It’s Packers Week, and the shoe is on the other foot for this border battle rivalry. Since Aaron Rodgers became the starter in 2008, it’s usually been the Green Bay Packers that already had the division locked up in the final weeks of the regular season. Usually, their focus is on stacking wins to maintain postseason seeding within the NFC, especially lately. Since Matt LaFleur became head coach in 2019, the Packers have won 13 regular season games and breezed through the NFC North in each of the past three seasons. Conversely, the Vikings were a middling team under grizzled and grouchy Mike Zimmer fighting tooth and nail to get above .500. But as the calendar turns to January, it’s the Minnesota Vikings in Year 1 of the Kevin O’Connell era that are looking to reach 13 victories for the first time since 2017.
Talk about a role reversal, eh?
While beating the Packers is always important in any season, the Vikings simply have bigger fish to fry than to have the fanbase put their collective emotional eggs into this singular Week 17 basket at Lambeau Field. Regardless of their opponent, Minnesota must win to keep hold of the No. 2 seed in the NFC. That way, U.S. Bank Stadium will remain the site for the Divisional Round against (probably) the San Francisco 49ers — as long as the Vikings don’t get bounced at home on wild card weekend to the NFC’s No. 7 seed.
Lose to the Packers on Sunday? Well, then Minnesota is probably tasked with having to go to Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara to take on the Niners if both teams make it out of the opening round. Even if the Vikings and 49ers end the regular season with the same record, San Francisco owns the tiebreaker because of their superior record against NFC West opponents.
Nothing is more important for Minnesota than winning right now. However, as part of said bigger fish to fry, Justin Jefferson is on the precipice of NFL history. The third-year receiver is 209 yards away from breaking Calvin Johnson‘s all-time single-season receiving yardage record that he set in 2012. With the NFL adding a 17th regular-season game last season, odds are pretty high that Jefferson will eventually break the record. It’s just a matter of when.
But like the New York Yankees and all baseball fans back in 1961 who were cringing at the idea of Roger Maris breaking Babe Ruth’s single-season home run record after Major League Baseball added 10 regular-season games that season, the NFL world is already trying to downplay Jefferson’s historic season if it requires 17 games to do it.
But what if O’Connell suddenly draws inspiration this week from the late, great T.C. Williams defensive coordinator Bill Yoast from Remember the Titans?
Think about it. It’s kinda sorta the ultimate kill-two-birds-with-one-stone scenario. The Vikings get a much-needed win to keep hold of the No. 2 seed, and the NFL’s biggest non-quarterback star doesn’t have to deal with the talking heads trying to diminish his historic campaign. And if you just so happen to have a particular distaste for our Cheesehead-wearing, beer-for-breakfast friends to the east, it’s more of a trifecta because the Packers will essentially be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss.
On the surface, 209 receiving yards in a single game seems like an outrageous ask for Jefferson in Week 17. But let’s not forget that just three weeks ago, Jefferson set the franchise record with 223 yards against the Detroit Lions. It’s also worth mentioning that Jefferson already has a 184-yard game under his belt against the Packers in Week 1. What’s interesting about those two occurrences is that the Lions and Packers rely heavily on two-high defenses, meaning that both of their safeties are removed from the box, attempting to take away the big play. While the Lions prefer more two-man coverages under defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, the Packers have one of the league’s highest zone-coverage rates with defensive coordinator Joe Barry.
Despite Barry’s zone-coverage tendencies this season, Jefferson mentioned Thursday that he expects Green Bay’s All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander to spend more snaps in man coverage against him this time around. And according to Alexander, Jefferson’s 184-yard outburst in Week 1 was a “fluke.”
Well, this just got a little more interesting, didn’t it?
If Barry grants Alexander his wish by allowing him to go mano a mano with Jefferson, the Vikings would likely welcome the opportunity with open arms. Shoot, even two-man coverages with safety help over the top hasn’t fared too well against Jefferson this year. Just last week against the New York Giants, Jefferson came up huge on a beautiful dig route after the man-corner had inside leverage, only to have Jefferson win it back in front of the safety on Minnesota’s crunch-time touchdown.
O’Connell often talks about “hunting a look” in his postgame press conferences when asked about particular passing plays. This just means that he’s trying to bait the defense into a particular coverage that will allow him to dial up a certain concept that he likes against it. And if the goal is to entice Barry, Alexander, and the Packers into man-coverage against Jefferson, then it might as well be “Fish On!” for all you braver-than-me ice fishermen and fisherwomen out there.
O’Connell brought some of his favorite man-beaters from his time with Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams with him to Minnesota. Most notably, his beloved 3×1 wheel concept from just outside the red zone — which again was put on display last week for T.J. Hockenson. While O’Connell hasn’t necessarily dialed it up for Jefferson with regularity this year, The Best Receiver On the Planet was able to generate an explosive play off it back in Week 6 against the Miami Dolphins. If the Packers want to go man, don’t be surprised if O’Connell double dips in consecutive weeks with this wheel concept for No. 18.
Last year with the Rams, O’Connell and McVay often put Cooper Kupp in the backfield to isolate him against a safety, linebacker, or nickel when they identified man coverages. Notice how Kupp snatches the safety’s ankles with the subtle jab step to the outside before cutting up field on the seam.
Remember the Vikings’ victory last season against the Packers inside U.S. Bank Stadium? Jefferson scored on Barry’s defense after he lined up in the backfield and was isolated against the safety in man coverage. This could be another lever that O’Connell pulls against man.
If Barry decides against going with an extensive amount of man coverage, expect O’Connell and the Vikings to continue to attack Green Bay’s zone coverages with intermediate-to-deep crossers. In the first-half of the season, the Packers allowed a 134.3 passer rating (!!!) when opposing offenses implemented at least one crossing route against their zone coverage — which was second-worst in the entire league. Jefferson’s Week 1 torch job played a part in Green Bay’s abysmal stretch of coverages against crossing routes. No one’s ever paid me for my two cents on defensive football, so I suggest taking this with grain of salt, but I would probably put a defender or two on No.18. Just a thought, Joe Barry.
O’Connell is the other side to this coin — like other offensive-minded head coaches such as Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, or his old boss McVay — could be waiting until the playoffs before unleashing new concepts. Historically, these three coaches have taken full advantage of their final few weeks of the regular season by tinkering with new ideas/plays on the board and/or in practice before putting them on film in win-or-go-home games.
Remember San Francisco’s Divisional round game last year against the Packers at Lambeau? The football world had never seen left tackle Trent Williams lined up as an eligible, only for him to be sent in motion on a critical third-down toss play for Elijah Mitchell. This is exactly what the best offensive minds in the game do for their most important players in the biggest of games. O’Connell very well could exercise patience instead of giving Jefferson never-before-seen route schemes in Week 17 against the Packers.
In a perfect world, the next chapter of Minnesota’s dream season includes the Vikings beating their bitter rival with Jefferson erupting for 209-plus yards to set the NFL’s single-season receiving record. But would it be too much to ask for Jefferson to pay homage to Randy Moss by concluding his end zone Griddy with a moon for the drunk-off-their-asses Packers fans?
I like to think Tony Romo and Jim Nantz would have a far greater appreciation for this particular act of heroism than Joe Buck did from the 2004 season.
