Whether fans like it or not, the Twins’ off-season has been defined by bold moves. They traded two of their best right-handed hitters in Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver, essentially for salary relief. Bold.
They traded Chase Petty, their top pick in last year’s draft, for two years of club control over veteran starter Sonny Gray. Also pretty bold.
They shocked the baseball world by signing superstar shortstop Carlos Correa to a contract that pretty much any team would be on board with. And it was bold and beautiful.
On the other end, they decided to fill their other two rotation vacancies with reclamation projects Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. That was a decision that left many underwhelmed, but it was a bold move nonetheless.
With these commitments setting the stage for a wild 2022 season, it’s hard to imagine this year being lackluster, for better or worse. With that said, here are three bold predictions for the Twins’ 2022 campaign that is sure to follow suit.
The Twins will have two rookies surpass 2.0 fWAR. Neither will be Royce Lewis or Austin Martin.
Even though they are starting their seasons in the minors, there is much fanfare surrounding the top two prospects in Minnesota’s system. It’s not terribly difficult to see one of Lewis or Martin starting hot and jumping up to the big leagues at some point this year. But Lewis is coming off of two lost seasons and Martin is going to begin just his second minor league season in Double-A. Both have a tall hill to climb if they are to make any substantial impact on the big league club this year. Certainly not impossible, but the writing on the wall is pretty clear, especially if they expect to grab hold of the shortstop position at some point. With Correa firmly entrenched there for at least a few months, that feels unlikely to happen in 2022.
Instead, the Twins have an exciting group of emerging prospects who could see major roles on the team this year. Breakout sensation Jose Miranda is likely to take over at third base if he picks up where he left off in 2021, and his path to playing time is much clearer. All it takes is an ugly stretch from Gio Urshela to get him a chance at securing the starting job. Sure, Luis Arraez can also play third, but he also has some nagging injuries and a natural platoon split with Gary Sanchez at designated hitter.
Jhoan Duran and Josh Winder could emerge as valuable assets in the bullpen in the near future, and the latter could see himself transitioning to the rotation if one of the incumbents falters. With both players having fantastic springs, they could rack up strikeouts about as fast as any rookie duo in the league.
While just barely making the cut, Opening Day starter Joe Ryan is still technically a rookie. Look for him to get a long leash in-season, and if the Twins hope to have sustained success in 2022, he will almost assuredly need to be one of the two successful rookies in this prediction.
Devin Smeltzer will start more MLB games than Bailey Ober
Going into the off-season, the Twins had two names penciled into their starting rotation picture: Ryan and Ober. They both had impressive debuts in 2021, and they both look like great options for years to come. However, Ober seemed to lose some gas in his final four starts of the season. While his overall stat line was a nice 4.19 ERA (4.56 FIP) in 92.1 innings pitched, he pitched his final 17.1 innings on the year to the tune of a 5.09 ERA (5.04 FIP) with a sky-high 2.55 home runs per nine innings.
Ober got through the year by leaning heavily on his fastball, which got him really good results for the most part. He had pinpoint accuracy with that heater, and he racked up plenty of misses when he was able to elevate it. Hitters chased 32% of his fastballs out of the zone, good for 3rd-highest in all of baseball among qualified starters according to Inside Edge. The problem was his lack of a true out pitch. Opponents had a .557 slugging percentage on his sliders (4th-highest in MLB), and he allowed 12 home runs with two strikes (5th-most in MLB).
Smeltzer certainly isn’t guaranteed to carry over the success he had this spring. But if he’s anywhere close to the guy we saw in Fort Myers, he should be back in the big leagues in no time. In 11 spring innings, Smeltzer didn’t give up a single run, and he racked up nine strikeouts with just two walks. Look for him to establish himself with the Saints early on, while being the first man up if things go awry for anyone in the current Twins rotation.
Miguel Sanó will lead the AL in home runs at the midway point of the season, and he will be named an AL All-Star
What could go wrong with this one?
Sanó is one of the streakiest players to ever don a Twins cap. This was certainly true in his 2021 campaign, where his first-half stat line (.196/.279/.426, 91 wRC+) looked like a completely different player compared to his second-half numbers (.250/.343/.509, 129 wRC+). Sanó’s strikeout rate has become cemented among the league leaders, and that approach is unlikely to change. However, that doesn’t mean it’s impossible for him to be a productive player or even an All-Star. If his spring stats are any indication of where we are on the Miggy Offensive Wave (MOW™), then Twins fans could be in for an exciting stretch. He played in 14 spring training games, with a .235/.366/.529 slash line and three towering home runs. Stretch those numbers to a span of a few months, and he would be looking at 17-20 bombs before the All-Star break.
Sanó’s inclusion on the All-Star roster would be based on a hot start and a lackluster field among first basemen in the league. In the AL East, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is bound to take up one roster spot, probably as a starter. Then there’s Anthony Rizzo of the New York Yankees, who is coming off of a mediocre 2021 by his standards. There isn’t a major threat to secure a spot after that. The AL Central has José Abreu looming as a potential All-Star, but he is also entering his age 35 season. Will he be able to keep up his production from the last few years? The same can be said for Yuli Gurriel in the AL West, who turns 39 later this year.
Does Sanó have a clear path to being honored as an All-Star? Maybe not, but that’s what makes this prediction bold.
