap hit over $10 million to crack the top 10.
These teams have also benefitted in terms of wins and losses. Of the 29 running backs listed, 14 of their teams made the playoffs. The average cost for those running backs was $4.12 million.
The Los Angeles Rams were one of the teams that experienced this trend. After signing Todd Gurley to a 4-year, $60 million contract extension in July 2018, his production began to decline. In 2019, Gurley ran for only 857 yards and owned a $5 million cap hit. Instead of betting on a bounce-back, the Rams released Gurley and ate $20.15 million in dead money.
But in the two seasons without Gurley, Cam Akers and Sony Michel have led their backfield. The Rams paid Akers $1.1 million when he led them in rushing in 2020. They paid Michel $1.7 million this past season.
O’Connell got a front-row seat to this change in LA, which could spell trouble for Cook. Not only is he due an $11.8 million cap hit for next season, but his play showed signs of decline last season.
In addition to posting the lowest PFF grade of his career, Cook became a more volatile rusher. Football Outsiders logs defense-adjusted yards above replacement, which takes into account how many yards a replacement running back would get adjusted toward the defense he’s facing. Cook registered minus-4 yards below a replacement-level player, which ranked 39th among qualifying running backs.
Cook also had more runs for no gain or a loss of yards last season. His overall success rate, which takes into account down and distance, was just 47%. That number ranked just 37th among qualifying running backs.
Some of this could have been the Vikings’ negligence of their offensive line. But entering his age-27 season, there’s a better chance that Cook is starting to wear down. That makes the question not if the Vikings will part ways with him but when.
If the Vikings were to trade or release Cook this offseason, it would force Minnesota to eat $9.3 million in dead money. While that number would cause Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to grit his teeth, he would also have several options to replace him.
Internally, the Vikings could turn to Alexander Mattison. While Mattison has several flaws to his game, he has shown an ability to carry the load at a cost-effective price.
Minnesota could also bet on Kene Nwangwu’s development. While using Nwangwu as a traditional running back didn’t work last season, he could be a complementary piece in O’Connell’s offense.
If the Vikings relied on a backfield of Mattison and Nwangwu, it would cost $9.7 million less than what they are scheduled to pay Cook.
The Vikings could also replace Cook with a cheaper option in free agency. PFF graded Cordarrelle Patterson, Leonard Fournette, and James Conner higher than Cook last season. According to their free-agent rankings, each player would cost an estimated $4 million, which would allow Minnesota to save more money in their backfield.
They could also turn to the draft, where the Vikings could get a controllable asset at a lower price. The 2022 draft class doesn’t have a game-changer at the position. But Bijan Robinson (Texas), Jahmyr Gibbs (Alabama), or Tank Bigsby (Auburn) are all highly-touted prospects expected to be in the 2023 draft.
There is also something to be said for landing a late-round gem. In the past three seasons, at least one running back drafted in the fifth round or later has cracked the top 10 in rushing yards.
With the Vikings leaning toward keeping Kirk Cousins for next season, they’ll have to find ways to trim salary elsewhere. It seems crazy to get rid of a player of Cook’s caliber. But the truth is, he’s one of the most replaceable players on the team.
