Forget that the Minnesota Vikings were playing the Detroit Lions on Sunday. Pretend that they weren’t playing in Ford Field. Instead, look at the raw numbers. The Vikings were 2.5-point underdogs. They had given up 400 yards in four-straight games. Their opponent had three established receivers and was getting a first-round rookie back from injury. Minnesota was also missing Harrison Smith, Christian Darrisaw, and Garrett Bradbury. They were also facing a team that won four of their last five games and nearly won in Minnesota earlier in the year.
Add that all up, and it’s understandable why the Vikings felt like underdogs on Sunday. They were. But they played like they were trying to steal a game from a contending team rather than embracing the standard challenges of a road game. Vegas usually favors home teams by three points, but Minnesota was 4-1 away from U.S. Bank Stadium before losing in Detroit. However, they are a 10-win team that played a five-win team like their records were reversed.
Three failed plays are evidence of Minnesota’s attempted subterfuge:
- On the Vikings’ first drive, Kevin O’Connell ran Dalvin Cook up the middle out of shotgun on fourth-and-one from their own 46-yard line.
- He had Cook throw a pass to Johnny Mundt on first-and-goal from the three-yard line with a little over a minute left in the first half. Cook stalled, waiting for Mundt to get open, and Isaiah Buggs stripped him. Kerby Joseph recovered the ball, and the Vikings lost their opportunity to double-dip going into the second half.
- And O’Connell went for two down 21-13 with a little over two minutes left in the third quarter.
We can quibble over whether O’Connell should have called for an onside kick down 31-23 with 2:50 left in the game. But the Vikings had put themselves in a challenging spot. It’s hard to believe that Ed Donatell’s defense, which gave up a franchise-record 400-plus yards in five-straight games, would give the offense the ball back with enough time to work.
The defense wasn’t solely to blame, though. Minnesota special teams coordinator Matt Daniels has been stellar all year. However, Kalif Raymond returned a punt for 35 yards in the second quarter, and the Lions converted a fake punt early in the third quarter.
Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took advantage of Detroit’s stellar special teams play. Jalen Nailor pushed Raymond out of bounds at Minnesota’s 48-yard line. Johnson dialed up a pass to Jameson Williams on the next play, and he scored his first touchdown of the year. The fake punt was part of a 12-play, 76-yard touchdown drive that put the Lions up 21-7. It also chewed up most of the third quarter.
O’Connell wasn’t wrong to be aggressive on the road. There’s nothing wrong with going for it on fourth-and-one from midfield. Rather, that should be encouraged. But it doesn’t make much sense to hand Cook the ball five yards behind the line of scrimmage and ask him to convert the first down. O’Connell should have either had Cousins run the play from under center or allowed him to throw the ball, given how well his receivers were playing.
Similarly, O’Connell has typically excelled in the red zone because of his creative playcalling. But it doesn’t make a lot of sense to have Cook, a running back, throw the ball to the backup tight end. Instead, he should have played it straight up. See if Cook, who already had a rushing touchdown, can squeeze into the end zone from three yards out. Or dial up a play for Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, or Adam Thielen. Instead, O’Connell got cute, and it burned the Vikings.
Finally, going for two has become en-vogue among the analytics crowd, especially for teams with shaky kickers. Greg Joseph has already missed four extra points this year. Is it that much riskier to go for two twice down 21-13? But again, it was an example of O’Connell failing to take Detroit head-on. Why not trust your kicker and make a decision on a two-point conversion later in the game? Why potentially cede momentum on the road by failing the two-point conversion?
The Vikings only scored 23 points on a day when Jefferson broke Sammy White’s single-game franchise receiving record. The Lions held Jefferson to a career-low 14 yards in Week 3, but Jefferson routinely broke free on Sunday. He finished with 223 yards and would have had a touchdown, but the officials took one away from him.
Jefferson wasn’t the only pass-catcher who played well, though.
- Cousins was 31/41 for 425 yards and two touchdowns.
- Hockenson had six receptions for 77 yards, despite a drop on third-and-nine early in the second quarter.
- Thielen had seven catches for 65 yards and a touchdown.
- And Ypsilanti, Mich. native K.J. Osborn, who caught the game-winner in Week 3, had five catches for 38 yards and a score.
Still, Minnesota didn’t muster enough points. That’s a shame, given that this game would have sealed the division for them. The Vikings have often complained about not getting enough respect, despite their 10-3 record. But they didn’t play like a 10-win team on Sunday. They played like a team that had to steal one on the road against the five-win Lions rather than a group that just needs to have a solid effort to win a game in a hostile environment. Detroit was favored by 2.5 points, not 10.
